The draft is finally upon us. For the prospect enthusiasts out there, this is our Super Bowl. All the fun starts tomorrow, which means that it's time to release my draft rankings today! These rankings are unique in the public hockey sphere; they use both consensus scout opinions and my model's outputs. I want to first explain how this works, so there aren't any questions on how these rankings were made.
The premise here is that by combining how scouts are ranking this class and how my model sees it, I can create rankings that should be very accurate, and by past draft classes, this seems to work pretty well. It's a small sample, but for drafts where players have had time to develop and I could find enough scout data, this approach works better than solely scouts or solely the model in 3 out of 5 past drafts.
For the two drafts where combining the two wasn't the best method, it turns out that my model was the most accurate, a good sign that my stuff is good :)
The error value comes from the average difference in draft pick value between where a player was ranked and what rank they currently have in career point shares among the entire class (thank you Hockey Reference!!!). By using draft pick value, ranking the best player 15th versus ranking the 50th best player 35th have different and more accurate error scores, even though the actual number of slots is the same. A larger error number is bad. Here are the exact numbers now that we know what they mean...
Like I said, it's only 5 drafts so far, but it shows that doing this has evidence for working. The next question is how exactly are scout and model ranks combined?
I use two different value curves to give each rank a different value that gives higher rankings exponentially more value than lower rankings. The curve for the scout ranks comes from Dom Luszczyszyn's draft pick value chart. You can find his methodology here.
The curve for model ranks was trickier to find. I was using the same curve as the scout rankings for a while, but it led to some unranked by scouts but model favorites being ranked much higher than I was comfortable with. This made sense to me since there is typically a steeper drop-off at the top in how scouts see the draft versus how close odds usually are for the models' favorite players.
I decided to make a new curve that would have the same amount of total pick value but wouldn't be as extreme at the top to better display what it's worth be be ranked relative to other draft prospects. Here's what the two curves look like together.
The blue curve is for model ranks, and the red is for the scouts. Both curves have the same area under them, which is needed since both curves need to assign the same amount of total value to the draft. I used a 50-50 mix for these rankings. Here's how that works for Matthew Schaefer, who is my #1 ranked prospect.
Schaefer is ranked 1st overall by the scouts which corresponds to a value of 1000. My model has him as the 10th best prospect which corresponds to a value of 296.45. This means that Schaefer's total 50-50 combined value is 1000 / 2 + 296.45 / 2 = 648.23. No prospect in this class has a higher ranking value, and that's why Schaefer comes in 1st overall.
This has to be the longest intro to a draft ranking ever, but I think it's needed to be fully transparent on how it's created. My personal opinion does not affect these rankings. It's all model and consensus scout opinion only.
The scout rank that you'll see mentioned under each player's name comes from a combination of these 15 public rankings: Scott Wheeler, Bob McKenzie, Dobber Prospects, Corey Pronman, Andrew Forbes, Ryan Kennedy, Jason Bukala, Craig Button, Chris Peters, Cam Robinson, Dayton Reimer, Steven Ellis, Austin Kelly, Smaht Scouting, and Rachel Doerrie. All of these people and teams have spent thousands of hours working on this class. This project wouldn't be possible without their opinions. Make sure you go support all of them and their work, they all deserve it!
Let's finally get into the rankings with Matthew Schaefer at 1st overall...
#1 - Matthew Schaefer, LD, Erie Otters (OHL)
Scout Rank: 1st | Model Rank: 10th
The way scouts describe Matthew Schaefer is everything that you could want from a #1 defenseman and a first overall selection. He is an elite skater who played big minutes in every game that he played this season. On top of the elite offensive upside, he's a very good defender as well, making him projectable as a two-way guy.
You may notice that my model isn't as high on Schaefer as you would expect, and the reason for that is simple. He only played 17 games this season. That wouldn't be a problem if he played like a 1st overall pick last season but the fact of the matter is that he wasn't. Nobody had him at 1st overall before this season started. He played well last year, considering his age at the time, but not enough to give the model enough confidence to greatly increase his projection in those 17 games. He still comes in at number 1 on my rankings due to how valuable it is to be ranked 1st by the scouts. With a hopefully full season next year, the model should catch up to the public sphere on how it views Schaefer.
#2 - Michael Misa, C/LW, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Scout Rank: 2nd | Model Rank: 1st
Michael Misa is both a model and a scout favorite and thus finds himself at 2nd overall. Hype around Misa started early, as an exceptional status player, he has not disappointed thus far in his career. He was the CHL's top scorer this season, which is an extremely impressive feat for a draft-year player. Misa is a great skater and a very smart player who is strong defensively as well. He is everything you could want from a future #1 center.
Model-wise, Michael Misa has been the best projected player for the past few months after battling it out with other centers earlier in the year. He took a big step production-wise to see an increase in star odds of around 40%. I'd expect him to play in the NCAA next season if he doesn't make the NHL, which also seems to be the rumor going around prospect circles. If I were picking 1st overall, I would take Misa 90% of the time.
#3 - Porter Martone, RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Scout Rank: 3rd | Model Rank: 2nd
Porter Martone is a perfect power forward in today's game. His size and physicality play a big role in his game, but aren't the only things scouts like about him (unlike other big man skate good prospects). His shot, combined with his ability to make plays happen, makes him a strong sniper and playmaker in addition to his power forward play style. He will be a guy that teams fall in love with because of how recent the playoffs just were.
He's also a great prospect analytically. Martone was my model's favorite prospect at times this year, but ended the season at second overall. On top of his impressive draft year, he came into the season with a very strong profile. Heading into this season, he was already a very safe bet to make the NHL. His floor stayed the same; it was his ceiling that saw a bump from how he played this year.
#4 - Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 5th | Model Rank: 6th
Desnoyers finished the season very strong with a successful postseason, where he scored 30 points in 19 playoff games. His offensive skill is elite. He's a skilled playmaker who makes stuff happen everywhere, but it's not only his offensive game that scouts love. He's also one of the best defensive players in this draft class. With the success that Aleksander Barkov has brought to the Panthers recently, it's hard to see how teams won't be thrilled to select Desnoyers early.
He's also always been a guy that my model has liked. Even last season, the model saw him as a possible star forward, which is the exact same projection that he has now. His star odds increased slightly this season, but his very positive progression over the past two seasons is a great sign for success at the next level.
#5 - James Hagens, C, Boston College (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 4th | Model Rank: 18th
James Hagens will be an interesting case study, but first, let's talk about what the scouts see in him. His biggest strengths are his hands and his speed. He's also a strong playmaker, but the main concern with him is his frame and play style. While some worry he spends too much time on the outside edges of the zone, his elite skills remain undeniable.
Coming into this season, Hagens was a guaranteed star in the eyes of the model. He was dominant in the US Development Program as a 16/17 year old, one of the best the program had ever seen. What you would expect to follow a season like that in the NCAA would be well above a point per game and possibly even Hobey Baker contention. That didn't happen this year. Hagens was solid but not exceptional, which is what was expected. That regression is worrying to the model, but because of how good he already is, he still has a solid projection.
#6 - Jake O'Brien, C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
Scout Rank: 8th | Model Rank: 3rd
Jake O'Brien has had two very solid seasons in the OHL. He was one of the top scorers in the league this season and still isn't getting the respect that I think he deserves. His playmaking and hockey IQ are his strengths, which is exactly what you want to aim for when drafting this early. Many scouts worry about his frame, but it's important to consider that he's just a kid and will grow into his body as he ages. The skill he possesses will take him very far. If you're a team looking for a first-line center, O'Brien is your guy.
My model has O'Brien as the 3rd best player in this class. He was impressive in his D-1 and continued on that OHL Rookie Team momentum to have an even better draft season. The progression he's had is ideal for maintaining his very good odds from last year, and why he finished the season so high in the model's eyes.
#7 - Brady Martin, C, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)
Scout Rank: 10th | Model Rank: 13th
What scouts love about Martin is his physically imposing play style. He plays a lot bigger than he is, which makes many scouts see a pro-ready game out of him. He was heavily relied upon this season in the OHL and was a leader for his team. Martin's skills on both ends of the ice also give hope that he can become something great in the NHL.
Brady Martin is the first guy in these draft rankings who comes in higher than both his individual scout and model ranks. The reason for that is that he's jumping guys that either the model or the scouts don't like as the other. Players like Martin have been good targets historically since they pass both the eye test and the stats test.
#8 - Cole Reschny, F, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Scout Rank: 17th | Model Rank: 4th
Cole Reschny is the first model favorite of this ranking, a guy that my model loves that doesn't get the same respect from many scouts. Every year, there are guys like Reschny: players that are "undersized" who possess skill worth a high selection, yet scouts worry about their frame, and let these players drop.
Reschny's hockey IQ is extremely high, and that will allow him to play in a way where you won't even notice how "small" he is. He was a stud in the WHL this season and will take the next step at the University of North Dakota next season. Whoever takes a swing on Reschny in the late lottery or soon after will be picking up a player that my model sees as most likely to become a star over anything else.
#9 - Anton Frondell, C, Djurgårdens IF (HockeyAllsvenskan)
Scout Rank: 6th | Model Rank: 45th
Frondell is the opposite of a model favorite. Most scouts have him as one of the best players in this class, and some would even take him at 2nd overall. My model doesn't even see him as a 1st round selection. All of this makes sense when you consider that what scouts like about Frondell is his two-way game and not any type of elite offensive ceiling.
I also want to quickly address something about Frondell's "historic" production this season. Yes, his Allsvenskan point pace is the highest ever for a U18 player with any sort of significant games played. But that was done in a league whose NHLe has fallen 31% in the past 10 years. He also played 10 games in the J20, where his production was pretty lackluster. His raw production indeed seems good. It just needs context.
If you're drafting Frondell, you can probably feel comfortable that you're getting a solid two-way middle-six center. If you're hoping to also get a point per game player and a consistent all-star, then I think you're aiming too high.
#10 - Carter Bear, C/LW, Everett Silvertips (WHL)
Scout Rank: 13th | Model Rank: 15th
Carter Bear suffered a brutal injury in March when part of his Achilles was lacerated, but he is thankfully recovering faster than anticipated. He's described as one of the more physical players in this class who knows exactly how to use his body to gain an advantage in tight space. On top of that, he's also very skilled and can drive the play on his own.
He's on the older side of this draft class, but his production was high enough that, once age-adjusted, it still was impressive. He's a guy that both the model and scouts like and thus feels deserving of the final spot in the top ten.
#11 - Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgårdens IF (HockeyAllsvenskan)
Scout Rank: 7th | Model Rank: 42nd
While Victor Eklund and Anton Frondell have major differences in how they play, they are very similar in terms of how my model sees them. Scouts say that Eklund has good traits such as skating, skill, and IQ, but my model just doesn't see his production this year as that impressive.
I have a feeling that many scouts overvalue the AllSvenskan since it feels like the prospects that play there are always rated higher by scouts than by my model. It seems like Eklund will play in the SHL next season, so we'll quickly see how well his AllSvenskan production translates there.
#12 - Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 14th | Model Rank: 16th
Carbonneau has an offensive game that many scouts like. His hands are skilled, and he also has a shot that can beat goalies pretty often. While he is one of the older players in this age group, his production took an impressive leap from last season, which lines up with what was expected for his projection to remain relatively similar.
His odds have stayed pretty much the same from last season, giving him a projection of a possible impact forward. There's a decent shot that he ends up becoming a star, but it'll all depend on how he develops. Whether that's in the NCAA or somewhere else, we will hopefully find out soon.
#13 - Benjamin Kindel, RW, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
Scout Rank: 21st | Model Rank: 7th
Kindel is another guy who you could call a model favorite. He also has been on a constant upward trajectory this entire draft cycle. He started the season not even ranked in the top 50, but just kept rising in rankings until he finally settled in the late 1st for the end of the year. He's a highly skilled and very smart player who was amazing in the WHL this season for Calgary.
Those smarts and skills are going to be what carry him to a successful NHL career. I'd expect Kindel to go in the late teens/early twenties and quickly look like a draft steal. He's a lot like Cole Reschny model-wise, so if you miss out on Reschny earlier in the draft, Kindel is someone with a very similar profile who seems will be just as successful at the next level.
#14 - Roger McQueen, F, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
Scout Rank: 9th | Model Rank: 51st
McQueen is one of the more polarizing players in this draft class. His frame and play style are ones that scouts have a tough time not falling in love with while dreaming about the next Tage Thompson. McQueen plays a big boy physical style, but he had trouble staying consistent this year, mainly due to the injuries that he was dealing with.
His stats are rather unimpressive to the model, however. His production didn't improve that much over last season. Considering him being one of the oldest players in this class, that's not a great sign in a year he should have been dominating (especially at his size). Yes, I'm sure injuries had a huge part in that. Doesn't mean you should just ignore this season because he only played 17 games; the exact opposite thing is happening with Schaefer.
#15 - Jackson Smith, LD, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
Scout Rank: 12th | Model Rank: 37th
Jackson Smith is the best defenseman after Matthew Schaefer at first in what is a relatively weak defensive class. Most scouts like Smith more than my model does. They describe Smith as a trusted defenseman with a strong playmaking side and a decent defensive one too. While there are concerns about some of his decisions, he has what you look for in a modern defenseman.
Smith's odds this season are the same as they were last year, meaning he progressed as expected. My model projects him as a second-pair guy if he makes it to the league, but it isn't completely certain he gets there. He's got a lot to put together, so we'll see how that goes. We'll also see if a team is desperate enough for a defenseman that they decide to select him earlier than we expect.
#16 - Braeden Cootes, C, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
Scout Rank: 15th | Model Rank: 32nd
This year's CHL class is so stacked. Thirteen out of the sixteen highest-rated players are from either the OHL, QMJHL, or WHL, and Braeden Cootes is up next. He's a trusted center who played just about everywhere for Seattle this season. He played well on the powerplay, penalty kill, and on both sides of the 5v5 game. Scouts aren't sure if Cootes will develop into a top-six guy, but they all see a solid and dependable bottom-six player at the worst.
Model-wise, he projects as a late 1st-rounder. Since both scouts and model like him well, so he jumps other players who aren't as favorable to both sides. If you're drafting Cootes, you're aiming for security and less so upside.
#17 - Jack Murtagh, C/LW, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 30th | Model Rank: 11th
Murtagh is one of the youngest players in this draft class, and despite that, still produced very well on a subpar NTDP team this season relative to past seasons. He's described as a great skater with NHL-level skills as well. There are concerns about trying to make plays happen that just aren't there.
He'll be playing at Boston University next season. It's a great school, and I could easily see him being very successful there. My model has liked his past two years at the program, so it expects him to take that next step.
#18 - Kashawn Aitcheson, LD, Barrie Colts (OHL)
Scout Rank: 18th | Model Rank: 33rd
Aitcheson's strengths are his physicality and defensive play. He was a minute muncher for Barrie this year and put up solid results while doing it. He also has a very strong shot that has gotten him a good number of goals this season. He's always looking to lay someone out and will be a guy that other teams look out for.
Most of the time, when a player has a profile like Aitcheson, it's because they didn't produce much offense and their physically is all you can talk about in a positive light. That's not the case here. Aitcheson put up solid numbers this season, which makes the model confident he has the offensive tools to make it. Add it the defensive and physical skills he also has, and you're looking at a solid top-four guy.
#19 - Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Scout Rank: 32nd | Model Rank: 14th
Cameron Schmidt is this year's 1st round talent who will get drafted much later because of his size. He has all the tools you could want from an undersized guy; he's an elite skater with a great shot as well. He also works very hard, once again, something that's seen as crucial for a small guy to make it. Most scouts see him as a middle-six winger, pretty similar to how my model sees him as well.
Some examples of other undersized forwards in past drafts that have been ranked similarly to Schmidt by both my model and scouts are Logan Stankoven, Seth Jarvis, Kailer Yamamoto, and Alex DeBrincat. If I'm picking in the late 1st, I'd take a chance on Schmidt.
#20 - Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
Scout Rank: 16th | Model Rank: 41st
One of Lakovic's best traits is his ability to protect the puck. He's a big guy at 6'4" who skates well, making his transition game another strength of his. He was an offensive threat the entire season, but some scouts worry about his compete level.
His production also wasn't anything crazy this season. Yes, it's important to mention that he played on a bad Moose Jaw team, but he still is on the older side of his age group, so you could have expected more from a guy ranked inside the lottery by a lot of scouts.
#21 - Radim Mrtka, RD, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
Scout Rank: 11th | Model Rank: 108th
Radim Mrtka is the type of defenseman that many scouts and managers dream about, so it makes sense to see him ranked so high by them. They describe him as an elite skater who played big minutes in Seattle and was heavily relied upon. He's a good defender who can use his size very well to close gaps and take away lanes.
His production in the WHL was good, but you can't leave out what he did back in Europe. He played a decent amount of games there and just didn't produce very much. I do worry we are falling into the "big-man skate-good" cliché with Mrtka. Defenders like Silayev and Simashev had very similar rankings in the past, but it's still too early to label any of them as anything yet. Time will tell how all these guys end up panning out.
#22 - Cameron Reid, LD, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
Scout Rank: 19th | Model Rank: 44th
Reid is described as a smart defender who uses his skating to play a mobile style, which helps him close down a lot of what the other team wants to try offensively. Most scouts see him as a two-way defender at the next level, which seems about right with what the model thinks as well.
Outside of Schaefer, this draft class is made up of a lot of defenders who are ranked very similarly, with the exception of how my model sees Mrtka. Reid is no different from the others; his production has been good, but nothing special to give him a crazy projection.
#23 - Ryker Lee, F, Madison Capitals (USHL)
Scout Rank: 29th | Model Rank: 26th
Ryker Lee is ranked pretty much the same by both model and scouts. His offensive game is his strength, where he's an elite playmaker with great hands as well. His shot is also worthy of making scouts talk about him. The concerns with Lee are on the defensive end, where he oftentimes misses coverages, and his skating, which was enough in the USHL but maybe not in the NHL.
Lee will be playing at Michigan State next season, and if all goes well, he has top-six upside because of his offensive tools. Since he is on the older side, it's important to consider that when looking at his stats this season, but playing at MSU will be an appropriate next step for Lee.
#24 - Bill Zonnon, LW, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 24th | Model Rank: 34th
Zonnon is a hard-working forward who can really move on the ice. His play style is one that scouts easily see translating over to the NHL because of how well he plays off the puck. He also has good size for the pros, meaning he truly checks off every box that scouts look for in an NHLer.
Many say that Zonnon will be a bottom-sixer at worst, with potential to become a top-six guy. My model would agree, it sees the most likely outcome in the NHL for him as a middle-six player. Not bad for a late 1st-round pick.
#25 - Jérémy Loranger, C, Sherwood Park Crusaders (BCHL)
Scout Rank: 199th | Model Rank: 5th
Who? It's an appropriate reaction for this. Loranger is the first of three BCHL players coming up, all from the same line. Playing in the BCHL, it's very safe to assume that he was underscouted, with most scouts focusing on the bigger CHL leagues, but I wish he had been looked at like other top prospects in this class.
His production this season was insane. He scored 105 points in 54 BCHL games, a pace of 160 points for a full 82-game season. I think he's easily worth a late-round flyer for a guy who might develop exceptionally at the next level. He'll be playing in the NCAA at the University of Nebraska-Omaha next season. It'll be a great test to see just how good he can become, and because of that, I think it's more likely he gets drafted next year than this year, if I had to guess.
#26 - William Moore, C, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 37th | Model Rank: 22nd
Moore is described as a center with speed and skill, but who doesn't always know how to use it. He didn't drive the play much this year, which put some scouts majorly off his game. Despite this, he has shown flashes that he can use his speed and skill to be a legit offensive weapon.
Model-wise, he gets a nice boost from his strong U18s, but other than that, his NTDP numbers didn't increase much since last season. He still produced enough to have good odds, but they have seen a pretty significant dip from his pre-draft year.
#27 - Sascha Boumedienne, LD, Boston University (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 26th | Model Rank: 35th
Boumedienne is a very smooth skater but has some concerns with his decision-making. He's described as having a good defensive stick and can close on gaps very well. This season was an adjustment for him; he played in the NCAA as a 17-year-old and thus didn't get much playing time on a blueline with other lefties like Cole Hutson and other more experienced guys.
As the season went on, however, he started to be more confident and figured things out. The U18s are a perfect example of just how good he can become. Before the tournament, he had an NHLe of 5.6. His 14 points in 7 U18 games, good for an NHLe of 27.8, brought his final season equivalency up to 8.9. Yes, it's a small sample size, but with more ice time and opportunity, Boumedienne could develop well.
#28 - Kale Dach, C, Sherwood Park Crusaders (BCHL)
Scout Rank: 127th | Model Rank: 8th
Kale Dach is part two of the Sherwood Park super line and the most likely to get drafted. He is slightly taller than Loranger before him and plays a style that more scouts see as translatable. He's a strong playmaker and also has a high hockey IQ.
I think it's safe to say that if he played in the WHL this year instead of the BCHL, he'd be ranked higher by a lot of scouts. As it turns out, Dach will play for the Calgary Hitmen next season before taking his talents to Penn State. He'll likely be a 4th to 6th-round guy, but he'll be one of the better projections drafted in that range.
#29 - Donato Bracco, LD, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 168th | Model Rank: 9th
Donato Bracco is a high-ceiling but low-floor type of prospect. He only appears on one draft list that I'm using, and even then, it's in the honorable mention section. He wasn't even ranked by Central Scouting, which means to me that it's unlikely he gets drafted this year. Bracco has great sense and skills, which will hopefully help him make more of a name for himself at the next level.
He'll be playing at Harvard next season, so he'll be relied upon a lot on that team, which is still a great program that's produced solid NHL talent. Fun fact: Donato's brother, Jeremy Bracco, was a Leafs draft pick in 2015 and also a model favorite. Hopefully, an NHL career works out better for Donato than it did for his brother.
#30 - Philippe Veilleux, W, Val-d'Or Foreurs (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 94th | Model Rank: 12th
Veilleux was one of the QMJHL's best players this season, but will likely be available even in the third round because he's an undersized winger. It also doesn't help that scouts don't see much in Veilleux's defensive game. Offensively, however, he's very creative and hard to defend.
Because of the limited projection outside of his defense, most scouts see him as a bottom-six guy you could plug into the powerplay. My model is way higher on him; his production was impressive this year, and with the right development, it sees a way for him to be a second-liner at worst. I know there are 31 other teams, but Veilleux has Carolina Hurricanes written all over him.
#31 - Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie Otters (OHL)
Scout Rank: 22nd | Model Rank: 53rd
Spence is described by scouts as having speed, size, and strength. He's a hardworking forward who doesn't have the largest toolkit in terms of his skill, which shows up in how my model projects him. He's seen as a guy who can play in your bottom six and be trusted not to make any costly mistakes.
As a late 2006 birthday, you could have expected more production from Spence. He didn't improve that much over last season, which isn't a great sign. If you're drafting Spence, you're hoping for a reliable bottom-six winger if he makes the NHL.
#32 - Cole McKinney, C, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 36th | Model Rank: 30th
McKinney is a reliable center who also put up solid production this year. He's a good skater and also has a good shot, which allows him to be a dangerous transition threat. McKinney is also strong defensively and overall is a guy that teams would love to have in their lineup.
He took a positive step in production this season, exactly what was expected. His projection hasn't changed much since last season, where he projects as a possible middle-six guy. I'd expect him to be one of the last players selected on Day 1 or one of the first on Day 2.
#33 - L.J. Mooney, RW, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 66th | Model Rank: 19th
Size will be talked about with Mooney, but he has the skill to make it work in the NHL. He's smart and was used at center at times this year with the program. He'll be playing at Minnesota next season, where hopefully he'll continue to show that his size won't be a problem at the next level. Whoever selects him on Day 2 will be taking a gamble, but it has the potential to work out very well.
#34 - Cullen Potter, LW, Arizona State University (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 23rd | Model Rank: 61st
Potter is described as one of the best skaters in this entire class. He uses his speed to create and generate a bunch of chances for both him and his teammates. His production wasn't the most impressive for the NCAA, and because of it, his odds saw a dip after this year.
#35 - Filip Ekberg, LW, Ottawa 67's (OHL)
Scout Rank: 62nd | Model Rank: 21st
Ekberg didn't do anything special for most of the season until the U18s. He scored 18 points, including 10 goals in seven games, and was one of the best players there. That small tournament gave his NHLe a healthy boost and showed scouts what he can become using his hands and offensive instincts.
#36 - Mateo Nobert, C, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 92nd | Model Rank: 17th
Nobert is very smart, both offensively and defensively, allowing him to play a strong two-way game. He produced very well this year alongside Justin Carbonneau. There are concerns about his slight frame, but that's nothing a little time in the weight room can't fix. He has the brain to play in the NHL, the body will come soon.
#37 - Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Scout Rank: 47th | Model Rank: 27th
One of Kevan's best qualities is his skating, and he knows how to use it pretty much everywhere on the ice. His skill is also seen as above average. The only thing he needs to piece together is his decision-making, which has put some scouts off. He'll be at Arizona State next year where we'll see if he improves it at the next level.
#38 - Logan Hensler, RD, University of Wisconsin (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 20th | Model Rank: 82nd
Hensler is seen as a first-round talent by pretty much every scout that I've seen. He's a strong skater with good puck skills. Production-wise, his 12 points in 32 NCAA games weren't all that impressive considering his age. He's on the older side of this class, so I would have expected more. He'll be selected on Day 1 where the team that takes him will be hoping to see his offense improve next year.
#39 - Adam Benák, C, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
Scout Rank: 57th | Model Rank: 25th
Whatever effects Benák's size may have on how he plays are unnoticeable because of his elite skating and smarts. They make scouts think that he'll be able to make it in the NHL as an undersized guy. Like other small forwards, whoever selects him will be taking a chance on a frame that historically has not been trusted but could have a massive payoff. I'd expect Benák to be a 3rd/4th-round pick.
#40 - Alex Huang, RD, Chicoutimi Saguenéens (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 73rd | Model Rank: 23rd
Huang is one of the youngest players in this class, but he had no problem producing points in the QMJHL this season. He has a good two-way game and is also solid on the power play. He recently committed to Harvard, where I'm looking forward to seeing how he develops further. Some scouts have him ranked as a 2nd while others don't even have him ranked. I'm very curious to see where he actually gets selected.
#41 - Ethan Wyttenbach, F, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL)
Scout Rank: 194th | Model Rank: 20th
Wyttenbach is only ranked by one scouting outlet of the fifteen used for the scout ranks here, which is surprising considering how well he projects in the model. He seems to be a player with good tools and a high compete level. The red flags for Wyttenbach include some bad decision-making and an inability to play with contact. We'll see if his production translates to the next level or even if he gets drafted.
#42 - Conrad Fondrk, C, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 59th | Model Rank: 29th
Fondrk dealt with injury this year and still is out, which might scare some teams off. For those that aren't, he's a highly skilled forward who some would say was the NTDP's best player at times. His NHLe this year is the same as it was last year, which generally isn't a great sign, so his odds were cut in half this season.
#43 - Nathan Behm, W, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Scout Rank: 46th | Model Rank: 39th
Behm is a player with decent skill and work ethic, which are good traits if you're trying to project someone as an NHL player. Scouts aren't sure he has the top-six upside, but as a bottom-six guy, he seems to be a possibility. My model also likes him to become a middle/bottom-six player, so that projection seems about right.
#44 - Travis Hayes, RW, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)
Scout Rank: 149th | Model Rank: 24th
While at first glance, Hayes' 51 points in 65 OHL games may seem low for someone my model has ranked in the 1st round, it's important to consider his age. If he were born two weeks later, Hayes would have been eligible for the 2026 Draft and not this year's. My model is confident in him having great development, especially considering how he's developed over the past two seasons.
#45 - Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgårdens IF J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 53rd | Model Rank: 38th
For a young player, Stockselius's junior production was very impressive. He skates well and has good skills. He also showed that he can adapt to wherever he's playing in the different roles he was cast in this year. He'll be a solid pick on Day 2 for whoever selects him.
#46 - Blake Fiddler, RD, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Scout Rank: 25th | Model Rank: 100th
Fiddler is seen as a 1st round talent by most scouts and, if not, a very early Day 2 guy. My model just doesn't agree. He's seen as a strong defensive player, which, yes, is important to being an NHL player, but if you can't score at the low levels, then you're going to be an offensive black hole in the NHL. We'll see if he develops more of an offensive game, but as of now, the model says to draft someone else.
#47 - Ivan Ryabkin, C, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Scout Rank: 38th | Model Rank: 56th
If you're reading this article, especially this late on, I'm going to assume you follow the 2025 Draft and have heard about Ryabkin's off-ice issues. Because of that, I'll leave that out here and talk about why my model isn't a fan either. His USHL production was good, but the model also looks at his production in Russia, which was pretty bad. He'll probably get drafted around this range, maybe even later. Either way, it'll be fascinating to watch Ryabkin's development over the next few years.
#48 - Lev Katzin, C, Guelph Storm (OHL)
Scout Rank: 93rd | Model Rank: 31st
Katzin started the season out in the USHL but switched over to the OHL and Guelph after 9 games. He ended up producing well on a weak OHL team and got scouts talking about him as a mid-round selection. Katzin is good around the net and has shown solid hands. He'll be playing at Penn State in the fall with guys like Luke Misa and fellow draft-eligible Jackson Smith, which will be fun to watch.
#49 - Poul Andersen, F, Sherwood Park Crusaders (BCHL)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 28th
Poul Andersen is the third and final member of the Sherwood Park line of himself, Dach, and Loranger, who all put up great numbers and evaluate well in the model. Since Andersen is the lowest producing of the three, he likely benefited a decent amount from playing with the other two guys. We'll find out just how much when he plays in the WHL next year and at the University of Maine after that or if he can be a solid contributor himself.
#50 - Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, RW, Luleå HF J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 31st | Model Rank: 78th
Ihs-Wozniak is the final guy in my top 50, while he's not the model's favorite, most scouts have him as a late 1st or early 2nd rounder. He's described as a guy with a powerful shot and a good ability to control the puck. He was inconsistent at times with his scoring which doesn't help how the model sees him and why he's not projected as high by it.
#51 - Charlie Trethewey, RD, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 56th | Model Rank: 43rd
#52 - Milton Gästrin, C/LW, MoDo Hockey J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 27th | Model Rank: 112th
#53 - Jack Nesbitt, C, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Scout Rank: 28th | Model Rank: 103rd
#54 - Arttu Välilä, LD, Lukko U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 36th
#55 - Louis-Alex Tremblay, RD, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 40th
#56 - Luka Radivojevic, RD, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Scout Rank: 83rd | Model Rank: 47th
#57 - Eric Nilson, C, Djurgårdens IF J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 34th | Model Rank: 139th
#58 - Anthony Cristoforo, RD, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Scout Rank: 161st | Model Rank: 46th
#59 - Luca Romano, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
Scout Rank: 54th | Model Rank: 69th
#60 - Shane Vansaghi, RW, Michigan State Univ. (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 33rd | Model Rank: 217th
#61 - Ethan Czata, C, Niagara IceDogs (OHL)
Scout Rank: 50th | Model Rank: 75th
#62 - Mason West, F, Edina High (USHS-MN)
Scout Rank: 44th | Model Rank: 88th
#63 - Mikkel Eriksen, C, Färjestad BK J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 106th | Model Rank: 50th
#64 - Max Westergård, W, Frölunda HC J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 81st | Model Rank: 55th
#65 - Henry Brzustewicz, RD, London Knights (OHL)
Scout Rank: 35th | Model Rank: 161st
#66 - Jonas Woo, RD, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 48th
#67 - Drew Schock, LD, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 96th | Model Rank: 54th
#68 - Richard Gallant, F, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 49th
#69 - Vaclav Nestrasil, RW, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Scout Rank: 38th | Model Rank: 132nd
#70 - Kristian Epperson, LW, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Scout Rank: 60th | Model Rank: 70th
#71 - Benjamin Rautiainen, F, Tappara (Liiga)
Scout Rank: 148th | Model Rank: 52nd
#72 - Mason Moe, F, Madison Capitols (USHL)
Scout Rank: 77th | Model Rank: 66th
#73 - Will Sharpe, LD, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)
Scout Rank: 109th | Model Rank: 59th
#74 - Bryce Pickford, RD, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Scout Rank: 90th | Model Rank: 63rd
#75 - Asher Barnett, LD, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 128th | Model Rank: 58th
#76 - Tanner Lam, RW, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
Scout Rank: 157th | Model Rank: 57th
#77 - William Horcoff, C, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 40th | Model Rank: 193rd
#78 - Kurban Limatov, LD, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)
Scout Rank: 42nd | Model Rank: 157th
#79 - Jordan Gavin, C/LW, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
Scout Rank: 152nd | Model Rank: 60th
#80 - Alexander Zharovsky, RW, Tolpar Ufa (MHL)
Scout Rank: 41st | Model Rank: 284th
#81 - Jesper Kotajärvi, LD, Tappara U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Scout Rank: 131st | Model Rank: 62nd
#82 - Carter Amico, RD, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 49th | Model Rank: 122nd
#83 - Francesco Dell'Elce, LD, Univ. of Massachusetts (NCAA)
Scout Rank: 120th | Model Rank: 65th
#84 - Eddie Genborg, LW, Linköping HC J20 (J20 Nationell)
Scout Rank: 43rd | Model Rank: 346th
#85 - Lasse Boelius, LD, Ässät U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Scout Rank: 71st | Model Rank: 83rd
#86 - Nathan Brisson, LW, Val-d'Or Foreurs (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 64th
#87 - Nathan Quinn, C, Québec Remparts (QMJHL)
Scout Rank: 119th | Model Rank: 68th
#88 - Haoxi Wang, LD, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Scout Rank: 45th | Model Rank: 247th
#89 - Jacob Kvasnicka, F, US Development Program (NTDP)
Scout Rank: 157th | Model Rank: 67th
#90 - Daniil Prokhorov, RW, MHK Dynamo St. Petersburg (MHL)
Scout Rank: 48th | Model Rank: 173rd
#91 - Owen Martin, F, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Scout Rank: 98th | Model Rank: 76th
#92 - Tommy Lafrenière, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Scout Rank: 121th | Model Rank: 71st
#93 - Topias Hynninen, C, Jukurit (Liiga)
Scout Rank: 99th | Model Rank: 79th
#94 - Matias Vanhanen, F, HIFK U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Scout Rank: 195th | Model Rank: 72nd
#95 - Jacob Rombach, LD, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
Scout Rank: 51st | Model Rank: 183rd
#96 - Blake Vanek, RW, Stillwater High (USHS-MN)
Scout Rank: Unranked | Model Rank: 73rd
#97 - Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Scout Rank: 52nd | Model Rank: 195th
#98 - Edison Engle, LD, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Scout Rank: 200th | Model Rank: 74th
#99 - Sam Laurila, LD, Fargo Force (USHL)
Scout Rank: 103rd | Model Rank: 84th
#100 - Gavin Cornforth, RW, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL)
Scout Rank: 116th | Model Rank: 81st