Climate summits have become a new protective weapon for authoritarian states. By hosting these mega-events, regimes that stifle press freedom, jail opponents, and threaten their neighbours can evade criticism.
Shortly after Ethiopia was awarded the climate summit COP32, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed spoke of a united Africa.
That his country beat out Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, was presented as proof that Africa trusted Ethiopia’s ability to host a global mega-event. Ethiopia would now be not only a continental leader, but an international force.
But behind the celebration lie other ambitions. Bringing up to 100,000 delegates to Addis Ababa is likely less about climate policy and more about geopolitics. Over the past decade, the country’s foreign-policy aspirations have expanded at breakneck speed. Every international forum has become a stage on which to showcase itself and claim space.
At the same time, the war rhetoric against Eritrea has intensified.
Graphics showing the Ethiopian flag and map. Generated by Open AI.
In October, Abiy Ahmed declared that Ethiopia would soon have 200 million inhabitants and that a neighbouring country of two million (Eritrea) should not stand in the way of Ethiopia’s vision. Those ambitions centre on the Eritrean port city of Assab.
To gain access to it, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate has opened the door to the use of force.
This is where COP32 fits in.
Even before the opening of COP30 in Brazil, now drawing to a close, Ethiopia had secured broad African support. Just days before COP30 began, Ethiopia, coincidentally, sought international mediation to “resolve” the question of Assab. It may have been a way to appear cooperative ahead of the decisive vote on COP32.
This aligns with how previous climate summits have functioned: mega-events can serve diplomatic purposes far beyond their stated intent.
Azerbaijan did the same in 2024. Only months before it was awarded COP29 (in December 2023), the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh had been subject of a mass exodus, after an Azerbaijani final offensive. Despite continued war rhetoric, and despite the president calling neighbouring Armenia a “fascist state,” international criticism softened markedly.
The mega-event became a diplomatic shield.
But Azerbaijan directed its repression inward. One week before securing COP29, authorities arrested most of the editorial team of the independent outlet AbzasMedia. Over the following year, around 100 political prisoners were jailed, including peace activists and journalists.
The number of political prisoners in the country has doubled since 2023, reaching roughly 400. Most governments remained silent. Relations in the run-up to the climate summit outweighed criticism of an authoritarian state. This became especially clear when COP29 opened and President Ilham Aliyev delivered an opening speech accusing the West of hypocrisy.
They were not to come to oil-rich Azerbaijan and criticise a country whose economy was built on revenues from oil - “Gift from God,” as he called it. They were certainly not to arrive and complain about human rights either. They were now on his turf. All criticism of Azerbaijan’s warfare in Nagorno-Karabakh vanished. On the contrary, by hosting the summit, Azerbaijan gained legitimacy.
The situation in Ethiopia is not entirely different.
In April, police raided offices belonging to independent media outlets. Seven journalists were detained, according to CPJ. Some were later released, but the number of political prisoners remains high despite a 2023 amnesty. Meanwhile, fighting is escalating in the Oromo and Amhara regions - areas where humanitarian actors are barely allowed access, according to Human Rights Watch.
Despite this, Ethiopia managed to unite the African continent behind its bid. Nigeria argues this is because Ethiopia invested enormous resources in signalling that no other nation could compete. But it is also about Ethiopia’s long-term aspiration to move from regional power to global player.
At the climate summit in Baku, no Armenian delegation attended. A year later, however, an agreement has been reached that the long-standing Caucasian rivals should, in the future, make peace. This has opened the door to renewed exchanges. Taken together, COP29 certainly contributed to increased repression in Azerbaijan, but regional stability, on the expense of the refugees of Nagorno-Karabakh, has also taken steps forward.
The remaining question is whether COP32 will act as a brake on a potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea - or merely postpone war. What is certain is that Ethiopia will be able to use the climate summit as a tool to mute international criticism.
The original article was published with CC Commons in Blankspot in Swedish.