I’ve found a work-around for logging into BMAC until they’re able to fix it. So back to my briefings on here.
Semiconductors (led by NVDA) continue to chug ahead leading the market higher as AAPL and other big tech names lag/drop. Below are three charts, NVDA, AAPL and MSFT. These are the top three largest publicly traded companies in the entire world. When there’s this much divergence, especially when it’s in a similar sector, that should cause any investor/trader to consider what is happening.
Aside from AI hype, I can’t even begin to speculate on why NVDA has been chosen to carry the entire market on its shoulders, but it makes for some pretty scary scenarios playing out in the future. Imagine if NVDA has one negative press release. What would happen to the market then? If one can get past the hype, the picture becomes a little more clear.
Market analysts were making some big claims a few weeks ago: small caps and other sectors were going to catch up to big tech and carry this market even higher. What’s actually happened is that small caps continue to underperform, and large cap tech companies have fallen out of favor as one single sector (semis; and even more NVDA as a single company) has carried the market on its back in a b-line straight past all time highs.
I haven’t been more confident in a market thesis since I’ve started trading. This market is being propped up by hundreds of billions of dollars in government printing and eventually, at the very least, has to come back down to its mean. More likely, though, the pendulum correction will be even more devastating to portfolios as investors begin considering fundamental and technical factors in evaluations, as has defined the entire history of the stock market.
As for tomorrow, I have no plan. I have no more liquidity to enter into any position and will wait for the inevitable correction - no matter how long it takes. Some important dates are listed below:
3/7/24 9pm EST - State of the Union - It’s possible that the market has been elevated into the State of the Union, though I prefer not to speculate on politics in the market.
3/11/24 - BTFP ends, ending shadow liquidity into the market.