Overall MLB Postseason Record: 41-21
Recommended Picks: 36-18
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Stretch Bets: 5-3
All games left to right from oldest to most recent
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World Series Game 1 - Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
Pitcher Props
Yesterday I posted my pitcher outs analysis in the daily thread. To avoid being redundant I will let you go back and take a look.
Nathan Eovaldi Outs O 15.5 (-130 on DK) 1u
I scooped this up at -115 when the line was posted yesterday and posted about it on Twitter. The line has moved since down to -130 on DK. I do see a 16.5 out line on MGM offering the over at -122. I do think 16.5 is reasonable, but I will be sticking with my 15.5 recommendation, as I prefer the wiggle room in game one.
Batter Props
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Hits + Runs + RBIs O 1.5 (+100 boosted to +125 on DK) 1u
Versus Eovaldi
Gurriel and Eovaldi have faced each other a total of 20 times from 2018 to 2022. Tonight will be their first meeting of 2023. Gurriel is batting .389 lifetime with 7 hits (2 HRs & 5 singles), 2 BBs, and 4 Ks.
2023 Postseason Occurrences
This postseason Gurriel has achieved 1.5+ HRR in 7/14 games. 4/7 of those in the NLCS, 2/3 in the NLDS, and 1/2 in the NLWC.
Gurriel is coming into game one with a five game postseason hit streak. I think with the stats shown and his history against Eovaldi, we should see this prop hit. At plus odds this is a pretty decent bet.
Marcus Semien O 1.5 Total Bases (+105) 1u
Versus Gallen
Semien has nine at bats against Gallen. Six at bats this year and three at bats in 2022. He has gone 5-8 which comes out to a .625 BA with three singles, two doubles, a walk, and a strikeout. He hit a single and a double off of Gallen in both games Gallen started against the Rangers this year.
2023 Postseason Occurrences
Semien has achieved 1.5+ TB in five of his twelve postseason games. It only hit twice in the ALCS, the other three times were twice in the ALDS and once in the ALWC. I realize it doesn't sound as promising as Gurriel's prop, but Semien has clearly seen the ball well against Gallen this year. I also expect Gallen's performance to continue to decline, as he hasn't had the strongest postseason.
Stretch Bet
YRFI (-115 boosted to +115 on DraftKings)
Another boost, another time I am being baited. YRFI hit 9/14 times combined between the ALCS and NLCS this year. In the past six years, world series game one YRFI has hit 4/6 times. I am not normally for trends that span years, but I am going with my gut while also assuming some nerves come into play. If I had to guess, it will be the Rangers that score first on a Gallen with a worse than expected postseason thus far.