Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 16, 2023

Ukraine - May 16, 2023

May 17, 2023

PMC Wagner has made more sweeping gains through the "citadel" in western Bakhmut, capturing much of the northwestern portion.  This is a major blow to Ukraine's aspirations to continue holding onto a portion of the city.  It increasingly seems as if the battle for the city itself will be over imminently, at which point Russia will probably try to clear out the remaining suburbs, particularly Khromove.  If Ukraine's counteroffensive hasn't yet begun and Russia's troops aren't too exhausted, they will likely try to Chasiv Yar's outskirts at the canal.  This would mean capturing Bohdanivka and Ivanivkse, the latter of which Ukraine regained a large portion of territory nearby in recent days.

An anonymous United States official confirmed that Russia's massive strike on Kyiv yesterday did lightly damage the Patriot battery.  The United States said if necessary, that they would remove the battery from Ukraine for repair before returning it.  However, United States officials said that the battery had taken only minor damage and could be repaired within Ukraine.  For their part, Ukraine insists that it was undamaged, and boasts that they shot down all of the missiles lobbed at Kyiv, including between six and nine Kinzhals (different officials and members of the media have provided different numbers).

Russia hurled yet additional Kinzhals at Ukraine today, albeit far from Kyiv.  A Kinzhal struck a large ammunition depot located in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv oblast.  Ochakiv is an important hub for Ukraine's prior intermittent efforts to secure the Kinburn region, which is just a few miles away.  Located at the mouth of the Dnipro river, it's also an important site for Ukraine's security along the river.  Russian missiles also hit other targets in the area, such as the city of Mykolaiv itself.

Helping to compensate for the likely damage done to the Patriot battery, the first SAMP/T battery has arrived in Ukraine.  Jointly developed by France and Italy, the first was pledged back in February.  Its arrival will provide Ukraine with yet another layer of air defense, helping to reduce the strain on their other systems.  However, as with many of the air defense systems Ukraine currently has, the extremely limited number in their possession is an issue.

Joining the United Kingdom, France has pledged to deliver SCALP-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine, weapons which are virtually identical to the Storm Shadow missiles which the United Kingdom recently delivered, and have already seen much use.  For their part, the United Kingdom declared that they had warned Russia in advance that they would be supplying Ukraine with the missiles as a direct response to Russia's continued invasion.  Months after the warning and with Russia not halting their offensive operations, the missiles were delivered.  I assume that France took a similar position with their SCALP-EG missiles.  With two major countries now providing Ukraine with long range missiles far exceeding the range that Ukraine's HIMARS have, we will likely see additional countries deliver similar missiles to Ukraine in the coming months.  However, the United States is still signaling that they will not provide Ukraine with the much demanded ATACMS.

The United Kingdom and the Netherlands, who both previously expressed support for countries with F-16s donating them to Ukraine, have publicly declared that they will join forces.  The two countries are hoping to kickstart a coalition which will aim to procure F-16s to give to Ukraine and to pressure countries with F-16s to transfer them to Ukraine directly.  Both countries also reaffirmed that they believe that Ukraine's future is with NATO, and resolved to continue long lasting support for Ukraine. Much as with the ATACMS, the United States is still signaling that they are not currently willing to directly provide Ukraine with F-16s from their own stock.

Ukraine has officially joined NATO's Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE).  Overlap between NATO members and NATO's Centres of Excellence is high, though thanks to bureaucracy and outreach, some NATO members are not in some of these organizations, and some non NATO members are in some of them.  Ukraine had previously applied to join the CCDCOE in 2021, and was accepted as a "contributing participant" a month after Russia's full scale invasion.  They are now being upgraded to a full member, officially called a sponsoring nation.  Ukraine's full membership will help to train Ukrainian professionals to defend the country against cyber attacks, as well as enhance cooperation at the military level between most NATO members, a handful of non NATO members, and Ukraine in the cyber realm.  With the CCDCOE being an accredited institution devoted to training, workshopping, education, and cooperation, Ukraine's upgraded involvement will take some time to pay off.  It is however yet another step of further integration between Ukraine and NATO, although it is not one that directly assists Ukraine's aspirations to become a NATO member.  However, the further integrated that Ukraine is, the easier the membership process will be politically if and when the war with Russia is settled.

After Georgia's government has gone ahead and confirmed that direct flights between Georgia and Russia will resume, protests broke out.  They are so far much smaller than the last wave of massive demonstrations which at points seemed close to toppling the Georgian government, but it is something to keep an eye on.  As with the last round of protests, the EU and United States are not explicitly supporting the government.  Patience among both has worn thin with Georgia's government for appeasing Russia.  

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