Gabriel B
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Ukraine - July 11, 2024

Ukraine - July 11, 2024

Jul 12, 2024

Russian troops have seized a wide swathe of territory west of Ocheretyne, moving through a number of fields behind the Hamlet of Sokil. Russian troops are approaching Yevhenivka from the east and the south now. Capture of this village would provide Russia with a convenient halfway point to Ukraine's next natural line of defense. Russian troops are also slowly progressing through Krasnohorivka, with Ukrainians troops increasingly being squeezed out of the center. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing in the village of Hlyboke in Kharkiv oblast, but overall the Kharkiv front remains stalemated.

In a major embarrassment to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine seized a merchant vessel, one flying the flag of Caneroon. The captain of the Usko Mfu is from Azerbaijan, while the nationalities of the other crew have not been specified. The Usko Mfu is alleged to be a ship used by Russia to smuggle looted Ukrainian grain to be sold abroad, and has spent extensive time in the occupied Russian port city of Sevastopol. Ukraine long ago threatened to impose an embargo on Russian shipping in the Black Sea in retaliation for Russia's (struggling) embargo on Ukrainian shipping. It is possible that Ukraine may not carry out an operation like this again, depending on any international blowback that they may receive.

Today concluded the end of the NATO summit. It was not without significant headlines. NATO accused China of being increasingly involved with supplying Russia, for instance. But what is dominating the airwaves is Biden mistakenly referring to Zelenskyy as Putin. Zelenskyy was graceful and joked about the situation. The United States also announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. Included is a Patriot battery. This is likely part of the four batteries that NATO recently pledged to Ukraine. Also included were munitions for NASAMS air defenses, stinger missiles (also used for air defense purposes), artillery shells, smaller munitions, and other assorted equipment. In addition to the American announcement, Romania inked a deal with Ukraine, which includes the transfer of a Patriot battery; likely the second of the four.

Australia also announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, the largest one provided by Australia to date. The mechanism will be through NATO, despite the fact that Australia is not a member (nor can it be, due to the geographic restrictions of the NATO treaty). Australia will also be sending personnel to NATO's military command for Ukraine.

Outside of NATO but closely related, the United States and Germany announced that they had stopped a Russian assassination attempt of the head of Rheinmetall. The German manufacturing giant has been a key source of military hardware for Ukraine, and works jointly with Ukraine to produce equipment inside of Ukraine. The attempted assassination could possibly trigger NATO's Article 4, which requires all members to meet to discuss a security situation. Perhaps more likely, there may be comparable discussions but ones that are not formally Article 4 consultations in order to avoid perceived escalation. This is likely what happened in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Slovakian prime minister Fico, though Russia was not implicated in that event.

Ukraine won another minor diplomatic victory today, with the island nation of Mauritius signing on to the communique from the Switzerland conference. Ukraine has called for the second one to take place before November, explicitly tying it to the upcoming elections in the United States as there are concerns that former President Trump could return. Trump has pledged to resolve the war within a day, but his proposals closely match those of Russia's, which Ukraine has rejected.

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