I don't see odds out for number of outs, but I am hoping that those are offered as I want to get back into them. Seeing as we have an extra day I figured I would get more into the weeds than usual.
Looking ahead to the pitching match for game one, we have Eovaldi vs. Gallen. I want to look at this from two angles.
Game 1 Out Stats
Note: Tables are not a formatting option in the current version of Buy Me a Coffee that I am using. To see the tables please go to my Reddit comment.
First, I am asking this question: How both teams have handled game one pitchers this postseason? I am normally against trends and comparing one series to another. But I think looking at how the team's respective managers handled game one outings is important.
Rangers Game Ones Pitching Table
We have seen the very strong Montgomery in two out of three game ones this postseason. They were strong performances, and he earned 21 and 19 outs. The Heaney game was a bullpen game, so harder to gauge off of, but 8 outs were earned.
Diamondbacks Game Ones Pitching Table
Diamondbacks had a similar story, however Pfaadt was not intended to be a bullpen game, he was shelled. Kelly with 19 outs and Gallen with 15.
Pitcher's Performance
Gallen and Eovaldi both have had relatively strong outing this postseason.
Eovaldi has a 2.16 ERA in five games with a 3-0 record. He has pitched 25 innings, with a 15 out average. Note, this includes his ALCS 2.1 inning appearance. Only looking at starts, we see this stat line: 2.38 ERA, 22.2 IP, 17 out average. His worse outing was game two of the ALDS, in a high scoring 11-8 win for the Rangers, where he only pitched four innings. The Diamondback's offense has not been the most high flying, only scoring more than five runs twice this postseason. I could see him getting 6 IP.
We can look for the lines to see what the play is, but if the books put out any conservative 14.5 or 15.5 out lines I will likely go for the over. 16.5 isn't unreasonable, but it will mean that we expect a strong outing from Montgomery, rather than just an okay one. Two ER or less can net him 6 innings, four or five ER will net him 5 innings, and three ER will go down to matchup in the fifth inning. Obviously this will still be dependent on the odds given to us on what I will want to take.
Gallen is sporting a 5.24 ERA in four games with a 2-2 record. He has pitched 22.1 innings, with a 15.5 out average. The Ranger's offense, on the other hand, has shown to be more dangerous. We have seen many high scoring games with them, and they hit the longball which has shown to be the recipe to success in the postseason historically. His worst outing ERA wise was game one of the NLCS, where he gave up 5 ER in 5 IP with a 4.96 ERA. He had 5 IP in game two of the NLDS with only 2 ER as well. Lovullo keeping him in through five innings while getting hit hard means he wants to get length out of his starters. This tells me that generally he will be good for 15 minimum outs, unless something truly disastrous occurs.
We saw Lovullo pull Pfaadt after 3 ER in 2.2 innings. Pfaadt being a rookie did not help his case or give Lovullo as much confidence as he will have in a veteran like Gallen. This is game one of the world series. We won't see a manager punt the game if their starter doesn't perform well, but they can't afford to dip into their bullpen too early unless something goes truly awry.
Again, this depends on odds and lines but I would be pretty happy with an 14.5 line to take the over on.