Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 28, 2024

Ukraine - June 28, 2024

Jun 29, 2024

Ukraine is continuing their push east of the Zherebets river, taking additional territory. Ukraine has a long way to go before they reach any noteworthy features or settlements, but the rolling back of Russia's long standing salient in the region will help to alleviate pressure for a broad arc of the front, stretching all the way up to Kupyansk. Ukraine has slowly lost a sizable chunk of ground in this overall area, once being at the gates of the cities of Svatove and Kreminna to the east, but having since been slowly pushed back. If Ukraine can battle their way back to their old positions, lost months ago, they can flip the script and instead strain Russian defensive lines and logistics in the area. There are some signs that Ukraine is seeking to do this, with an accompanying push underway in the sprawling and contested Serebryanskyy forest, west of Kreminna. A key site for Ukraine to capture is the village of Dibrova, situated on the border of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. But Dibrova is still a ways off, from both directions which Ukraine is pushing in.

Another country has joined the communique from Switzerland, the Pacific island country of Micronesia. Micronesia is a sovereign country, but it has very close ties with the United States, which is responsible for the defense and security of Micronesia. Consequently, Micronesia signing on is less symbolic than most other countries doing so, but Micronesia does maintain a foreign policy independent of the United States.

Many key Ukrainian allies are going through turbulent times currently, ahead of the NATO summit next month. The United Kingdom is holding elections in a week which will almost certainly usher in a change of government; however, the ascendent Labour has already established close ties with Ukrainian officials. It is other countries such as France and the United States which are of a larger concern for Ukraine. French elections are also quite soon, and currently, the far-right are leading. They have expressed far less support for Ukraine than the current administration. And in the United States, Biden just had a poor debate performance which has been lampooned by the media, with some even calling for him to drop out of the race. Some European officials have expressed alarm at Biden's perceived weakness. And the other major candidate rather infamously previously attempted to extort Ukraine.

The NATO summit will be a key test of international resolve to continue backing Ukraine, even as many of Ukraine's allies undergo changes in administrations. Ukraine is not expected to receive much in the way of their application to NATO being advanced, as the war is still on, and it's pretty evident that Ukraine will not join the alliance until if and when the war is concluded and Russia and Ukraine mutually agree on a border. That said, NATO may try to make a show of support, which will likely be in the form of sizable military and humanitarian aid packages. On that note, Finland today announced a military aid package worth €159 million.

Notably, this comes as Finnish media reported a series of break-in attempts over the past few weeks at multiple water infrastructure sites throughout the country, with Russian saboteurs being a too suspect. The message here is that Finland won't be cowed into submission, and will punch back by way of Ukraine. Separately, the United States is rumored to be planning a military aid package for Ukraine worth approximately $150 million in the coming days, an amount which is smaller than the Finnish package.

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