There have been some extremely early reports that Russia has made the decision to pull out of Robotyne after their garrison became partially encircled, fighting off Ukrainian forces to the west, north, east, and southeast of the settlement. Ukraine has taken heavy losses with their recent push to capture the town, but it is necessary for Ukraine to capture it if they wish to advance deeper into Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukraine has also reportedly committed the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which was formed to be trained and equipped by NATO countries. It was believed by some as early as May of this year that they would take the point of Ukraine's main thrust. If they are indeed committed to the Robotyne area, we are likely entering the make or break phase of Ukraine's offensive. The recent footage of a Stryker, of which the 82nd has many, certainly suggests that they are now taking an active combat role. They are relatively inexperienced though many of its members come from other formations, but they do have some of the best equipment available to Ukraine currently.
Some Russian milbloggers have claimed that prior claims of the quashing of the Kozachi Laheri outpost were premature. There have been some more fires around the Chelburda area, which suggests combat, though this may simply be Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes. Ukraine is still keeping quiet about the situation, with their last statement implying that the operation was merely a raid. With that in mind, I think it's quite possible that various Russian milbloggers are inventing stories to score points against their rivals. It would not be the first time something like this has happened, though usually its stories about the failures or successes of units or officers, and not actual territorial control.
Ukraine has expanded their grip on the areas around Urozhaine, pushing east towards Kremenchuk. Taking the settlement would further isolate Novodonetske to the north, while also allowing Ukraine to assault Staromlynivka directly from the east. Frankly, I'm surprised that Russia still holds Novodonetske, but it does fit with their modus operandi of the summer of refusing to cede any territory unless if absolutely forced to. As a result, I still don't expect them to abandon Novodonetske even if Kremenchuk is captured. However, it will make their positions in Novodonetske far less tenable, meaning that Ukraine could likely capture Novodonetske with significantly less effort than if they attacked it head on cmas of now.
There is little to report on from the Bakhmut and Kupyansk fronts. Both sides are deadlocked and unable to make any advances against the other currently, but the intensity of the fighting along both fronts is quite high. Ukraine's decision to evacuate civilians from Kupyansk, even if premature, was wise. It greatly simplifies things for Ukraine's military, which won't need to worry about informants or civilian casualties.
Ukraine has seemingly, reluctantly acknowledged that the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine will be greatly delayed, as a top Ukrainian official stated that they won't receive them this autumn or winter. It seems that Ukraine's new optimistic timeline for receiving the planes is spring of next year. In the meantime, Ukraine's much smaller air force continues to struggle against the broadly slightly more advanced and much larger Russian air force.
Another dose of bad news for Ukraine was India torpedoing their attempt to attend the upcoming G20 summit. Unlike the G7, Russia has not been booted out from the G20. India is hosting the upcoming summit and has tried hard to carve a middle path between Ukraine and its allies with Russia, a long standing supporter of India. The Indian government cited the G20's purpose of promoting economic growth rather than conflict resolution as the reason for why Ukraine wasn't to receive an invite, and suggested that Ukraine try the United Nations Security Council instead. Of course, any efforts Ukraine might make at the UNSC would be in vain as Russia has veto power.
In a curious bit of diplomacy, the United States offered sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for ending drone shipments to Russia. Personally I think such an offer is both long overdue and too late. Russia has already established parallel factories within Russia; they have the knowledge and tools to mass produce Iranian model drones, and have already started to do so. Even so, it does not seem that Iran has been particularly receptive to this offer.
The first merchant vessel left Ukrainian waters since Russia terminated the Black Sea grain deal on July 16th. The cargo vessel Joseph Schulte had actually been stuck in Ukraine since the day before Russia's full scale invasion in 2022. The vessel successfully reached Turkish waters undisturbed, adhering to a route that Ukraine proposed to the International Maritime Organization as a route for trapped vessels to evacuate. It's far from clear if additional vessels will evacuate this way or if any will return, and it's also not clear if Russia will enforce its embargo on any future ships traveling along the route.
Russia managed to lose two generals today, though neither were active in Ukraine at the time. The first to pass away was Colonel General Gennady Zhidko. He once served as chief of staff of Russia's intervention in Syria, and later was in charge of Russia's war against Ukraine for part of 2022, and these are just some of his accomplishments. To say he was decorated and accomplished would be an understatement. He reportedly died in Russia of an unspecified lengthy illness. The second was Lieutenant General Gennady Lopyrev, who was accused of mass corruption. He was jailed in 2016 and has since been serving a prison sentence which was to last a decade. He reportedly also died due to poor long term health, which of course prison may have contributed to. I am dubious of the causes of death here, as it is quite a coincidence that two general both passed away on the same day from natural causes. The shared first name is just even more bizarre. In addition, a Russian milblogger today reported that General Surovikin is in fact under house arrest, has been ordered to say nothing, and is expected to continue to do so until he is "forgotten".