The Scout Report - Rd 12
This week, we cover our key players to buy, watch, hold & sell + recapping how our teams went in Round 11.
Buys/Ones to Watch/Holds/Sells
Buys
Zac Hosking - EDG ($599k)
We included Hosking last week as a buy, and he remains a solid option. His price hasn’t moved significantly meaning if you haven’t got him, now is the best opportunity to bring him in before he starts rising. With a low breakeven, favourable bye coverage and a locked in big minute role as a result of Nicholson’s injury, Hosking is a great player to bring in this week.
James Tedesco - WFB ($709k)
With Edwards getting the nod over Tedesco for NSW, he won’t be involved in the Origin series barring any injuries to Edwards. Roosters are the only team to play in all the major and minor bye rounds, and with so few reliable WFB options available during this period, he is a very attractive option.
Herbie Farnworth - CTR ($767k)
Farnworth just continues to score well every week, now averaging 60 ppg for the season. This week his opposition centre is likely Blake Taaffe, which is a very strong matchup. One of our favourite captaincy options also. Rock solid option to buy.
Reuben Garrick - CTR/WFB ($601k)
Garrick has been a bit quiet from a fantasy perspective since his 97 point performance, with his scores fluctuating week to week. He’s been hot and cold which has been frustrating but it will even out over time, and there is still plenty of upside. He plays every major bye round and his DPP adds extra value during the bye period. With Kiraz out for 4-6 weeks, Garrick shapes up as one of the best replacements.
Josh Curran - MID/EDG ($618k)
The Bulldogs’ forward pack has been heavily depleted and Curran has returned from suspension at the perfect time. With King ruled out during the Origin period, the Dogs need someone to step up in the middle and Curran looks set to be that man. Sam Hughes is another welcome return for the Dogs, but we expect his minutes to be limited and closely managed as it’s his first game back from a long injury lay off. Curran is well positioned to take on increased responsibility over the next few rounds making him a strong short-term choice. However, there is risk. There’s a lot of moving parts for the Dogs, King and Mann have both been selected for Origin 1, but there’s a chance 1 of them or both don’t get selected for future games. Sitili and Preston also will be back from suspension in Rd 15, as well as Suluka-Fifita in Rd 14. Curran’s minutes could take a hit when these players return. His value is in the major byes he covers, so we still like him as a buy during this period regardless of the minutes risk.
Isaiya Katoa - HLF ($746k)
Katoa has been exceptional this season, consistently delivering strong fantasy scores even without many attacking stats. With a shortage of quality HLFs available during the bye periods and with Cleary unlikely to feature much due to Origin, he becomes a solid option. He only misses round 13 and 18, and his BE is quite low in comparison to his average, so a high score this week will make him go up in price significantly.
Morgan Smithies - MID ($477k)
Smithies is actually our favourite MID this week. When Nicholson was fit, Hosking and Smithies were splitting 80 mins between them at lock. With Nicholson out, it has meant Hosking has moved to edge, with there now being no real minutes threat for Smithies at lock. Last week he scored 70 pts in 64 mins, and whilst we don’t necessarily expect 70 pts every week, 60-65 mins is where we project his minutes to be going forward. He has come down in price a lot due to lower minutes earlier in the year, and is now priced at 35. Going off last year, when playing 60+ mins he averaged 49.2. If you assume he will maintain that, he is nearly 15 pts underpriced. With a strong bye schedule also, there is a lot to like. The only negative for Smithies, is the fact that he plays for the Raiders, who are a team in which coaches have a lot of players from already. Our recommendation would be that if you have 3 or less Raiders you should consider Smithies, if you have 4 or more we wouldn’t advise adding another one, as it makes Rd 15 and Rd 19 too tricky to navigate.
Nat Butcher - MID/EDG ($619k)
Analysis available only in The Scout Report - Rd 12 (Premium) version.
Ones to Watch
No OTW's this week. Maybe Connelly Lemuelu but thats about it.
Holds
Naufahu Whyte - MID/EDG ($593k)
Whyte has picked up a knee injury, and is targeting a RD 15 return, which is timely as it's the 2nd major bye round. He’ll only miss R12 and R13 essentially, as Roosters have a bye already in R14. Still a very good option, playing in 2 major byes and 2 minor byes from R15 onwards. The state of the Roosters team this week is good signs for what his minutes may look like also in those bye rounds.
Max King - MID ($701k)
King has been selected for the NSW side, which is frustrating for owners as he was ticking along really nicely, and his bye coverage is very good. Despite this, if you look at the NSW side, he is definitely the most expendable - he is only basically playing because Jurbo and Jacob Saifiti got injured. If he misses out on selection in Game 2, he becomes a great option again. At least see how he does in Origin first, and then re-evaluate. If he gets selected for Game 2 you can sell then, but wouldn’t be rushing him out just yet.
Jaxon Purdue - CTR ($532k)
Analysis available only in The Scout Report - Rd 12 (Premium) version.
Jeremiah Nanai - EDG ($560k)
Similar story to Purdue, had a down game but we wouldn’t be panicking. Still is underpriced and a useful option at EDG going forward.
Sells
Jacob Kiraz - CTR/WFB ($720k)
Kiraz is out for 4-6 weeks with a calf injury.
Dylan Egan - EDG ($587k)
Egan is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Jacob Saifiti - MID ($446k)
Saifiti is out for 3-4 weeks with a calf injury. If it was definitely 3 weeks could maybe hold, but his value was in the fact that he played 2 major byes - he now might not play any.
Robert Toia - CTR ($543k)
Analysis available only in The Scout Report - Rd 12 (Premium) version.
Lachlan Hubner - MID ($425k)
Hubner has peaked in price and is now going backwards, sell before he loses all his gains.
Captaincy:
Erin Clark
Probably the safest pick this week, Clark has been pumping out massive numbers, and that looks set to continue with JFH and Barnett both out.
Lindsay Smith
If you’re one of the 2% that own Lindsay Smith, he is our favourite captaincy option this week. With the composition of the Panthers pack, all signs are pointing to a 80 min, Yeo-like performance. Smith is an absolute work horse and a base stat beast, he could honestly be looking at a 70 pointer here.
Herbie Farnworth
Matched up against Blake Taaffe this week, Farnworth could be in for a big one. Don’t usually recommend captaining Centres, but Farnworth is an exception, he has been so consistent, and is constantly getting involved. He has scored a try in his last 5 games, and up against Taaffe we expect that trend to continue.
Joseph Tapine
Another fairly safe pick, Tapine has been very consistent, and is averaging 61.6 for the season. Always has that upside of attacking stats also, having scored 2 tries and gotten 2 assists so far this year already. Up against a Wahs pack without JFH and Barnett is also very appealing.
Jamal Fogarty
Again, another super safe pick. Fogarty’s ceiling isn’t really that high, rarely going boom. His floor is super high however, which is what you want from a captain.
Nicho Hynes
Up against a massively depleted Roosters forward pack, Hynes could thrive playing off the back of McInnes and AFB. Expecting Sharks to win comfortably here and score quite a lot of points, and as we know Hynes is usually involved, averaging over 1 try assist a game. Nice little POD option.
Dylan Lucas
Another POD option, Lucas comes up against a Panthers side which looks very different to usual. Back at edge rather than centre, he will be running at Henry or Riki, both of whom are traditionally middle forwards, which poses well for his prospects. Sensing a few linebreaks here. Has very strong base regardless, so even if he doesn’t get those attacking stats he will still score well.
Team Recaps
Alessandro
Rd 11 Score - 911
Overall Rank - 17697
Seemed like a pretty terrible week, but I actually somehow gained ranks, solely due to captaining Terrell May. Was thrown some major curveballs to my bye planning, with Kiraz and Egan getting injured, plus King making the NSW side. For this week I will be unable to field a full 13, only getting to 12 after making 3 trades. I’m considering doing something really risky, and selling one of my guns (not Cleary), though I am not sure yet. Regardless, Kiraz and Egan will be 2 of my sells. For my buys, I am focusing on players that will benefit me in all the bye rounds, not just this round. Mainly looking at Roosters, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles options for that reason, as they’re the teams with the best bye schedules. I already have some pre planned trades for next round also, bringing in Keaon and Aitken, like a lot of people will be. My main conundrum currently is that there’s all these players I want to pivot to for the upcoming byes, but not many players I’m actually willing to part ways with. That is one of the reasons why I’m considering selling one of my guns. We will see.
Serhan
Rd 11 Score: 916
Overall Rank: 18229
Thoughts:
Progressively going up the ranks, loving it for the reputation of our account. Did well this week with a score of 916, relatively well due to the amount of outs and kerfuffle that was going on with the round. Terrell May captaincy basically did save my round, I must admit. Lots to work on this week, with only 8 players available for round 12, barely. I’m likely to make 3 trades this week, with a lot of upside on the trades, especially in the middles. Keen to see how other people take on the challenge, and will cause a huge fluctuation in ranks. I’m looking to purchase Curran and Butcher. We’ll see how trade plans go, but that’s the current plan. Looking to sell Kiraz, Toia, Egan, Brimson, potentially Whyte too. Going to be a tough week.
ConDog
Rd 11 Score - 901
Overall Rank - 35650
Thoughts:
What a shocking week for fantasy overall. One that will go down as one of the worst in history due to the sheer amount of injuries, with my squad losing the likes of Egan, Whyte, Kiraz and more. It also didn’t help that Vaimauga had a HIA within 5 minutes, and a few more underperformers in Drinky, Purdue and Savala. If it weren’t for Captain May, I would have been well under 900 points. The worst part, though, was that a good chunk of my bye planning has gone to waste thus far. While my trade-ins last week performed well, the injuries to Kiraz and Whyte, as well as King surprisingly making Origin, I have to make 3 trades this week to field a full squad, with Vaimauga as one of my players. Regarding trades, the squad needs two MIDs and a WFB. Teddy looks good again, so Kiraz to him is locked in. In terms of the MIDs, the remaining options look quite grim, but I have to work out who to bring in that will score well but also have longevity through the bye rounds. However, hopefully, this is the carnage needed for me to gain ranks over this tumultuous bye period.
Art Pap
Rd 11 Score - 931
Overall Rank - 19614
Thoughts:
Like the majority of people, their teams got saved by May and I am so thankful I captained him considering the round we had with all the injuries. Not only that, Origin too has thrown a spanner in the works and all the bye planning that was done has gone out the window. Kiraz and Egan are definite trade outs but I will be holding King and Whyte. Similar to Sandro, I may be trading out a gun but I am still undecided yet. If I make my 3 trades I will be able to field a full team but at the moment I may only make 2 trades and field 12. I definitely need a WFB and a MID that’ll play the majority of the bye rounds and I’m mainly looking at the Dogs and Roosters players. I have a few ideas planned out so check out the next few weeks to see how the team comes together!