Updates will be included for the last events of the season, where DL Finals qualification hangs in the balance - full article is below.
[UPDATED: 20-AUG]
Men's Pole Vault: Lausanne
Last DL Pole Vault for the men where it initially looked the top 13 in the World would compete, but Menno Vloon NED and Thibaut Collet FRA no longer listed which changes the qualification permutations.
Given the field, the top 5 are now safe for the final (Marschall, Duplantis, Kendricks, Karalis & Guttormsen). Lavillenie, Lightfoot and Obiena while competing won't make up enough points to make the final
Which leaves Baptiste Thiery FRA, Zachery Bradford USA and Christopher Nilsen USA battling it out for that final 6th spot.
Thiery is in the box seat - just needing to finish 5th or better to cement a final spot. Bradford must beat Thiery by 5 spots, and be ahead of Nilsen, while Nilsen must beat Thiery by 6 spots, and be 2 ahead of Bradford. In sum Thiery would need to have a very bad comp, and either Bradford or Nilsen a very good one.
World Ultimate rankings can also be affected, particularly with Collet not competing (currently in qualification in 8th). Bradford has a mathematical chance of overhauling his points, but must jump close to his 5.95m SB, and place 5th or better.
A table summarising the numbers can be found on the athsSTATS insta or X accounts.
Analysis of the five other last-of-the-season events on the main program up tomorrow.
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FULL ARTICLE
The introduction of the World Ultimate Championships onto the track & field calendar brings a new level of excitement for the athletes, not least because of the prizemoney on offer.
For those of us who follow the numbers, it also brings a new level of permutations and combinations, which takes the normal “Road to …” calculations to a whole different level.
Why is that? Isn’t there a “Road to …” for World Ultimate (WU) that shows who’s qualified?
Yes, but…
1. World Athletics can invite non-qualified “exceptional” athletes to WU, up to one per event.
2. The Diamond League (DL) Association Board can appoint up to four Global wild cards into DL Final events.
3. The Global wild cards will be eligible, along with other DL finalists, to gain wild card entries into the WU (one per event)
4. Lists of the DL Finalists are far from settled: three more DL meets, lists still include athletes that are injured or ended their season, and even if invited, some athletes will forgo the DL Final to focus on WU which is only one week after.
How to make sense of these four points?
(1) The deadline for these athletes to be determined is 17th August, so they’ll appear on the 20-Aug “Road to…”. This will also include changes due the European Championships, so before the Lausanne DL starts, things will be a bit clearer.
(2) Not sure when these are announced but presuming soon so they are part of promotions for the Final
(3) Originally the DL Final wild card was for the winner, but then they realised it is likely all the winners would already have qualified for WU. So now the wild card goes to the highest placed athlete in the final who is not qualified for WU. These athletes take the last place in the WU rankings.
(4) Won’t be clear until we see the DL Final start lists.
Given all that, good to work through some events to see how this could play out. Initially I thought this would be simple, given athletes vying for the DL Final have competed in a number of DL meets, acquired good ranking points and therefore I assumed would be qualified for WU. However, this is not the case.
Men’s 200m (coming up at Lausanne, Zurich)
With two more races, the ranking list will clearly change, but as it stands the first three are ranked for WU, Tebogo as the current Olympic Champion.
Then you get to Mena CUB at 4th, who is not in a qualifying spot for WU (ranked 24th, 16 to qualify). While he has run three DL races, two of those were 4th placed 20.53 efforts which don’t score that well, despite the place points. So a strong chance to compete in the DL final, and if he is then the top non-WU qualified finisher, gets the wildcard.
As things stand Mena has competition in the final from Traore CIV who is 8th ranked in DL, but 21st for WU, so he’ll be vying for that wild card too.
This adds a whole new dimension to these finals – albeit a hard one to get your head around at first. If the 200m DL final were today, we’d have eight athletes going for the podium & prizemoney, but also a head-to-head between two athletes for a spot at WU.
The 200m has two more meets, so this is all theoretical now – what about an event which has just one more DL race before the finals.
Men’s 800m (Lausanne)
Only one more men’s 800m before the finals, so the DL rankings must be fairly settled?
Well, no. Lutkenhaus USA ranked at 4/8 clearly won’t be competing given he has finished for the year. Also Burgin GBR at 7/8 withdrew from the European Championships final – will he compete at DL Final or save himself for WU (ranked 4/16)? Will Wanyonyi KEN & Arup CAN choose to prioritise WU, with eyes on the US$150k 1st prize, and forgo the DL final a week before. This could impact who decides to compete at Lausanne.
Which is good news for Grønstad NOR. Currently ranked 10/8 for the DL final, his chances of running at Lausanne are improved, which would mean more DL points, plus withdrawals, makes him a good chance to run the DL final. At which he could potentially be the only one who has not qualified for WU (currently 22/16), so he gets the wild card.
5000m (Lausanne)
This event highlights another aspect.
Balew BRN & Almgren SWE are not listed on WU rankings. Initially I thought this was because they didn’t have enough events. For example, Nuguse, Kessler & Kerr are not listed in 1500m WU Rankings, because they need a minimum of three 1500m’s in their five events which score points. With the focus on the mile this year, this hasn’t happened although they only need one more 1500m, and there’s two more on the DL program (Silesia, Zurich).
However looking at Balew and Almgren, they have more than the minimum events required. Are they not listed because they have indicated they won’t compete at WU? World Road Running Championships are on the 19-20 September, so is this their focus? It would be good if World Athletics could still list ranked athletes but note they have ‘withdrawn’.
Will they run the DL Final instead? At which Abdilaahi GER (4/10) and Lobalu SUI (10/10) are set to join them, and both looking for that wildcard to WU given they are outside the WU ranks (17/12 & 20/12 respectively).
Summary Table for last events of the season at Lausanne DL
The Table below lists the events at Lausanne which are the final time these events will be on the calendar before the DL Final. This is therefore the last chance for athletes outside of WU qualification to position for DL Final qualification points, and have a chance at the wild card.
Athletes listed, if competing at Lausanne (start lists still to be published), could well be competing in Lausanne for that DL Final position, and those that are at risk of losing their WU ranking place, so equally will be keen to qualify for the Finals to improve their WU points/ranking. (Blue: outside qualifying, Green: inside qualifying, Orange: at risk)
Further updates to this article:
after start lists published
tables for other upcoming DL events
analysis of the revised “Road to…” when released
analysis of the DL meet results and consequences for qualifying
Links to ranking lists and documents:
World Athletics “Road to World Ultimate”