We're excited to announce that we are starting to roll out our new feature - FMD Simulator ๐!
What is the FMD Simulator?
FMD Simulator is a web app whose purpose is to enable users to simulate the outcome of football leagues/competitions.
One of its main features is the possibility for users to input their own results of remaining fixtures and check how the probabilities change depending on it.
How does it work?
Say you're a fan of Aston Villa and you want to know what are Villa's chances of reaching Top 5 in EPL and qualifying for Champions League, depending on following results in three of the four remaining fixtures:
win over Fulham in GW35
win over Bournemouth in GW36
win over Tottenham in GW37
no result selected for the match v Man Utd in GW38
First you will select the Premier League on the drop down list of leagues:
You will select to predict the fixtures by Club, and then select Aston Villa from the drop-down list of clubs. If you want to enter results of more teams, you can add those teams by selecting them from the drop-down list.
Then you will enter the desired result for each game that you want to input. It's not necessary to input results for all games. You can input one result, or all results, that is completely up to you. If you leave the cells empty, the Simulator will simulate the results of those matches based on the relative strength of teams (in our example, that is the case with the match Man Utd - Aston Villa in GW38).
When you click Simulate, the simulator will start.
It will provide the probability heatmap based on the results that you inputted and based on simulated matches for which the results were left blank:
The Simulator also provides the histogram of the probability distribution of possible final positions and possible final points for each selected team.
We're working to add more features to this, like the probability for each position given the final points won.
Speed of the simulation
You can choose the number of simulations the Simulator will run. There is a trade-off between the speed of the simulations and their precision. Simulation with 1,000 iterations will run faster than the one with 10,000 iterations, but it will be less precise (stable) as it will showcase bigger variance in results each time you run it.
The app shows the estimated runtime based on the number of simulations you selected. We're constantly working on optimizing the code to make it faster and more efficient.
Which leagues are covered?
Currently the Simulator includes 21 leagues:
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier League
๐ช๐ธ La Liga
๐ฎ๐น Serie A
๐ฉ๐ช Bundesliga
๐ฉ๐ช 2. Bundesliga
๐ซ๐ท Ligue 1
๐ณ๐ฑ Eredivisie
๐ต๐น Primeira Liga
๐น๐ท Sรผper Lig
๐ต๐ฑ Ekstraklasa
๐ณ๐ด Eliteserien
๐ธ๐ช Allsvenskan
๐ญ๐ท HNL
๐ญ๐บ NB I
๐ฆ๐น Bundesliga
๐ท๐ด Liga I
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Premiership
๐ฉ๐ฐ Superliga
๐ฌ๐ท Super League
๐จ๐ญ Super League
๐จ๐ฟ First League
The plan for next season is to cover all European leagues!
How often do the results refresh?
The app draws the results from an external source. As soon as the results are included there, the app will include them in our database.
In case you want to run the simulation before the newest results are included in the database, you can add the results of the latest round by hand in the Simulator, as explained above.
What else is there?
The app also includes the page ๐ย Probability Changes. This page displays the latest changes in probabilities compared to the previous round, along with the evolution of title probabilities by round (soon to be added).
This is similar to what we've been posting week-by-week on our Buy Me a Coffee page.
For leagues that are included in the Simulator, we will not publish separate posts with these graphs on Buy Me a Coffee platform. All of them will be available on the web app.
Who can access the FMD Simulator?
Access to FMD Simulator ๐ is available to our paid members with active membership on Buy Me a Coffee platform.
To become our member click here.
How can I access the FMD Simulator?
The simulator is available here.
You will need to login with your email address that you used when you registered as our member on Buy Me a Coffee platform.
The app works both on desktop computers and phones.
What's next?
For next season, the plan is to include all European leagues in the Simulator, and perhaps go beyond that.
For the June international window we plan on rolling out the simulator for the World Cup qualifiers!
For the fall, the Simulator will be ready for the league stages of Champions League, Europa League, Conference League.
Disclaimer
This is anย alphaย version of our application, built to personalize predictions and simulations. As itโs still in the early stages of development, you may encounter some bugs and problems so if you notice them or have any suggestions please send them to us.
We hope you'll like what we have prepared.
Thanks for supporting us so far and we hope you'll continue to do so in the future!
Your FMD team