*Please note that a number of leagues are not yet covered by our data. This includes the Swiss Super League, English Championship, Norweigian Eliteserien & Danish Superliga, all Americas leagues, all Champion Europe leagues & La Liga 2. All of these leagues will be included in coverage over time, being incrementally added...*
For those wondering how this xGF and xGA data is generated, we have taken the home and away performance of all teams covered across all leagues in the prior season (wins, draws, losses, goals for and against), replacing relegated teams with the corresponding promoted teams, and used this as baseline data to start the season. Once all team in a league have played 5 home and away games in the season, we switch to basing the data entirely off the current season. Usually this is upon completion of gameweek 11.
For example, teams that conceded a lot of goals on the road last season (above the league average), will be expected to concede a lot of goals on the road again this season, especially against teams who scored a lot of goals at home last season.
Obviously though, a new season is a new season, and things change! Thus the xGF and xGA data is designed to be self-correcting over time, and to adjust for form. If a team is expecting to only score 1 goal given they have a tough fixture, and yet they go and score 4, this will provide a boost to their xG in future gameweeks. Meanwhile, if a team is expected to score 4 (that's very rare) and does score 4, they won't receive a boost to their future xG as they have merely met expectations. This works the same in reverse and for xGA.
For example, a team keeping clean sheets when not expected will receive future boosts to lower the xGA relative to their opposition (you probably won't find some bottom of the table team having a low xGA when playing top of the table side regardless how good their form is).
Something to note is that this data doesn't cover the domestic cup games or mid-week European action and doesn't factor in injuries or player signings. Frankly at this point it's a bit too difficult to factor all those variables in, but perhaps in time it will be possible.
Below are the top 60 across our coverage for xGF and xGA
Note: Because you are often picking players for use in blended competitions (i.e. All star, All star pro, U23, specialist, underdog, underdog 45, etc.), it makes sense to have a top 60 that covers all leagues within Sorare. Hopefully this is useful as information to guide team composition at the defensive end (especially goalkeepers) for the gameweek.
xGF
Thoughts:
Expect to see many of the usuals at the top of the leaderboards this week. For a bit of a differential take a look at the likes of Kasimpasa, St Etienne, Sochaux & Sochi.
xGA
Thoughts:
Again, we are probably likely to see Ajax & Celtic stacks towards the top this gameweek. Zagreb tends to be less of a popular stack, and looks good at both ends of the pitch this gameweek. For a differential take a look at the likes of Konyaspor, St Etienne, Sagan, STVV & AZ Alkmaar.
Best of luck with the Gameweek.
SorareGrind