SUMMARY
It's been a busy few days as I've tried to add "Hospitalizations" and Serology to the giant spreadsheet.
The Republican Wave is now producing about 30-35,000 new cases a day, which is well above the previous Republican case count which had been in the range of 8-10,000. The exponential growth is very clear in the data. States are slowly being overwhelmed which is producing the illusion of minor improvements.
Week-ahead forecast is 295,988, 82.1 / MM +3.17 / MM / day. The standard deviation continues to increase, showing that this isn't a nationwide change in new cases.
OUTBREAKS AND RECOVERIES
Here's the list of states with more than 100 new cases per million.
Alabama
Arkansas
California
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Louisiana
Nevada
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Here's the list of states with more than 200 new cases per million.
Mississippi
South Carolina
Here's the list of states with more than 300 new cases per million.
Arizona
The national average is 747 confirmed and probable cases per 100,000 population. Nationwide the new case rate was 128.2 per million. On a state level, the average was 82.1 / MM with a standard deviation of 76.3. The new case rates are very badly skewed, in other words. Removing those states from the statistics yields an average of 42.2 / MM. In short, there are now two very different epidemics in this country.
Here's the list of states which were removed.
Maryland
ACTIVE CASES
There are 502,309 active cases.
This is the highest number of active cases since April 24th. There will be some resistance on the way to the peak active cases of 592,934 on April 17th, but there is no reason that won't be broken within the next two weeks.
BLUE / RED STATUS
The Blue / Red ratio is 61.4% to 38.6%. There are now 958,070 "Red State" cases. Republican states will break 1 million Monday, and 1.1 million later this week. There is a possibility they will break 1.2 million by Sunday.
The current streak of over 50% Red State cases began on June 5th. The current streak of over 60% began on June 12th, and the streak of over 70% began on June 26th.
SELECTED STATES
CALIFORNIA
California is experiencing moderately uncontrolled growth and the week ahead is 44,410 cases, 134.3 / MM +7.53 / MM / day.
Positivity -- 5.49% -- is low enough for testing to control the growth, but they do not appear to be using it effectively.
OREGON
Oregon appears to peaking near 45 / MM. Week ahead is 1,261 case, 45.7 / MM, -0.80 / MM / day.
TEXAS
Texas is now at 158.0 / MM +10.15 / MM / day. Week ahead is 42,848 new cases. Trailing 7 days was 32,066.
Texas is currently experiencing uncontrolled growth in cases and positivity -- 12.36% -- is insufficient for contact tracing. Major multi-city lockdowns are required, but very unlikely to be enacted. Continued rise in positivity indicates that testing is insufficient for anything more than confirming a diagnosis.
Prevalence is moderately low at 494.4 / 100K. Prevalence-limited growth will become apparent in counties with more than 1,750 cases per 100K.
Texas remains on a ballistic trajectory which will lead to 15-20,000 cases / day before entering the deceleration phase. Long-term forecast remains 450-500,000 total cases within the next 2-3 months.
Vulnerable family members should be evacuated while possible.
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin has resumed growing. I'm not sure what counties are involved this time. Week ahead is 3,146, 67.7 / MM + 2.81/ MM / day. Trailing 7 days was 2,360.
SEROLOGY
The states which report regular antibody tests have performed a total of 923,553 tests with 46,220 positive results. Remember that this reflects infections 3 weeks ago when the total number of cases was 1,881,226.
This also excludes New York, which has very high seropositivity.
BURNING OUT
The following states have over 1,000 / 100K:
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Illinois
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island
The following states have over 2,000 / 100K:
New York
The y-intercept for 0 new cases is still approximately 2,200 total cases / 100K.
This doesn't mean states over 2.2% won't have cases, but it does mean that with undetected transmission immunity is likely high enough to prevent a major outbreak.
DISCLAIMER
Obviously this is all just my opinions. If have have articles, please share them. I spend 2-3 hours a day looking for information, so the more information I don't have to search for the better.
TL;DR
Values are rapidly increasing, and will continue to do so for at least the next 3-4 weeks, depending on government intervention.
Unlike Democrat-led states, this is highly unlikely.
This is being driving by Republican states plus California, Nevada and Oregon.
Low prevalence is a risk factor for continued growth outside of the Northeast.
Total infections are in the range of 35-40 million.
The high growth rate will improve immunity by flu season.
Three states -- Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York -- likely have enough immunity for a safe flu season, in terms of dual outbreaks of COVID-45 and influenza.
Rhode Island and Washington, DC should reach that point before Fall.
The sharp rise in cases is making CFR-to-IFR projections hard.
Serology is lagging, so that doesn't help with current total infections.
BUYING COFFEE
It's very likely I will close this page if interest, measured by page views, doesn't improve. There are a number of people doing this and I don't seem to be gaining followers here.