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With Red Bull Racing finally deciding on the best course of action on what to do with Sergio Perez, the final pieces of the puzzle fell into place, and we now have a full grid for 2025.
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It was a move that many have been predicting for not only weeks but months after a massively underwhelming season that cost the Milton Keynes team any hopes of retaining the Constructors’ Championship, which for now will be returning to McLaren for the first time since 1998.
Following on from that announcement came the news that Liam Lawson had been chosen to replace Sergio Perez and take on what some, including Christian Horner, have described as the toughest seat in F1 next to the newly crowned Four-Time World Champion Max Verstappen.
There is some confusion over the nature of Checo's departure; the team is using the language “ stepped away,” giving a narrative that this is Sergio's choice to do so. There is talk of a role within the team commercially, not a surprise when you look at the sponsors and markets Sergio is popular in; however, reports starting to come out of Mexico seem to be at odds with this narrative that he simply walked away. Then there is the money side: a deal that needed to be signed off by the Red Bull Shareholders, signifying not only a change to the way Red Bull Racing is now run but also due to the significant impact this will have financially on the team, either through sponsors, contract pay-off, merch sales, and even markets where Checo performs well for the team. Either way, whatever the cost is to Red Bull, the call has been made and communicated.
Why Liam?
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The biggest question currently dominating the rounds on social media is why Liam Lawson and not Yuki Tsunoda for that second seat. Liam will be the least experienced Red Bull Junior to be promoted to that seat, with even Seb Vettel and Max Verstappen enjoying more time than the young New Zealand racer has had before being thrust into the limelight. He didn’t really set the world alight after replacing Daniel Ricciardo following the conclusion of the Singapore GP, and the driver change the now-named Visa Cashapp Racing Bulls decided was needed. Yuki had a strong case for the drive, a steady improvement as well as a more mature driving style than when he first burst onto the track, scoring the majority of the points that VCARB collected and doing everything that was asked of him. However, the biggest thing going against Yuki is the diminishing influence of Honda.
You see, Yuki is a Honda-backed driver who is a part of the Red Bull Family due to that engine contract that the two teams have enjoyed for a number of years now. That contract meant that Honda enjoyed being able to pick one of the four seats, a contract clause that Honda seems to have enjoyed in F1 over the years. Now, this may be a written one or more of an unwritten clause; it’s hard to tell, but one thing is for sure: there is no doubt the driver moves have been discussed and influenced by them over the years.
It was at the height of that epic title fight between Red Bull and Mercedes that we officially got the news that had been talked about for over a year and that Honda had pulled the plug on their F1 engine supply. Faced with the prospect of no engine and not finding much sympathy amongst the current engine suppliers in the paddock, Christian decided the best thing to secure the future of the team was the creation of Red Bull Powertrains. This would mean that for the first time ever, the Milton Keynes team were not at the mercy of engine suppliers and could control their own design and destiny by becoming a works team. They got Ford on board in 2023, who agreed to become a partner and return to F1, and since then there has been a huge shift for the team.
It was at that 2023 car launch we got a glimpse into this change in dynamics, held in New York under the watchful eye of Ford. We got the news that the car manufacturer was onboard and RBPT had a new partner, a launch that didn’t have hardly any mention of Honda. The signs went up rapidly at Milton Keynes: around the factory, the Ford logo was proudly displayed; the cars the team drove off track quickly switched to Ford from Honda; and even the F1 Academy proudly showed this new partnership by dedicating one of the liveries to Ford and showing their backing with releases such as the Chloe Chambers one for 2025.
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Now the Honda name is back on the cars after a deal was struck once they had announced a return to F1 with a power supply to Aston Martin from 2026 to bring back the branding after it had been greatly diminished after the split was announced. All parties are talking about the conclusion of a successful partnership at the end of next season, but for Yuki, the damage was done. Offered a one-year deal that sees him through to the conclusion of this partnership, a quick look through the Red Bull & Ford content over the last few years will show it's heavily featured on Max, Daniel Ricciardo, Checo, and even Liam, all doing things with the Ford Performance branding in the Ford Cars, but rarely will you see Yuki in these for a good reason because Honda does not want it.
The idea of Yuki having a swansong alongside Max will have been one that Honda have no doubt been trying to influence, as shown with the post-season RB20 test, which placed Yuki in the Red Bull. Some talked about it being a test, whilst the reality is it was a marketing exercise for Honda to get those pictures. The comments since, with Christian now talking that Yuki may have to look outside the Red Bull Family, also back this up: that no matter how he performed the politics of F1, that Yuki has enjoyed getting to F1 are now the very thing stopping him from that step up to the main team.
This isn’t taking anything away from the drivers and their ability; this is just the need to understand that driver performance historically is only one of the factors that go into making a driver change. As for Liam, the comments are unjust towards him on social media. Ultimately, he’s a winner at junior level. He’s done everything his employers have asked of him and been rewarded for that patience and loyalty with a seat at the top Red Bull team. An opportunity to make a name where there is speculation about how long Max will stay in the sport. Why wouldn’t he take it? Why wouldn’t he be happy about it? There are many drivers who, despite the challenge of going up against Max would jump at the chance to be in that RB21 next year.
It remains to be seen if Yuki will move with Honda to Aston Martin with a driver lineup that is currently occupied, of course, by Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll under the new regulations. My bet? Be it in a reserve role or even at the expense of Lance, I fully expect that Honda will have a driver in that famous green in some capacity when the covers come off that new Honda Aston Martin in 2026.
As for Liam? He’s got the opportunity of a lifetime, but he needs to keep a look over his shoulder because all eyes are looking towards the junior programme and Avid Lindblad, who we may well see entering that junior Visa Cashapp Racing Bull team, especially if he has a good F2 season and impresses with some planned RB19 runs for the team as part of his development.
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