Ukraine’s civilian death toll is much closer to 100,000 than 10,000 victims
Media platforms keep citing the UN’s official figure of 10,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, but even the UN admits that the real figure is “significantly higher”
What is happening here?
The problem with the UN’s official data
The UN’s methodology for verifying casualties requires officials on the ground working with the local authorities. In many conflicts, the UN has some access to both sides. But without proper access, the UN can’t collect and verify any data.
In almost two years of the full-scale war, the UN has only had access to the territories controlled by Ukraine. Moscow has blocked the UN’s access to all the Russia-occupied territories, making it impossible for international organizations to collect any data.
Why Russia doesn’t let the UN do its job
Russia’s complete blockade of the UN’s work is not new. Since the start of the 2022 invasion, Russia has used its veto power many times to block the Security Council’s resolutions and peace efforts.
Russia abuses its position to sabotage the UN’s work and render the organization useless. It has done so repeatedly regarding Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, and Mali, among others.
This has allowed Russia not only to face zero accountability for its multiple crimes but also to kill international justice efforts at their root.
Which civilian deaths have been counted?
The ten thousand identified Ukrainian civilians who died because of the invasion were mostly
people who died because of Russia’s long-range missile or drone attacks all over Ukraine
people who had been killed by the Russians under the occupation, and whose towns were then liberated by Ukraine
But people killed in areas with heavy fighting or under continuous Russian occupation – the most dangerous spots in Ukraine – aren’t counted at all.
How big is the UN’s blind spot in data?
It’s enormous. The total area of Ukraine that has remained under Russian occupation since 2022 is roughly 1.5 times larger than the size of Denmark or Switzerland.
Areas heavily bombed and occupied by Russia since 2022 include Mariupol (population of 450,000), Severodonetsk (106,000), Lysychansk (99,000), Bakhmut (73,000), Volnovakha (21,000). Hundreds more towns were completely wiped out by Russia’s indiscriminate fire. The UN has zero verified information from these areas.
So, how many civilians have died in Ukraine?
Until all of Ukraine’s territory is fully liberated, we can’t know the exact number of civilian deaths. But we do have some approximate numbers.
Take just Mariupol. The estimations based on local data and recent mass grave sites concluded that anywhere from 25,000 to 75,000 residents were murdered during Russia’s siege of the city.
By scaling this figure on all of the occupied land and adding the UN’s figure, we can safely assume that Russia has killed more than 100,000 civilians in Ukraine in just under two years of the invasion.
Russia kills Ukraine’s civilians in many ways
The problem with assessing Ukraine’s civilian casualties lies beyond deaths caused by fighting.
Russia has created a system of filtration camps and prisons aimed to detain, torture, and murder Ukrainians. Thousands of Ukrainians are held in these prisons, and many of them get killed. Again, the UN has zero access to these institutions.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has genocidal motives, which makes it hard to evaluate the casualties using conventional methodology.
The problem with citing the UN’s figure
The UN admits its data on civilian casualties in Ukraine is a gross underestimation. Experts and journalists are also aware of it. But the figure gets cited in the news anyway – and that is a problem.
Not only the UN’s figure has become a handy tool for Russian propaganda, but it’s also been used to underestimate Russia’s war crimes and the magnitude of suffering in Ukraine.
The UN’s figure brings more harm than good. Instead of helping us achieve justice, it is used to whitewash the aggressor and accept inaction.
How to cover Ukraine’s civilian casualties
First of all, we need to stop citing the UN’s 10K figure without any added context. People who insist on using this figure are spreading deliberate misinformation – as simple as that.
But it’s not enough to simply mention that the casualties might be higher than 10K. This framing still leaves too much space for manipulations.
We need to keep repeating that the official figure is flawed and to always emphasize that the real number of civilian deaths in Ukraine is much closer to 100,000 than 10,000 people.
Ukraine’s victory is the only path to truth
The only way for the world to investigate the true scale of human loss caused by Russia’s invasion is through Ukraine’s victory.
International organizations will be able to access sites and investigate crimes only if Ukraine liberates all of its lands, just as it did in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.
For now, our only hope to see the whole picture lies in continuous military and strategic support of Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat.