Weekly Market Report 28.10.2023

Weekly Market Report 28.10.2023

Oct 28, 2023

If you haven't read last week's report, you can find it here: Weekly Market Report 21.10.2023 — Yavuz Akbay (buymeacoffee.com)

We did not have a very busy week on a macro basis this week. Only in the second half of the week various macroeconomic indicators were released, otherwise the first half of the week was very quiet.

First of all, US PPI and core PPI figures were released on Wednesday. These were two of the most important indicators affecting the market. The monthly PPI figures fell from 0.7% to 0.5%. Although this drop looked good, it did not meet the market's expectation of 0.3%. In addition, the monthly core PPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, let alone falling. This is really not good news for the markets.

In addition, the US CPI and core CPI figures were also released on Thursday. The monthly CPI fell from 0.6% to 0.4%. This is close to the 0.3% expected by the markets. Therefore, it is not a bad decline. Annual CPI remained stable at 3.7%. At least a drop to 3.6% would have brought some life to the markets but unfortunately this did not happen. In addition to this, monthly core CPI remained stable at 0.3%. In an environment where core PPI was rising, I was happy that at least core CPI remained stable, but unfortunately it is not enough.

On the same day, US jobless claims figures were released. Jobless claims did not rise this week as expected but remained stable. So at least this indicator looks good.

For forex traders, the UK monthly GDP figures were announced on Thursday. The figures announced as 0.2% met the market's expectations.

On Friday, there was an event that the markets never expected. The Chinese annual CPI figures, which were announced as 0.1% last month, were expected to be announced as 0.2% by the market this month. But China turned the markets upside down by announcing 0%. This announcement brought some movement to the markets and gave precious metals an optimistic rise.

In addition, I recommend Forex traders to pay attention to the parliamentary elections in New Zealand today.

GOLD

Last week, I talked about the rise in gold and I also mentioned that $1980 was a support level. This week, gold, which found support at $1980, started to rise and rose above $2000. I think this run will continue at least until $2020. But whatever happens, my opinion is that the long-term gold run has started. Therefore, as always, I still have a large amount of gold in my portfolio.

NATURALGAS

Natural gas retested the $3.60 resistance this week but could not break it and fell back to $3.44. This is a really important development, especially for Europe's macroeconomy. Unless natural gas breaks above $3.60, it will not be able to continue its run, which will at least stagnate Europe's energy costs for a while. I would say that especially the $3.25 level is the uptrend follow-up level for investors trading in futures. Natural gas that will fall below this level will continue to decline. As long as it stays above this level, natural gas will try to break the $3.60 resistance again.

OIL

We have seen an almost 5% drop in oil this week. However, it has become certain for me that oil has made a symmetrical triangle formation. Therefore, for me, as long as oil does not fall below $86, it will target $92 resistance. As it falls below the $86 level, the decline will begin and the rise will begin with the break of the $92 resistance. We hope that oil will fall below the $86 level and pull energy costs down for most governments, causing monetary policies to loosen more.

DXY

This week, the US Dollar index found support at $105.500, again following the fibonacci retracement. Although the $105.500 level seems to be firm support at the moment, a possible daily candle close below it would be enough to pull the index down to $104.500. Therefore, it is important to monitor this level carefully.

SP500

The SP500 index has been correcting since August. When we look at this correction, I also see that it is in line with the Elliot Wave principle. Last week, the index fell to $4115 and found the support level indicated by the volume profile indicator. I think that the index will find support around this level and return to the uptrend. Therefore, although I think that it will go down to $4060 this week, I think that it will close the week around the $4130 level. At such a close, I will receive a return confirmation. When I receive a return confirmation, I will review my share portfolio in the US stock market and make the necessary purchases.

BIST100

This week BIST100 took back what they gave. The index, which fell to 7400 Lira support, may rise again if it holds here. However, especially the foreign policy attitude expressed by the Turkish president for days seems to pull the index much lower. Especially with the break of 7300, the target will be 6400. I can expect a return at the end of this decline, but I think it is unlikely to return from 7400.

DAX

Having been rejected from the €16200 level in the past months, we have seen the German Stock Index deepen its decline this week. According to the Fibonacci retracement, this decline is likely to continue at least until €14400. I expect a reversal around €14400, but when it reaches this level, I will look again at Germany's macroeconomic indicators to see if the environment is suitable for the stock market to rise. If I see a reversal from this level, I will start adjusting my German stock market portfolio.

USDT.D

Looking at Tether's dominance index in the cryptocurrency market, I can clearly see that the dominance broke down the symmetrical triangle this week. This is a really positive indicator for the cryptocurrency market. I'm expecting a retest next week, and after the retest, I think the index will decline by up to 5%, which will be the lifeblood for cryptocurrencies.

BITCOIN

Last week, the breakout I mentioned happened and Bitcoin went up to $35000. At the moment, since I see that Bitcoin is in the overbought zone, I think that it should retreat at least to $31000 and then rise again by finding support here. Since I left my short-term holdings at $35000, I will switch back to holdings at $31000. I do not plan to buy short-term again until it corrects. If it finds support at $32700 during this retreat, I will analyze the support it will find during the week.

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