Welcome to Watch The Stats!

Welcome to Watch The Stats! My name is Nick. My projection model outputs odds for 4 levels of NHL success, leading to in-depth career projections. I will go over how the model works, but if you just want to see what’s available, head down to the bottom of this page!

Goal of the Model

My objective is to give in-depth and meaningful career-long projections. I use a player’s offensive productionto find players who produced similarly in the past to see what a prospect’s potential is today. I adjust a player’s production in multiple ways, including team strength and age. I calculate odds for multiple tiers based on career NHL points per game pace that correspond to an NHL lineup projection.

How It Works

The first step is using NHLe to find historical comparisons for prospects today. If you know what NHLe is, you can skip this paragraph. If not, then this is for you. NHLe is the idea that any production level can be evaluated to an equivalent production level in the NHL. For example, if Player A scored X points in the WHL, how many points is that worth in the NHL? It’s a relatively simple metric that can be used to do some pretty cool stuff. This model uses all the prospect’s NHLe equivalencies for one season to create a weighted average NHLe equivalency using the games played in each league as weights.

I have NHLe values for over 190 leagues, and for every season since 1990-1991. Hockey leagues across the globe are always changing, which is why it’s so important to have different and up-to-date values for each season.

Once we have NHLe equivalencies for a prospect’s production, our goal is to find players who did similar things in the past. My database has over 470,000 players whose past production gets used to project what the future holds for today’s prospects.

The most similar players are now used to build odds. The odds are a weighted average of all the top comps, with the weights being how good the player became and how similar they are to the prospect. Each career projection tier (1st Line/Pair, 2nd Line/Pair, 3rd Line/Pair, 4th Line/7th D, Bust) has different weights for all five odds calculations. Once that weighted average is taken, it outputs the prospect's odds!

Reading the Card, “What Does This All Mean?!”

Now that you know how the odds are created, it’s important to know how to find the information you want to see on the card, which is made up of multiple sections. They include: a bio, a current projection breakdown, previous years’ projections, and D-1 to D+5 production.

Starting with the bio, it includes draft information, the prospect’s age in terms of years after their first draft-eligible season, nationality, the year that they were first draft-eligible, position, height, and career NHL stats.

The current projection breakdown showcases the five possibilities that I model and their respective odds. Using these categories, a meaningful projection can be made. Some examples of these projections are: Likely Top 6 F, Unlikely NHLer, Possible Middle 6 F, Certain 1st Pair, and much, much more! The chart right under shows how a player’s odds have changed over time, specifically from their D-1 (age 16 season) to their D+5 (age 22 season).

The production section shows the prospect’s production for every season in the league where they played the most games. The blue bars are the NHLe equivalency for that stint. Keep in mind that if a prospect played in multiple leagues in a season, not all will be displayed, even though all are factored into the calculations.

What’s Included With a Membership?

Here is everything you receive when you become a Watch The Stats member, depending on which tier you select.

Star Members ($5/month or $50/year)

- WTS Projection Cards

- In Season Player Rankings, updated weekly

- Customizable personal watchlist, use this to track your own fantasy or favorite prospects

- 2026 Draft Rankings

- NHLe Values

- Historical Draft Rankings

- NHLe Career Cards

NHLer Members ($3/month or $30/year)

- WTS Projection Cards

If any of this interests you, then join this community and get access to all of these things. If you have any questions, please email me at nhleprospectcards@gmail.com. You can try to DM me on twitter but I can’t promise a fast response. Email is the best way to go!

I look forward to having you in this community!