Who'd have thought when the NFL dropped its schedule back in May that two December Bears-Packers games two Sundays apart would determine this year's NFC North winner? That's how you celebrate the NFL's oldest rivalry, and as much as I dislike Green Bay, I'd like to see these games matter this much for both teams every season. The Bears have won five straight entering Sunday's game, and just dominated the reigning Super Bowl champs in a Black Friday affair. The Packers have won their last three games.
The rivalry is intensified this year by all of the chirping on social media from fans of both teams as the first encounter of this season's home-and-home series takes place at Lambeau Field on Pearl Harbor Day. Imagine if the game were to taka place at Soldier Field given the historic significance of the day. Alas, the NFL's scheduling algorithm lacks that patriot chromosome.
The Bears are 9-3 while the Packers, who suffered a dreaded tie against the Cowboys earlier this season, enter the game with a record of 8-3-1. It will be 15-20 degrees in Green Bay on Sunday, and the team with the better running game will probably win what is likely to be a one-score affair. The winner gets sole possession of first place in the NFC North with four games to play.
The Packers need this one more than the Bears do. If Green Bay loses, they fall 1.5 games behind Chicago with a tougher remaining schedule. The Bears host the Browns (3-9) next week while the Packers travel to Denver to play the Broncos (10-2). The rematch event occurs at Soldier Field the following week and if the Bears are up 2.5 games they'll be well positioned well to take the division crown.
The offenses are similarly good: Jordan Love is the 10th-ranked passer in the NFL and Caleb Williams is No. 12. Their running games are equally good, though the Packers may have to play without Josh Jacobs. If Jacobs can't play Emanuel Wilson will get the bulk of the team's carries on Sunday.
D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangi give the Bears their best running tandem since Walter Payton and Matt Suhey. The Packers have a top-5 defense, one that Ben Johnson called the best Chicago will face this season. The Bears are ranked 27th in total defense and their offensive line will have its work cut out for them against Micah Parsons.
The Bears are averaging 29 points in their last five games while Green Bay has allowed just 15.2 points per game in that same span. If weather isn't a factor, then Williams and the Bears offense need to score at least 24 points to have any chance of beating the Packers. Can they do it? I've got the Bears winning 24-21 in a game that will be won on their final possession. It won't be pretty, but the again, it's the NFC North, and besides, the Bears haven't accrued many style points this season. They're six games above .500 with a +6 point differential.