Monthly & Weekly Charts
This one of several possible counts for WTI Oil but the one I like most. I see two possible variations though for the ongoing Primary wave B and which it will be in the end pretty much depends on how the current geopolitical tension develops.
If we really get de-escalation here, whether a ceasefire in Gaza or not, but Iran taking a step back, then I think we more or less have finished a triangle here and will soon head down back to the $50 level.
If instead escalation takes center stage, then Oil will shoot higher but should still be considered to be in the same B-wave – as long as it doesn’t climb above $100 that is. Eventually, it will still have a meeting with the $50 level where it will seek support from the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the whole low to high move.
What will transpire on the other side of that play is hidden in the veal of future, but the count and structure do call for much higher prices to come. We should remember though that this may as well have to do with a lower value on the USD – we just don’t know yet what the future has in mind for us.
In addition, the fact that I have this wave from the low as a 5 waves impulse is simply because it’s supposed to be a C-wave based on the yet larger structure. It doesn’t mean it can’t stop with only 3 waves up. However, on display against a horizon further into the future it’s more probable that prices will move higher than the opposite – simply due to inflation.
To trade Oil and to find a trade setup we need to look at lower time frames but I don’t see any point in that right now, not until the circumstances that drives much of the Oil price becomes clearer. So let’s close the week to begin with and see if any signal will reveals itself.
Last minute addition: Currently there are intensive attempts to negotiate a de-escalation in Middle East and market seems to bead some hopefulness. I wouldn’t draw any conclusions though because we have been here before.