EXPLANATION OF THE BELOW
This is a framework that I think is particularly useful for identifying teams and players that could be due for general increases in prices due to upcoming games against teams that are lowly ranked. It won't factor in injuries or specifics around player form, and it doesn't factor in the quality of the team in question (only their opposition) however it does track and adjust to opposition form.
To explain the data, the below indicates which teams have a run of fixtures starting in the gameweek that this is posted (i.e. starting with gameweek 310) against opposition that ranks low on the their respective home and away tables for their domestic league.
Say for example Ajax has 3 upcoming games against the 13th ranked home team, the 18th ranked away team, and the 16th ranked home team respectively. As there are 18 teams in Eredivisie they are playing 13th of 18. 18th of 18 and 16th of 18.This is calculated as (13 divided by 18) plus (18 divided by 18), plus (16 divided by 18).
(why? because different leagues have a different number of teams. If we didn't adjust the data by the number of teams, then teams from small leagues - i.e. Croatia with only 10 teams - would never feature highly on the rankings, while larger leagues - i.e. any league with 20+ teams - would dominate the rankings even if only playing against lower-mid table opposition)This equals 2.61, we then divide that number by 3
(why? because 2.61 is the total number across the 3 games and we want to find the average level of the upcoming opposition, not the total level)
This gives us a score of 0.8704, which when expressed as a % is 87.04%(i.e. they are playing opposition that is on average ranked 87/100 - i.e. towards the bottom end of the table)
In a 20-team league, a score of 98.3% is theoretically the best possible score over a 3-game period as it would indicate that in the next 3 games they play against the worst home team, worst away team, and second worst home or away team. This does mean that the best score a small 10-team league such as Croatia could muster is less than a larger 20-team league as the second to last ranked side is 9/10, rather than 19/20, however this is probably fair as to be bottom 2 of a 20-team league is harder than bottom 2 of a 10-team league.
Too many numbers/TLDR?
The higher the %, the better the run of upcoming fixtures
The Numbers:
Next 3 Fixtures
Thoughts:
They don't have many players in Sorare, but Arouca tops the standing with a very high score of 94.44%. They play against the worst home side (Pacos Ferreira), 3rd worst away side (Famalicao) and 2nd worst home side (Maritimo) in the next 3 fixtures. As a result I picked up 3 copies of Vitinho (who is only 1 of 3 players at Arouca with Sorare cards) as not only is he the only one of those 3 playing regularly at Arouca, but he started the last game, grabbing an assist and falls within the L15 40 and under category for use in Specialist. SorareData does indicate he was subbed off with a knock in the last game though, and I haven't been able to find out any details on the injury. He does still look to represent reasonable value in my view if he is fit for the next game (which I am hoping is the case given the international break gives extra time to recover). It is fair to say that I am biased though, having bought 3 copies of his limited card!
Caen look like a team of opportunities in particular, with a high score for the upcoming fixtures and their xGF rank for GW310 being 14th overall across the leagues we cover, and their xGA rank being 38th across the leagues we cover. They play worst away side Quevilly in 310, followed by 5th worst away side Niort, then worst home side Stade Laval. There are a couple of L15 40 and under players in this team that look useable, however given the low supply of players from this team so far (only newly minting) and the clear awareness of the upcoming favourable fixtures from existing owners, many of these players are quite expensive relative to other options, but you might be able to win one for a reasonable price off of a new auction. I particularly like the look of 34 y/o Romain Thomas, who I have just picked up. Romain has conceded two penalties in the last 3 games.Romain spent much of his career in with Angers, playing in Ligue 1 from 2015 until the end of last season. Over the last 5 seasons in Ligue 1 he has only conceded 5 penalties; the last time he conceded more than 1 was back in 17/18 and he conceded none last season in Ligue 1. One would expect some mean reversion here and very few if any penalties for the remainder of the season. He has averaged a few goals and assists each season and is already off to a flyer with 2 goals and an assist in his first 9 games for Caen. He is averaging a score of 60.9 so far in the league and has an average AA of 21.4 so far this season in spite of 1 absolutely dreadful game where he scored a 1.24 overall score!
Fortuna Sittard also look like a team of opportunities with some very cheap options available. Burak Yilmaz might be the wrong side of 35, but he has notched 4 decisives in his last 5 games (1 decisive in each of those 4 games) and had his strike partner sent off in GW306. There's no way the coach rotates him out also for their very tasty home match against Volendam who have conceded 14 goals in 4 away games so far this season and sit 16th in the away tables. At the absolute bargain end sits Ivo Pinto who I have bought 2 limited copies of and looks to be the replacement for Mickael Tirpan who has moved to Kasimpasa. Pinto having started the last two league games has coinceded with a marked improvement at the defensive end for Fortuna. They have however also just signed Ximo Navarro on a free (September 14th) who had finished his contract with Alaves, while the new Fortuna Sittard manager was at Alaves for 8 games at the end of last season. I suspect that this will mean competition at RB for Pinto, although the manager could decide to play Pinto at CB and Navarro at RB with 34 y/o Siovas going off with a reported injury in the last game (I have looked everywhere to try and find detail on what the injury was, but could not find anything specific), and with Pinto having played CB at times in his career. Tijanni Noslin could also represent good value as both an L15 40 and under and u23 candidate.
Next 5 Fixtures
Thoughts:
Arouca remain at the top. Little to add here with games 4 and 5 in this run coming against the teams currently ranked 11th away (surprisngly this is Sporting) and 16th at home (Vizela).
Jahn Regensburg first popped up on the radar for me in Gameweek 306 with the begginings of a strong run, and it remains so as from Gameweek 310 they play the teams ranked 18th at home (Magdeburg), 17th away (Furth), 8th at home (FC Kaiserslautern), 16th away (Sandhausen) and 13th away (Hansa Rostock). I picked up the limited cards of a couple of their players last week and would suggest following the new card auctions to pick up a few more bargains. They started their run against lower opposition in GW306 with a solid 2-0 win over St Pauli at home, however their forwards have been incredibly lacklustre with Prince Osei Owusu failing to record a single decisive in 6 starts and 3 bench appearances so far this season. He also has no AA game. During his run of 3 games benched, Aygun Yildirim came in for 2 games, offering 0 decisives and has returned to cameos off the bench, having also offered no decisives this season. Andreas Albers & Nicklas Shipnoski have been the lone 'forwards' to offer decisives, however both are more attacking midfielders than players leading the line. It would not surprise me if recent acquisition from Wolfsberger - Dario Vizinger is given a chance to lead the line in the coming weeks, with him getting increasing minutes off the bench in his first 3 matches at the club, thus I have picked up a couple of his limited cards. At a floor of 0.068, his forward card could be a very good opportunity should he take his eventual chance at starting.
Ankaragucu are not a great team (currently bottom of the league away from home), however they have an improving fixture run over the next 6 gameweeks and are the 12th best home side currently. They play a reasonable Basaksehir at home in GW310 which they probably lose, so it may be prudent to wait to pick up any players following that result. In Gameweek 312 they play away against the current worst home team Istanbulspor. This could prove to be a relegation 6-pointer. Instanbulspor themselves have a decent selection of fixtures from gameweek 312 until the world cup break, apart from a tough game week 314 away to none other than Basaksehir.
Best of luck for the coming gameweek.
SorareGrind