I’ve been doing a bit of snooping, and it seems the whispers are getting louder about an upcoming American Express Membership Rewards devaluation in Australia.
While nothing has been confirmed by AMEX (yet), the changes (if true) could have a big impact on how we transfer points to airline partners.
The Rumoured Changes
The current 2:1 transfer rate for most airline partners is rumoured to be reduced to 3:1.
That means instead of 2 MR points equalling 1 airline mile, you’d need 3 MR points for 1 airline mile or a HUGE 50% increase in the cost of transferring to most partners
There are a couple of rumoured exceptions:
Virgin Australia Velocity – staying at 2:1
Qantas Frequent Flyer – staying at 2:1
Emirates Skywards – taking an even bigger hit, dropping from 3:1 to 4:1 (seeing a 33% increase)
Hotel partners are expected to remain at the same transfer rates.
It’s also unknown whether we’ll see any new partner additions which are already featured within the Australian market (pay.com.au and other banking providers)
Aeroplan (Air Canada)
Atmos Rewards (Alaska Airlines)
LotusMiles (Vietnam Airlines)
MileagePlus (United Airlines)
It’s also unclear whether the earning rate of 2.25 MR points per $1 will be increased or whether any extra perks will be introduced to Platinum Card Holders?
Current vs Rumoured New Transfer Rates
When Could This Happen?
The rumour suggests these changes could take effect as soon as 15 December 2025 right before the summer holiday period (watch this space)
Why This Matters
This could be a significant hit for points collectors:
It comes after many have already redeemed heavily for Virgin Australia and Qantas bookings in 2025 due to their own devaluations
The upcoming Singapore Airlines award bookings will now be even more competitive.
Booking premium cabin flights on points is already getting harder — a devaluation like this would make it significantly more challenging to extract good value from MR points.
How Other Point Earning Credit Cards will be Impacted?
If Amex is heading for a Membership Rewards devaluation, rest assured this isn’t happening in isolation.
When one of the biggest players in the Australian points game moves the goalposts, history tells us others often follow. If Amex tightens its transfer rates, it’s only a matter of time before the other major credit card reward programs take a hit too.
Whether it’s Westpac Altitude, ANZ Rewards, NAB Rewards, CommBank Awards, Citi Rewards, or even bank-issued Velocity/Qantas cards, the banks tend to watch each other closely.
If Amex — with its premium positioning and high-earning cards — can get away with reducing value, the rest of the market will feel emboldened to “align” their programs accordingly.
We wrote an article on the changes here
And here’s the reality check: if Amex pulls the trigger in 2025, we’ll almost certainly see the rest of the market follow suit in 2026. That means the point-earning game as we know it will get much harder — fewer points, worse transfer rates, and more effort needed to land those premium cabin redemptions.
Final Word
This is still unconfirmed by American Express and still a RUMOUR, and we don’t yet know whether there will be any sweeteners such as new partners, bonus transfer promotions, or increased earn rates.
But if you’ve been sitting on a large MR balance, now might be the time to keep your ear to the ground and perhaps move sooner rather than later if you’ve got a redemption in mind.
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