This morning's open was unexpected for me, but demonstrates why it's so important to be able to pivot. It also shows how beneficial scaling into your bias side can help to bring money in when it finally plays out. Let me explain. I have been medium-term bearish for a few days now (ever since we lost the trend line for the second time). I began scaling into SPXU a few days ago, while also picking up some SQQQ yesterday on the peaks. This morning, a few minutes before the market opened, we saw some selling pressure in the premarket bring us right below 422.14. This was the significant level I've been talking about: bullish above and bearish below. Since I had SPXU and SQQQ, I didn't need to play too aggressively by entering into short shares right at 9:30. I allowed SPXU and SQQQ to work for me, and when selling started getting weak, was able to enter into long shares (against my core position) to ride some of the buy pressure up. When that hit my first target is when I took profit, and entered short shares on the rejection. By doing this, I was able to leverage the bullishness while still remaining bearish overall. I don't say this to gloat, but to demonstrate how lucrative base-hits can be if they're done intentionally and consistently!
On to my technical analysis. I am somewhat biased now for a bounce between 414 and 416. There is 415.58/72 support that has been significant for the last couple years, as well as this new downward trend line that may or may not prove significant. This being said, there's a few inverted cup and handles (one on the 30min/daily and another one that formed into the close) that might take us right through support. If this plays out, price action might be similar to a beach ball pushed underwater, eventually seeing a strong bounce before making another leg down. I'll keep updating as we see more development.
Plan for tomorrow: Bullish above 415 and bearish below. If we gap down and see buying pressure into the open, my first target would be a retest of today's close: 417.55. Based on selling pressure from today, I believe 422.14 to have been truly lost as support. This means that any bullishness I play will be quick scalps, and longer-term trades will be mostly on the bear side (unless we see extreme selling to cut through supports without retests. Clean rallies are demonstrated by increased volume below resistance, a break over, and retest to confirm that level has truly broken. The same can be said about sell offs, except with supports. Choppy action with a lot of retests (what we saw today) will demonstrate true strength, and I await to see if this is what we get. If we lose 415 and see increased selling, the next targets are 411 and 404.36ish. Will update further as we get closer to those levels. Good luck tomorrow and happy trading!