For those wondering how this xGF and xGA data is generated, we have taken the home and away performance of all teams covered across all leagues in the prior season (wins, draws, losses, goals for and against), replacing relegated teams with the corresponding promoted teams, and used this as baseline data to start the season (each league is between roughly 5 and 9 gameweeks deep into the season).
For example, teams that conceded a lot of goals on the road last season (above the league average), will be expected to concede a lot of goals on the road again this season, especially against teams who scored a lot of goals at home last season.
Obviously though, this season is a new season, and things change each season! Thus the xGF and xGA data is designed to be self-correcting over time, and to adjust for form. If a team is expecting to only score 1 goal given they have a tough fixture, and yet they go and score 4, this will provide a boost to their xG in future gameweeks. Meanwhile, if a team is expected to score 4 (that's very rare) and does score 4, they won't receive a boost to their future xG as they have merely met expectations. This works the same in reverse and for xGA.
For example, a team keeping clean sheets when not expected will receive future boosts to lower the xGA relative to their opposition (you probably won't find some bottom of the table team having a low xGA when playing top of the table side regardless how good their form is).
Something to note is that this data doesn't cover the domestic cup games and doesn't factor in injuries or player signings. Frankly at this point it's a bit too difficult to factor all those variables in, but perhaps in time it will be possible.
xGF (left) & xGA (right) Combined
Thoughts:
The data indicates that Kashima vs Tokyo will be a high scoring game, an I would expect to see both teams score here with Kashima not having been particularly great defensively at home and Tokyo being poor defensively on the road. While Kashima have drawn 4 of their last 5 league games and had only 1 win in their last 11 fixtures (!), Tokyo has only kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 7 away games in the league and has conceded 16 goals in those 7 game, winning only once in that timeframe. a 2-1 or 3-2 to Kashima here feels likely.
At the other end of the spectrum, Sagan looks good for a home clean sheet against a Kyoto side sliding their way into relegation (I believe they will be relegated along with Jubilo & Avispa). Sagan have conceded only 9 goals in 14 home matches so far this season, while Kyoto have scored 12 in 13 games, failing to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.
The data doesn't highlight them because they have been very poor at home this season, but Shimizu could also be a good pick this weekened at both ends of the pitch as they play the league's worst away side and worst overall side in Jubilo Iwata at home. Shimizu are an odd team in the sense that they are the 6th= best away side in the league but the worst home side (even worse than Jubilo!) in terms of points (1.36 pts/game away from home compared to a league average 1.16, and 0.87 pts/game at home compared to a league average 1.54). What stands out for me though is that Jubilo has not scored in their last 6 away games, and has only scored 3 in their last 11 away games, conceding 24 goals across that stretch.
It's the worst home defense vs the 2nd worst away offense.
10th best (9th worst) home offense vs 2nd worst away defense
Worst home team vs worst away team.
Both need the points.
It could go either way, but it's a 2-0 home win for Shimizu for me.
The K League
As the K-league regular season has finished, we are still waiting for an announcement on the dates for the final 5 gameweeks where the top half of the league and bottom half of the league split into 2 groups of 6 to fight for the title, and to avoid relegation respectively. Given most European leagues are finishing up between GW 320 and 322 for the World Cup break (Gameweek 322 ending roughly a week before the first game of the world cup), I suspect we may see the K league fixtures running over 5 weekend gameweeks between 310 and 320. As the K league Cup semifinals (not covered within Sorare) fall in Gameweek 311, with the two-legged final taking place in Gameweeks 317 and 318. As the 4 semifinalists are all K1 teams semifinals and the league organisers will surely want all teams to play their final league fixture at the same time, it indicates Gameweek 318 won't be the final gameweek for the league. Thus I suspect it will look something like, 310, 312, 314, 316, 320. The K league organisers will surely be wary of giving national team players a fixture pile up too close to the World Cup, with some national team players featuring in the league.
Suwon FC looks like an attractive team to pick up players from as they are the top team of the bottom half and typically a high-scoring side, especially at home. Ulsan and Jeonbuk meanwhile will battle for the title again (4th year running), where Ulsan will have hopes they can finally end their run of being runners up to Jeonbuk, which has been the case the last 3 seasons, and be the first team to win the league other than Jeonbuk since Seoul back in 2016. They go into the break ahead of Jeonbuk for the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons, however they go in with a significant 5-point margin, this time around.
Best of luck for the Gameweek.
SorareGrind