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Paper Trade v5 data 19th Jan Analysis

Paper Trade v5 data 19th Jan Analysis

Jan 19, 2022

It's just a quick update on the current paper trade results and what I'm interested in from the data we have gathered so far.

Paper Trade v5
This has been going on since beginning of December 2021 so it has gathered about 47 days worth of data. No new settings in this paper but at least we've had a few dips to see how the bots have coped.

First lets just look at the random coins (Set 1) for the TA settings. We expect a few settings to struggle as the coin selection was bad. Most of the TA settings have done fairly well and pretty safe, just lacking in ROI so obviously lower profits. We should expect better ROI and lower ADR with the stronger coin selection.

Now the Same settings with stronger coins

All decent performers, and relatively low ADR, bit worried about the TA 2.5, for me I would opt for the TA standard if I was to run those settings instead of the TA 2.5. I think the TA Strong Uptrend is the one I would seriously pick out of all the TA settings in this current market, due to be aggressive but covering the 60% deviation drop better, and in this market. TA2 and TA Deep Retracements are not as popular with real money due to low ROI.

Set 1

Now Lets look at the other settings. Starting with the random coins, expecting a few stuck coins (higher ADR). Don't take this Set 1 too seriously, its more just to show if you are not clever with coin selection, you can get in trouble much easier.

In this Market conditions, its not bullish so I didn't expect Mars to do well, and from the crazy market and slow bleed, its obvious that the safer settings would have been positive in Actual profit. But the ROI made would be extremely low. Anyone making over 0.5% ROI a day the last month and half are prolly not talking about their ADR or red bags. There was a reason why I said to de-risk to be at least fully covered a month ago. We would usually make 2-3 times as much profit, and not have so many red bags. I myself still haven't increased my risks since the last post about myself de-risking. The current ADR on Mars isn't too bad.

Of these settings, only Mantis settings came out profitable if considering "Actual Profit." But most cannot afford to run these settings as it costs a ton, and the ROI is low, so you need tons of money to make it worth running these type settings.
So lets just talk "ROI based on Max Funds Required" There no real standout setting for these, and they all look miserable but Mars, Alpha 3.0 Seem to give best ROI (0.13$)of this set and only just. Mizu 3.1 give slightly more at 0.14% but you really do not want to be running a Mizu in this market. The ADR is almost 2-3 times more than other settings, so they have way heavier Red Bags (stuck bots). Kiris ROi is rather low and the ADR is too high for my liking, definitely more suited to bullish markets. They are not safe bots, as they are still front loaded, but just not as heavy as Mizus.
Of the cheapest bots, Urma seems to be doing better than the RNv1 and RNv4.

TLDR - Bad coin selection will get you in trouble in this current market, only a few coins have been worth running bots for this month.

Set 2

Now Lets move to the more important Set 2. This should be the set you focus on to pick your settings.

From this Set, The best performing setting is the Mizu at 0.24% but I still don't like the high ADR, so for now I would advise against running it, unless you are really good with coin selection and know what you are doing. Its not worth the extra ROI to have potentially very large Red bags.

Just on a ROI perspective, the Mars, Mercury, Alpha3.0 have done the best running passively. But the Mercury has been the best in terms of ROI and Actual ROI. I still have concerns over how well the settings can do as an aggressive setting, but for a cheap bot, they are fine, if you have the bankroll to cover them as they average down better than Urmas on bigger drops, and ROI isn't lost much. Ideally they are actually more suited to a bullish market/coin. If you are running Mars/Mercury, its better to save some funds for manually adding funds or cover the 9th safety order. I like to run at 70% risks so 30% is for additional funds.

Kiri's have done ok, average ROI and ADR isn't too bad so its still a popular setting, but just not the best at averaging down, as the main focus of a Kiri/Mizu is to try close deals early and the majority of the funds are in the Base order. The Safety orders do very little to keep the RC% down. Again remember its a front loaded bot, you can view the Required Change Spreadsheet if you are a supporter in the links to see.

TA Strong uptrend continues to be solid and safe, ROI is not as great at 0.12% (almost half of Mars), but Actual profit and keeping ADR low (and closing deals is a bit better than Mars). But don't forget the TA Strong uptrend is more suitable for passive and covers down to 60% deviation drop. Which is why its still popular for those with bigger bankrolls. That's one of the main reasons why its not picked, because the bots costs are high and lower ROI, but its more easily set and forget than other settings.

There are no issues with a safe, and evenly distributed TA standard and TA standard 2.5, but you do drop in ROI for that safety, and you only get small profits per deal close, unless you pick up safety orders.

Of the cheap bots $250 per bot, Urma still outperform the RNv1 and RNv4 but be careful of the price dropping to the 6-7th safety order as it usually needs manual intervention, as its very weak on big drops and get stuck more. If you had more money, the Mars would be better at $365 per bot.

The better option for this month would really just run on the very strong and high performing coins. And only run a few bots. Considering indicators like QFL would be a much safer option, at the expense of low ROI. But many people stuck in the November drop have just seen their red bags drop even further... Some that started in Dec/Jan Are starting to get red bags, but not as deep. I would still remain cautious and no way run overextended currently. Saving some money to cover for adding funds/safety orders is the best option or just not running with much risks.

Say you wanted to run indicators, with the (I'm feel) Start Conditions, and a Mars settings you can still make profit but at a lower ROI (0.14%) compared to ASAP on Mars (0.20%).
RSI-7, 3 minutes, 70
RSI-7, 4 hours, 63
ULT, 3 minutes, 67
ULT, 2 hours, 57

For ROI only in strongest order - Mercury, Mars, Alpha3.0, Urma, TA SU, TA Standard, TA Safer would be solid picks if good coin choice.
For the safest in terms of still in profit (Actual Profit) - Mercury, TA SU, Alpha 3.0 are the winners

(There's not many running Mercury or I haven't gotten as much feedback as the Mars).

I will do an update on the newer settings later, but that will be for members only, as it requires more detailed analysis for each setting and there's a few that really interest me.

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