Predicting divorce / relationship fail

Predicting divorce / relationship fail

Mar 26, 2023

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Why the above image? Is life post separation hell? Well, it is for some but, read on and find out.

Perhaps you're not sure if your current relationship will work out.

Perhaps, you're trying to work out why your last relationship failed.

Perhaps you need a steer before you make the same mistakes and rush into your next failed relationship?

Perhaps, you've found your way here and you're still to make that decision to someone special and you're not sure if, well, they ARE that someone especial.

Whatever your reason, here's a very good way to tell if they are the one. It's based on a very large empirical study which, suffice to say, is about as good as it's going to get today. One day we'll be smart enough to predict the future or understand how your DNA tells us what will work for you ahead of time. For now, know that these four factors are a very major component of what make it work, or not work.

If you're worried the accuracy of this 'empirical' understanding, let me put it another way that most will get. If you're at risk of catching a cold and/or flu, and ou wish to avoid that, we know that following four key rules is a large part of staying safe - manage these four factors and and you'll be ok 95%+ of the time:

1) Eat well and take vitamin and mineral supplements.

2) Get outside, catch a little sun and exercise.

3) Wash your hands and be aware of surfaces you touch that might be contaminated.

4) Be cautious how you interact with people are are unwell.

That last one may be as true of the 'cold/flu' analogy as it is of the relationship safety factors but I digress.

If you understand the four factors above, and realise that it hugely reduces your risks but does not 100% guarantee safety, then you understand the magnitude of import that the following four relationship factors have.

The Four Horseman of the Relationship Apocalypse

1) Criticism - personal criticism vs critique or complaint. Key difference here is the ad hominem (personal) nature of the 'critique'.

2) Contempt - This is about communicating in a way that is mean vs respectful. Think sarcasm, mocking, mimic, eye-rolling etc. The target is made to feel worthless. Despite being the 2nd factor, this above the others is a near guarantee for future relationship fail. If this happens to you, or about you to others (worst of all, in front of you), that relationship is a dead duck whetehr you ant to admit it or not. Once you know, walk away. It cannot work. You'l suffer less in the long run out of it than persisting with it.

3) Defensiveness - Ironically, typically a response to criticism. We all do this sometimes but if it's your partners go to, this is a good prediction that this relationship will fail. Never accepting blame, not acknowledging fault, shifting the blame leads to phenomena such as gaslighting and means they don't care how the issue in questions makes you feel. Its more about them not being at fault than it is about them helping you feel relieved that its being dealt with.

4) Stonewalling - When your partner withdraws and refuses to communicate or acknowledge your concerns / complaints. Typically they will turn away, tune out, act busy or like what you're saying doesn't matter. They may shift the conversation or attempt to distract you with something else. At its extreme, it may even be a form of intentional punishment where your partner won't speak to you for hours - days.

The 80/20 rule for the four horseman.

All of these four behaviours can be normal when we're emotional, not coping, confronting with overwhelm. However, it's the extent to which these are the norms vs the exception. Think 80/20 rule here. If these four behaviours are present (vs the opposite) for more than 20% of the time, its too common for the relationship to succeed in the long run. i.e. You want these negative traits to be a feature of your partners behaviours for less than 20% of their interactions for the relationship to be viable. More than 20%, and no hope of changing that through discussion, awareness or therapy and, its just a question how long before it fails and not if it will fail.

Also, its not just about your partner!

be honest. Do you do these things a lot; more than 20% of your interaction is the negative side of this equation? You are as likely to destroy the relationship as your partner so be honest, be self aware, improve yourself and work on being the right couple. If the other side of this equation, your partner, has the issue and won't or can't change, its time to walk away.

Lastly, its about your relationship with the state / system

Yes, you heard me right. Your parenting relationship might be over but hows your relationship with the state, the system, your ex, the agencies you have to work with to get where you need to get? They are all human or staffed by humans and they too are influenced by the nature of your relationship with them. Criticise them, treat them with contempt, act defemcively and never aloow them to see you can be 'good' and stonewall them on things they need you to do and, be surprised by the outcome. i.e. them not wanting to help you, fix your issues etc... I'm not blaming you nor am I saying 'they' don't deserve what you're dishing out but there's an old saying in sales. Win an argument but lose the customer. Think about that.

This video by the Gottman Institute that develop this four factor model helps.

Now you know who the four horsemen are but, whats the antidote. Take it straight from the Gottman Institute.

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