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SwingForecast_20241107: FOMC Throws Cold ...

SwingForecast_20241107: FOMC Throws Cold Water on Market Rally! Cliffhanging Rally

Nov 08, 2024

The markets are still generally strong this week, but investors who have made significant gains over the past few days may want to reconsider their positions.

The daily market is still bullish, but we may be getting closer to a trend reversal.

Tomorrow's early trading is also expected to be volatile.

After the election, which ended in a surprise victory for Trump, the markets rallied sharply as the results were unexpectedly favorable for the markets.

However, with the FOMC failing to add to the momentum, there is a possibility of a sell-off.

Investors do not seem to want to take any risk with the big gains of the past few days and appear intent on taking profits.

Our sector outlook suggests that bonds might move higher on Friday.

The indicators we calculate are mixed, with post-election buying competing with post-FOMC selling.

Investors are showing some indecision, but we think we could see a slight pullback on Friday with the SPX moving between 5930 and 6000.

This could be followed by a few more days of market trouble.


Here are more helpful insights.
Currently, it remains difficult to challenge the upward market trend fueled by post-election optimism, favorable seasonal factors, and solid basic economic measures.

However, it's worth noting that the financial statistics now are significantly different compared to when Trump won his first term in 2016.

Stocks are more costly, yields are much higher, the corporate tax rate can't be reduced much further, and the nation's debt to GDP ratio is much higher.

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