It's been a while since I've posted on here. They finally let me back into my account. Either that or something with the network has changed, allowing me access.
SPY is still above the gap fill around 497.21 and above 500. Buyers rapidly ate up the plunge below, showing support there for the time being. I've also drawn a potential descending broadening wedge - usually a bullish pattern - in which a break out would target around 520. This is an amateur pattern in my opinion, so it's not something I'm putting much stock in unless it breaks. I say that due to the blatant disregard we've seen with technicals the past 6 months, which I want to touch on briefly.
I'm not sure if anyone else is seeing what I am, but here it is. Since November, we've see an almost straight-up move. A lot of breakouts in the beginning occurred overnight, which is something that I've seen usually precede significant downturns (see 2018, 2019 into Covid 2020, and the massive QE rally from November 2020 into the beginning of 2022). If you look at the strong market growth between 2011 and 2015, overnight gaps were usually met with gap fills shortly after. Recently, we've seen substantial gaps all the way from 420 to 520 with very few of them actually filled.
Another red flag is how confident inexperienced traders/investors are. We're in a time of euphoria, once again, where everyone and their mom thinks it's a good idea to put their savings in the market. I recently spoke with a mortgage broker who, upon receiving his inheritance from his late mother, put it all into Bitcoin because he "doesn't want to miss out." The market has a funny way of screwing over the vast majority of retail, and I don't think this time is any different. In my few years of experience, people with a fear of missing out on investments aren't the ones who usually come out on top.
I am not saying there will be a sell off tomorrow, but I do think it's coming. I think the market downturn is going to catch a lot of people off guard and be more substantial than people think. If I'm wrong, so be it. But I am being highly cautious and will remain that way for quite a while. Good luck as always to everyone out there. I hope this season has been successful.