North Carolina's open Senate seat is being contested over two sets of numbers. Each campaign would prefer voters read only one of them.
Roy Cooper, the Democrat and former two-term governor, keeps household costs in view. His campaign is built around a "Make Stuff Cost Less" tour that highlights food, health care, utilities, housing and child care.
Michael Whatley, the Republican and former Republican National Committee chairman, keeps the prison gate in view. His argument centers on crime and on a February 2021 court settlement that required the early release of at least 3,500 people from state prisons.
They are competing for the seat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is leaving. Also associated with the race in Federal Election Commission and contemporaneous coverage are Green Party candidate Michael Dublin and Libertarian Shannon Bray. Election Day is November 3.
What follows is what each side says, what each has proposed, and what the public record shows.
Cooper's Ledger: Costs and the War
Cooper's campaign site frames the race around affordability. On roycooper.com the campaign lists plans aimed at food and groceries, health care, utilities, housing and child care under the "Make Stuff Cost Less" banner.
He has linked rising prices to the conflict involving Iran. At a mid-September event, Cooper said the price of most everything was going up because of the war, as reported by WRAL.
A Cooper television ad uses clips of Whatley saying grocery, gasoline and housing prices, and inflation, were down. FactCheck.org confirmed the clips are authentic and also found they are dated; it reported no interview after January in which Whatley repeated those claims.
On fundraising, Federal Election Commission data through June 30, 2026 show Cooper with $34,975,789 raised and $20,717,567 cash on hand. Whatley reported $11,272,504 raised and $3,461,698 cash on hand for the same coverage period.
Whatley's Ledger: Crime, Detainers, and Taxes
Whatley's public case has emphasized safer communities, secure borders, jobs and lower costs.
On immigration enforcement, the record shows Cooper vetoed legislation requiring sheriffs to honor ICE detainers in 2019, 2022 and 2024. The 2024 measure (Section 9.1 of S.L. 2024-55 / H10) was vetoed on September 20, 2024 and overridden by the General Assembly on November 20, 2024. It requires judicial officials to hold certain prisoners subject to a detainer for up to 48 hours.
On costs, Whatley's campaign has pointed to the 2025 federal budget law, which Cooper opposed. A campaign spokesman has said the law cut taxes for working families and ended taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits.
What the Settlement Record Shows
The core of the crime argument runs through one document. On February 25, 2021, the parties in NC NAACP v. Cooper announced a settlement. Forward Justice and the ACLU of North Carolina stated that the agreement would result in the early release of at least 3,500 people in state custody within 180 days, among the largest such releases achieved through COVID-19 litigation.
The North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission's Correctional Program Evaluation report on offenders released in Fiscal Year 2021 (submitted April 15, 2024) examined outcomes for prisoners released under that settlement. The Commission reported that overall, 48 percent of settlement releases had a recidivist arrest during a two-year follow-up period. The report defines early reentry under the settlement and compares outcomes by offense class and by how many days early a person was released.
The settlement figure used by the plaintiffs' organizations and by the Commission is 3,500. Whatley has used a higher figure of 4,200 in at least one mid-August appearance; his own spokesman has also cited 3,500 in other settings.
State crime data for 2024 show declines. The North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation's 2024 Annual Summary put the statewide violent crime rate at 388.4 per 100,000 (down 4.3 percent from 2023) and the murder rate at 7.6 per 100,000 (down 9.2 percent).
Closing
The two ledgers describe different jobs. The 2021 settlement was a decision made by a governor under court pressure during a pandemic. Tariffs, tax law, immigration-enforcement rules and war powers are decisions a senator votes on.
Both campaigns have put those subjects on the table and both have supplied their own numbers. The record above shows where each set holds and where it still needs the underlying document.
Voters decide the seat on November 3.
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