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Introduction
The accelerating competition between the United States and China in artificial intelligence is emerging as one of the defining geopolitical confrontations of the 21st century. While this rivalry is often framed in terms of national security and the defense of democratic order, most assessments focus narrowly on metrics such as innovation capacity, technological performance, and market share. This framing risks obscuring the deeper strategic reality: superior innovation, advanced technology, and commercial dominance do not automatically translate into enhanced security or political stability.
Drawing on an analysis of China’s digital and AI development, this report argues that prevailing narratives underestimate the ambition and scope of Beijing’s strategy.
Contrary to the common perception of AI as merely a “digital upgrade” to Chinese-style authoritarianism for export, China’s national AI strategy seeks to transform traditional, locally focused and reactive governance into a global, borderless system of intrusive defense. To achieve this, longstanding tools such as censorship and propaganda are being reengineered into a coordinated effort to reshape the global information ecosystem. Social governance is shifting from passive surveillance and repression to proactive detection and intervention.
Within this framework, AI serves as a strategic enabler—securing control over the future information environment and constructing a global ideological buffer zone. The objective is to align the Chinese Communist Party’s domestic and international environments with its political security requirements, ensuring consistency in information flows and ideological orientation.
China has made notable progress toward these goals, achieving advances across multiple AI domains. Yet structural dependencies, technical limitations, and external constraints continue to impede its ambitions.
For the United States, disengagement is not an option. However, the structural characteristics of Western political systems—combined with the absence of a unified strategic consensus—have produced divergent interpretations of China’s AI objectives and inconsistent policy responses. This misalignment injects uncertainty into the bilateral contest and increases the risk of unintended global consequences.
This report examines China’s approach and the strategic implications in five sections, offering options for U.S. and allied responses:
1. From Reactive Stability Maintenance to Intrusive Defense – China’s construction of a globally favorable information ecosystem and political environment.
2. An AI-Driven Global Political Ecosystem – The technological vision behind China’s AI strategy.
3. China’s AI Power Profile – The advantages, dependencies, and limitations of Chinese AI.
4. Strategic Dilemmas – Managing the triangular dynamics between China, the United States, and the European Union.
5. Restructuring Power – Identifying the real actors shaping global AI governance.
Ultimately, the U.S.–China AI competition is not simply a race for technological supremacy. It is a contest over the future distribution of power, the mechanisms for controlling and validating information, and the norms governing global systems. Its outcome will shape not only the strategic trajectory of both nations but also the operating environment for individuals, organizations, and institutions worldwide.
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“Chapter 1： From Reactive Stability Maintenance to Intrusive Defense: China’s Global Information Architecture” will be released on August 14th.
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