For this example, I am looking to SHORT this stock. For those who actually read through this, it will be VERY HELPFUL for learning how to TIME THE MARKET.
The photo above (4 panel view)π I made visually to show you the process I go through for trade entry. ( I usually only keep 1 window/panel open since I confirm trend, and no longer need to look at higher time frames)
You will do the SAME process for BUYs.
STEP 1 - I look at higher time frames to CONFIRM TREND DIRECTION. Only BUY in UP TRENDS. Only SHORT in DOWN TRENDS. I don't like to try to catch falling knife trades.
1. The Trend is your friend.
2. When in doubt, wait it out.
STEP 2 - I look at 4 hour time frame because this is what I usually trade off of (just my preference.. because I can get into a trade in a day and hold it for a day or more. Trade what you prefer.. ) 4hour trend is confirmed and GOING IN SAME DIRECTION as 12 HR.
STEP 3 - I check out around 15 min chart. (This could be 8min, 10min, 15 min, 30min- I look for charts that dont have a bunch of crowded MACD signals in this range)
Example: Not crowded MACD β
Example: crowded MACD β (avoid time frame, more cross overs = more confusion)
STEP 4. I start looking for a entry on a lower time frame to make sure that when I enter my trade, it's most probable to go in my favor. This minimizes downside, and if it really pics up speed I can just move my stop-loss to break even quickly, to make this a close to 0 risk trade.
WARNING: Becareful how fast you move your stop-loss because you could be cutting yourself out of the trade at a loss. You don't want DEATH BY 1,000 STOP-LOSSES. I use ATR indicator to set my stop losses.
STEP 5 - Now I set a alert to notify me.
I wait.
SIGNAL
3:35 PM EST (market very slow at this time ) From this I can see that we got the SHORT SIGNAL but INFINITUS SYMPHONY (very bottom) is not giving me pink dots/pink bars yet.. price may be trying to climb up to 200 day EMA (yellow dotted line), also see the 15 min chart still climbing. So I wait more..
3:48 PM EST
Unfortuately this is a very low liquidity time to trade. For this example we are basically watching paint dry... Price not really moving so I will wait. I try not to make guesses because that would be more gambling. (any time I'm in a active trade and I feel it could go either way, I get shook π₯and try to exit to avoid losses. )
3:57 PM EST Still not in trade because MACD might cross up again on 3 min. 15min Chart still could go strong up. I wait more, so I set another alert.
5:00 PM EST Short Signal alert, but Future markets close 5 - 6pm. So I wait more.. Chart update π. Here I can see on the 15min chart MACD that it appears to be heading in the direction we want, we want a MACD crossover to give us more downward pull π. If we can get into a 3min short, and then have the 15min cross over, we will be basically riding the wave down. πββοΈ
TIP: We can see on the 2nd SHORT signal it is a Lower High, this means we are still in short trend.
6:25 PM EST 04-Jun-2024
Market has been open and there is just no liquidity for this future outside US trading times.
Which makes me very nervous to trade because smaller volumes can move price more wild.
If I can't get back into trade. Here are the steps I take so that this continues to be of value.
STEP 1: BUY SHORT
STEP 2: Put STOP LOSS using ATR indicator
STEP 3: Measure 1.5 Risk Reward using Short Position Tool. Place at entry price, pull back to Stop-loss price then pull down to 1.5 ratio and set Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (take Profit) targets. This will automatically close trades once hit because I am trading through brokerage DIRECTLY IN TRADING VIEW. Google how to connect trade broker to Trading View. Link to broker list - https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000479307-what-brokers-can-i-trade-through-on-tradingview/
NEXT : once my trade is profitable I will move to my entry price so I'm not risking anything, BUT I keep in mind the time frame I'm trading on.. Because If this trade starts to pick up pace, I will remove/change my take profit, and move to a HIGHER TIME FRAME such as a 15min and may adjust my stop-loss to keep the trade open and profitable.
TO EXIT TRADE:
I use Bolenger Bands and/or break in Trend.
How it works and looks for Shorts and Longsπ
Trade exit using Trend lines
7:25 PM EST No price movement. I will have to check back tomorrow. π THE END.
11:00 AM Next day trade. SAME SETUP on WHEAT SHORT!!! π
Move Stop losses to ATR π
Next turn on your Bolinger Bands for EXIT π
Now we wait.
11:11 AM Today, I will choose to move my stop loss up to +$7 to cover any fees. I'm up $88 unrealized gains.
This is a point it is 100% personalized. You COULD just keep your stoploss at ATR SL price which was -$61 to avoid getting stomped out of the trade and just let it ride to your take Take Profit which would have been 1.5 ratio. In this current trade I did not move my default take profit which is $413.75. I let it float out there and check higher time frames point of intersect like other time frame 200 day EMAs and trend lines.
And I wait..
While waiting you can scope out other time frames. I entered on the 1 min, but if the 10min, or 30min look good I can step away now.
As I've been writing this my $7 Stop-loss was hit. (Price went to +$380, but I was greedy. π ) So I am now out of the trade. This is a reason why you might want to keep your stoploss at initial ATR, but I jump back in. OR I could of moved my stoploss SL to my 1.5 ratio - my mistake.
So I just jumped back into trade at MACD crossover.
I think you understand how the system works. Currently in the money at +$72.
Hope you enjoyed this deep dive.