Right, so Donald Trump has won his war with Iran. According to Donald Trump that is. The fighting stopped months ago, everybody can relax, and if Americans could remember to thank him at the ballot box today, that would be just lovely.
Then came reports of American strikes on Qeshm Island. Followed by American officials explaining military operations that had been kept quiet and that have actually been going on for months.
Oh, Donald. You were supposed to get through the election before the wheels fell off!
There he was at the Lincoln Memorial, telling voters about months without fighting, collecting the political rewards of a peace he apparently considered delivered. No need to hang about waiting for an agreement. That’s admin, that’s paperwork and unless it’s arts and crafts, it isn’t for Little Donnie to be troubled with. The orange one had a speech to give after all as well.
But now imagine trying to sell that performance while your own administration is explaining the continuing bombing. Every explanation creates another stubborn question that won’t leave him alone no matter how many female journalists he slags off over it. How long has this been going on? What exactly did the president mean by no fighting, when evidently there was fighting? And what are Americans being asked to reward him for if the confrontation he claims to have finished has still been going on for all of this time?
There’s only so much you can conceal behind a ball-ticking red tie and a vigorous rendition of YMCA.
So this is where the story starts getting away from him, because once officials begin talking about attacks the public wasn’t told about, Trump’s triumphant election pitch comes with an account of what was happening behind it.
Including a reason for keeping those operations quiet. A reason that reveals just how carefully Washington wants to manage the appearance of a war its president says he’s already finished.
A war does not become peace because a mandarin tinged muppet of a President puts his phone on silent and tells everyone to clap.
Officially, they do not want people to believe it is the beginning of a great campaign. It gives them the freedom to keep bombing without risking political investigation that way. It allows Washington to admit an isolated blow, but to say no more.
But Trump said there was no new large-scale offensive, but that the fighting had ceased for many months. His officials' explanation reveals the gap between the military policy he pursues and the one he is selling to the electorate therefore.
This is a neat arrangement for the government if they can get away with it, but a pain in the a*se if it all comes out as Americans go to the polls for the Midterms. To keep the planes in the air, keep the bombs handy, show the public a happy ending because the fireworks are only for guests, and retain all the advantages of a president of war with the election optics of a Nobel laureate. The bombs have probably been fitted with silencers for decorum's sake.
But Trump went far beyond saying that the operations had been scaled back. On Monday, at the Reflecting Pool of the Lincoln Memorial, he gave this explanation:
The result is that his staff must perform gymnastic acts of logic to explain the warlike operations that took place during the period the president just announced as peaceful. They will explain the length of a bombardment, the target, maybe even the weather, but none of this can cover the absolute whopper you just heard.
And Qeshm island and the activities overnight is the place that explains this discrepancy. Al Jazeera at first based its reports on local people's accounts of the incidents before it had an overview of the operations.
Washington alleges that it hit a threat to its air defences which, according to their declarations, was a consequence of an errant firing on an American aeroplane. This is their own reasoning, not a verdict, and it does not explain why the President is insisting out here that there was no fighting at all; he must think that by repeating it a thousand times, reality will also have that same report. There are no lists or registers of targets and casualties at time of writing.
But what is now painfully obvious is that Trump's administration is very much still involved in a war which had been declared finished. If the still-functioning Iran keeps on popping up in the excuses for more strikes, then perhaps the matter is not as ‘solved’ as Trump's social media accounts suggest. The continuing military action makes a mockery of his triumphal lap – a small one, around the Resolute Desk, before a nap and a Big Mac. But calling something necessary does not make it true, and a podium does not grant the air itself superiority, nor does yelling into a mic – however often he tries.
Qeshm is located off the south coast of Iran near Hormuz, where war might be a threat to the passage of oil and aircraft; the tankers must find the sea route in safety, and if they find that danger threatens, or if the uncertainty of supply increases, the price of oil increases in advance, long before the shipment has been lost. Lo and behold, prices are going up again.
Washington is putting military pressure all over again, on Iran and Iran demonstrate once more, that such actions render it capable of triggering a price shock at the same time Trump wants people to believe he has control. But the alleged hit on a given target doesn't let the shipowner know if his next tanker will pass safely, or the buyer know that a sale will continue. Trump can scream victory from the pulpit all he likes, but he can't fill the tanker with presidential self-congratulation. Perhaps Putin will sell him some more oil though eh? The Russian economy will love it.
But here is the problem: beyond the last round of explosions, Trump can proclaim a glorious victory and, the next day, what will have happened? Will Iran sign? Will the mutiny disappear in a puff of MAGA-branded smoke? Do others also act as if the president’s speech calmed everything down, except for his nerves?
J. D. Vance gave a public account of the negotiations.
Kinetic options are only the military speak for the use of bombs. It all sounds so much more reassuring after a rebranding exercise though. And here I was thinking the US missile cupboard was getting a bit bare!
The threatening tone is at the core of all of this though: Vance is announcing Washington's readiness to strike again, though quite what with is anyone’s guess; while Trump is selling himself as a peacemaker who ended this war months ago. Trump is offering peace as his own policy, while his deputy keeps the option of new explosions in reserve and though it is not a high bar, I know which of the two I find the more believable. The people have a right to know what would actually end the circus, not just what makes the White House comfortable.
Then a reporter pressed Vance for the date and the conditions of the trip.
Washington has hung the threat of force over the head of Iran without saying when that threat will end. But what would finally complete the work? After declaring the program ended, the Administration is asking for verification that it has not been resumed.
Hence, the negotiated solution may be linked to the resumption of trade through the Straits of Hormuz, as well as the lifting of the blockade. But that will require a Washington willing to negotiate what it is willing to give up, and not treat everything as an obligation on the part of the Iranians.
If a comprehensive agreement remains impossible, a sequence of arrangements might alleviate the danger of the moment. Mutual steps on military activity and sea transport; a timetable for resolving the remaining differences. This would not resolve everything, but would offer sailors, merchants, and people of the region something more reassuring than Trump's deranged bleatings from his most recent rally.
Trump has declared the confrontation finished without settling how it actually ends. Iran wants the blockade addressed; Washington wants verifiable nuclear commitments. Getting an agreement means negotiating what each side will do, and in what order. Trump could negotiate a wider deal or agree smaller, reciprocal steps to reduce the danger while talks continue. Instead, keeping the military pressure on carries the risk of more fighting. And then what? Another victory speech, another round of strikes, another explanation for why the war he finished still needs bombing? At some point, The big orange idiot has to negotiate the actual ending he keeps crediting himself with, so many times now I’ve basically lost count.
Trump still praised the previous anti-nuclear strikes in his election speech, but his administration still needed commitments for what would follow. This operation did not eliminate the need to negotiate, and it also left behind decisions that a victory speech cannot solve for Iran.
Another deployment, another operation, another excuse why the last disaster means that we need to keep going. And if every little quarrel can be exploited to bring on more military might, then this “temporary” campaign is going to look more and more like the forever war it has already been called for quite some time.
Iran wants to deal with the blockade and the Strait of Hormuz first, while Washington wants the nuclear issue addressed from the start, non-issue as that is, it’s always been an excuse when Iran has never sought nuclear weapons. The blockades embody this unceasing pressure. If we want to talk about the talks in relation to this situation, we have to stop treating the blockade of the Strait as a side effect.
Trump demands changes in Tehran, but doesn’t want to lift the embargo that’s preventing progress. Washington wants concessions, while putting its foot on the table. He can either ease the pressure himself or leave it untouched and take the blame if the other party refuses.
Yesterday, Tehran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei gave his opinion.
Washington may have to decide something for itself here, which I’m sure will be very annoying for a President who considers diplomacy to be just one big game of Simon-Says, in which he barks the commands and everyone else claps when they should.
This is not a solution for the problems that follow. Calling a blockade a lever is simply a polite way of saying they are squeezing you until you give in. If Trump wants Tehran to writhe, he cannot simply ramp up the pressure – it doesn’t work – decades of Iran being sanctioned and still getting by has proven that. He can celebrate victory as often as he likes, but he must explain why his beautiful, big policy has not yet given him the promised deal.
This mornings headlines still felt like a long-distance relationship: excessive phone calls and frequent but unsuccessful dates. Just because people talk doesn’t mean that Tehran has agreed to Washington’s terms. And just because Qatar is playing matchmaker doesn’t mean the happy couple is walking down the aisle-or that The Donald is attending the wedding in his gold-plated tank.
Earlier today, the Iranian parliamentarian Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington that it was pushing too far.
Qalibaf is telling Washington to be careful: if things go boom, it is Trump’s hand on the detonator, not some mysterious villain in a mask and a cape. He is not allowed to crow about his own airstrikes, but he himself will be responsible for the consequences.
It is especially awkward in the case of Trump's way of exercising power: bombs are supposed to enable him to write everyone's dialogue. But the fact that the script is still full of blanks shows how much depends on other people refusing, delaying, or even just rolling their eyes.
In this context, China is a power that also takes an interest in the Gulf and the Middle East.
An empire need not run out of aeroplanes to understand that it cannot dictate to everyone; you can have every bit of fire-power in the world and yet find the other side stubbornly refusing to comply. The arms are still there; the automatic obedience was a little overrated. Washington is busy running the operation and chasing a goal it hasn’t achieved. Other governments have their own plans and will not be halted just because Trump wants to be hailed as a hero.
A second test of the President’s statement is in this. After hearing the conditions and the general analysis, hear the power he gives himself.
Trump says he controls Hormuz. So why does reopening it still depend on negotiations with Iran then? Having American forces nearby gives Washington the ability to threaten and attack. It doesn’t mean Trump can make everyone do as they’re told. He’s announced himself king of the waterway while still needing Tehran to agree to let the ships through.
If Trump controls Hormuz, he should be able to deliver the safe passage he keeps banging on about.
If the United States needs to exchange messages, if its proposals need constant tinkering, and if it needs to get everyone else involved, it is not a situation as Trump might like, in which he could announce what he wanted. Everyone else would thank him for the honour. So this is where the middlemen come in.
While back in the lands of cheeseburgers and MAGA caps, uncertainty is actually causing problems. This morning, the news of the strikes came out in the newspapers and the price of oil jumped back up again, not a complete reversal but a useful reminder that the markets still react to the sounds of the gunfire. Trump gave himself a standing ovation for the falling oil prices, as if that meant everybody was expecting peace and as they now go to the polls they’re reading about them going up again.
For the voters who are sweating bullets over bills - though don’t say that too loudly Pete Kegsbreath might get excited - a victory claim does not pay the gas bill, for those who sail on ships Trump's promises do not guarantee safe passage. The president asks for praise, while everyone else has to live in the real world.
In the same speech he gave on Monday, Trump linked his remarks on the situation in Iran with how Americans ought to cast their ballots. And he made his electoral call perhaps unfortunately explicit – for himself anyway.
The reports which have escaped his own administration show how incomplete the official statement is. He wants to be re-elected by the credit of the completed mission, while his administration reserves the right to go on fighting. On-going operations are not exactly a small detail when the man who asks for your vote has just told you there were none.
Trump has said he wants to be praised for his handling of the Iran affair; that's fine, but do judge his actual policy too, the continued operations, the rattling pressure, and the still-absent agreement. You can't just turn in the speech and hope no one reads the small print.
As for avoiding the newspapers, it also affects the public’s impression of the latest uprising. If the war is thought to be over, then each new blow can be considered an exception, and when there are so many of these exceptions you begin to wonder if the original account was ever true, and this question will come back to haunt the administration, no matter which of the two parties wins the next round of musical chairs in the House or the Senate. Though we’ve a pretty good idea of that right now don’t we? Washington can always pretend it has already won, but the next escalation must have some cause.
And while the cost of this unresolved mess goes far beyond Trump’s election campaign rallies, the toll is being paid by civilians in their work at sea, households are playing a game of Russian roulette with their next energy bill, and people in the region are living under the threat of another big bang over their heads to the point Iran has now issued advice to its citizens on what to do in the event of a nuclear attack. Trump chooses the policy and snatches the victory trophy, everyone else is left to clear up the mess.
Trump's own officials have let it slip that the military effort is still running, hasn’t stopped despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, while the unresolved negotiations show how little all this noise has actually achieved. He can order a strike at any moment, but he can't just summon the agreement that would have made the end-game a real end-goal. I fancy people are sick of this has he won yet or hasn’t he farce and shortly it’ll be a matter taken out of his hands. It’ll be a lovely birthday present for me today if Trump gets sunk as voters across the US finally get to say enough is enough.
For more US and Israeli messes in Iran, because we all know why Trump is doing all of this really don’t we? Do stick with the channel for more, take this fine example here for instance as your recommended next watch.
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