Ukraine - September 06, 2024

Ukraine - September 06, 2024

Sep 07, 2024

Azov has reported that their unit took part in breaking into Niu York, and they provided some details of the operation. They confirmed that Ukrainian troops were never fully kicked out of the city, and that a pocket had remained in an industrial area in the northern part of the city for some time, completely cut off. Furthermore, they confirmed that they linked up with the besieged group. They are playing up this operation as part of a larger offensive, but I just don't see something like that happening any time soon. The breaking of the siege alleviates a portion of the pressure on Toretsk, but the situation there is still challenging for Ukraine after they lost much of their oldest and best established defenses east of Niu York.

Western media reported that Iran went ahead and shipped short range ballistic missiles to Russia. Ukraine has been trying to encourage the west to loosen restrictions on Ukraine, and in recent days they cited the rumored planned and now executed transfers as further reasoning for Ukraine to be able to conduct long distance strikes against Russia. And yet, these restrictions remain in place by the west, though further sanctions are reportedly being discussed as a response. There is a potential wildcard being dragged into the mid?x as well; Israel. In 2022, Israel threatened to send their own missiles to Ukraine if Iran sent missiles to Russia. However, Israel's security situation has obviously changed dramatically from 2022 to now, so it's extremely possible that Israel will decline to transfer missiles to Ukraine. Relations between Ukraine and Israel are also a bit frosty at times, with the two griping about visa policies towards the other in recent months.

In addition to venting about restrictions on long range strikes against Russia, Zelenskyy also confirmed that the Kremlin itself is not able to be targeted. He stated that he regretted that Ukrainian troops couldn't hit the Kremlin, even though Ukriane previously piloted drones into the Kremlin. Ukraine has also since hit targets in and around Moscow, as well as beyond the city. Ukraine clearly has the capacity to strike the Kremlin again, but they pretty obviously have been commanded to not do so, almost certainly by the United States.

Support for Ukraine in terms of monetary value was notably lower this year (so far) at the Ramstein conference than in the past. Even so, multiple countries announced aid packages for Ukraine. Lithuania pledged some financing to help Ukraine afford more of their new drone/missile hybrid, while Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands pooled together resources to get Ukraine additional tanks. Germany by itself announced a package, focusing on air defense, while the Netherlands independently also announced a new aid package to help Ukraine's F-16s. The British also announced a package, one which in size almost rivals the one declared by the United States, which is valued at $250 million. This continues the trend of the United States drip feeding Ukraine packages between roughly $100 and $250 million roughly every two weeks. The United States also stated that there would be additional support for Ukraine during a United Nations General Assembly meeting, which just so happens to be in about two weeks. The United States is also working internally to ensure that billions of dollars earmarked for Ukraine won't expire this month. Last year, over a billion dollars in funding for Ukraine expired, and the same situation, but worse is at risk this time around. A simple solution of course would be to just announce aid in the amount of the expiring funds in one go, but the United States has proven to be extremely leery of large packages except for the billion dollar one immediately after the national security act was signed into law this spring.

A top Russian propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, effectively confirmed that Putin was not seriously endorsing Harris. He outright laughed at the notion of Americans accepting Putin's endorsement as being "real". Since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, Solovyov has established close ties to the Kremlin and almost exclusively parrots their perspective on things.

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