Main Elliott Wave count of NZD currency basket against 16 other currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD, CNH, DKK, MXN, NOK, PLN, SEK, SGD, ZAR, TRY).
Monthly Chart
The RBNZ rate decision meeting is in just a few hours, so it may change things or not as no change is expected. A hold will likely be seen as hawkish and bullish for a monthly chart that already looks eager to explode higher. If they were to cut though…
The truth is that while August candle looks strong so far, it has also already ruined the old count by dropping below the previous low marked as wave 2 and that is a warning sign. Now it has to prove itself by overtaking the last high and until that happens this chart is indeed bearish.
So forget what I said to begin with, even if that is “potentially” true. The Kiwi has tried repeatedly, backed by a hawkish Central Bank but the reality is that since the 2014 high, the curve is for lower highs and lower lows and until that changes….
I think that is all that needs to be said about the Kiwi right now. It will most certainly have its brilliant days going forward, but until it also has shown consistency, we cannot really trust it. Which is a pity because I really like the Kiwi as a currency.