The article Southeast Asia Is Starting to Choose – Why the Region Is Leaning Toward China explores three decades of Southeast Asia’s geopolitical evolution, focusing on the twin pillars of security assurances and economic relations. It argues that an increasing number of Southeast Asian nations are tilting toward China, largely due to Beijing’s long-standing “valueless” diplomacy. This approach fosters economic and trade partnerships by deliberately sidestepping contentious issues such as democracy and human rights—or by subordinating them to economic interests when necessary. Such a model aligns closely with the ideological preferences of several non-democratic regimes in ASEAN, making Chinese influence more palatable to local elites.
At the same time, the Trump administration has shifted the U.S. global posture from a leader and guarantor of the international order to a disruptor and transactional actor. This pivot has unsettled Southeast Asian countries—including longstanding U.S. allies—who increasingly question Washington’s reliability as a security partner. The administration’s wavering support for Ukraine has underscored these doubts. Adding to the skepticism, Trump's tariff-heavy trade agenda, although currently paused, has further eroded Southeast Asian confidence in long-term U.S. economic engagement.
Both pillars of American regional influence—security assurance and economic ties—are now under strain. Trump's vocal support for and involvement in Israel’s war in Gaza has compounded the perception of U.S. unilateralism and further alienated some Southeast Asian governments and publics, especially those with predominantly Muslim populations. While not all of these challenges are unique to the Trump administration, its unapologetic embrace of power politics is accelerating the erosion of American soft power across the region.
Nevertheless, Southeast Asian countries continue to walk a diplomatic tightrope, seeking to balance their relationships with both China and the United States. This equilibrium is growing more precarious as great-power competition intensifies. Despite deepening economic integration with China, many Southeast Asian governments still place greater political trust in traditional power structures such as Japan, the European Union, and the United States. Yet, the region’s ultimate alignment may depend less on Beijing’s moves and more on Washington’s choices. As previously concluded in Playing Hardball in Trump’s Trade War: The Only Viable Option for the Chinese Communist Party — "the ball is in Trump’s court."
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