Right, so flying into Tel Aviv, a Flydubai plane went into an unscheduled dive over Saudi Arabia. This was because the co-pilot had decided to attack his captain while in the air.
The plane reached Tabuk, the pilots looking like they had been through a tumble dryer; but somehow everyone walked away.
That much at least is what we know with certainty.
Nobody yet knows why the co-pilot decided to take part in a wrestling match at 30,000 feet. Was it some grudge? A nervous breakdown? Was he trying to hijack the plane, crash it? I could be far more flippant on this point, others have been, but I won’t be. All theories, nothing confirmed thusfar though
Of course, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t need to bother themselves with the details of the hows and whys and wherefores. They had elections to win and a war to flog and the timing of this incident for their fortunes, well, it’s nothing short of miraculous isn’t it?
So, is this a false flag operation then? Well again, we have no evidence one way or the other. There is no evidence it was a planned, contrived, staged operation, or something far more spontaneous.
The advantages of a false flag operation though are very much all present and correct. Everything is there for you to take a real case of danger, blame Iran without a shred of evidence, and use that fear for political profit. Then you can reap all the advantages of a false flag, without it ever being declared one.
And a certain diaper-wearing orange man-baby certainly didn’t hesitate.
Well, that’s that settled then. Everyone can go home. The Commander in Chief was right all along not to end the war, Iran are a bunch of savages, we need to go Tonto on them some more.
No, not really.
The President of the United States has heard some tidings.
Where had he got it? Who had told him? Was it an intelligence report? An Israeli memorandum, or did he just hear it on the golf course?
The world's most orange foghorn has shoehorned Iran into the event, those Midterms not seeing him retreat from a war he has obviously lost, seemingly to be an insane move given how unpopular the war has become, and yet here’s a perfect justification for everything he’s been saying and so timely at that!
There is an immense difference between proving that something dreadful happened and proving who did it. Trump and Netanyahu are way ahead of that though, because they desperately need to be, both facing elections as they are, both facing elections they face massive defeats in.
The initial conclusion of the Saudi inquiry, because Saudi Arabia are conducting it, so I’m sure nobody has any concerns about that, was that the co-pilot had assaulted the captain. No reference was made to any influence from outside the aircraft, to Iran, or to terrorism.
Flydubai said the reasons why remained subject to formal investigation.
Israeli security officials initially thought that the co-pilot had acted alone.
But now there are several rather large questions sitting underneath all of this.
Israeli authorities say the co-pilot is an Omani national. Oman does not have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, and Netanyahu claims foreign airlines have arrangements preventing pilots from countries without those relations from operating flights into Israel.
If that rule exists, why was this co-pilot ever on board?
Now, there is apparently a caveat here. Sources familiar with the Israel-UAE aviation agreement say it contains no such nationality restriction. So are they wrong or is Netanyahu? Functionally, Israel needs to produce the relevant condition and explain who was responsible for checking the crew manifest. That is something they could easily do right now, strange that they haven’t already, because we’re left wondering whether this is a genuine security rule that Flydubai somehow breached, or is it an internal understanding that was never enforced? Or has Netanyahu announced a loophole in an agreement that doesn’t contain the rule he says was bypassed?
Show us the paperwork. It really shouldn’t be difficult.
Then there is the alleged weapon.
Some accounts describe a folding knife. Others have suggested an emergency axe. The official Saudi statement hasn’t actually identified anything beyond an assault at this point, and investigators haven’t said whether the object passed through airport screening or was already available aboard the aircraft therefore.
If somebody carried a prohibited weapon through Dubai airport, that is a screening failure. If an item already aboard was used by a crew member, that is an insider-security problem. Either way it seems someone has questions to answer for that though, but as yet nothing confirmed.
The cockpit door isn’t quite the mystery some coverage has made it sound either. Reinforced doors installed after 9/11 are meant to prevent unauthorised entry from the cabin. They can still be released from inside though and passenger accounts and Israeli officials say the injured captain managed to trigger that release. Passengers and crew then entered, overpowered the co-pilot, and additional Flydubai pilots aboard the aircraft took over.
That is the reported sequence. It still needs a proper account from the captain, the airline and the investigators, because at the moment most of the detail is coming from passengers and Israeli officials rather than the authorities actually conducting the inquiry.
The same applies to the sudden jihadist label attached to the co-pilot. We have heard Netanyahu’s interpretation of the co-pilot’s background. We haven’t heard publicly from the co-pilot, the captain or Flydubai confirming that motive.
Saudi officials say both pilots were later transferred to Abu Dhabi with the Emirati security team. If any statement emerges from questioning, it needs to be tested against the flight recorders, witness accounts, employment history, communications and physical evidence. If we don’t see them, if we are left with the words of weasels if you will, we are left in the dark still. A confession doesn’t become reliable simply because a government announces it, particularly when we don’t know the circumstances in which it was obtained.
Case in point, if you listen to Benjamin Netanyahu on all of this, you would think he had just spent a day in the pilot’s brain with a flashlight.
That’s quite the psychological profile to whip up while the investigators are still very much investigating.
The prime minister described the man as suicidal and told the story of his cry, “Kill me”. Quite the claim given the ongoing investigation being conducted in two countries one of which is not his. Trump is no better, which gives the false flag game away.
That’s precisely the whole problem, as Netanyahu says.
Neiter Netanyahu nor Trump can yet say whether there was any connection with Iran.
This, for the time being, ought to have been the limit of the matter of Iran, until something more certain appeared; but instead, the uncertainty gets swept under the carpet, because this is useful.
Trump says Iran seems to be involved. Netanyahu says something about radicalisation. Then, with a straight face, he admits that he cannot actually tie the pilot to Iran.
Not only did their case leak out, but the courtroom itself was missing a ceiling, a floor, walls and even a roof.
Nevertheless, the point is that the Israeli prime minister has been able to grab the headlines while still leaving enough room to say later that it wasn’t him. He can’t really claim it was Iran, but he’d be glad if people suspected it.
Suspect indiscriminately, and see if anything sticks, then make haste before they ask what really happened.
The moment was so opportune that it was almost offensive.
Trump is steaming towards the mid-term elections in the United States, with the prospect of another war with Iran looming ahead of him, because he cannot accept he has lost it, porridge for brains combined with extreme narcissism means he just cannot tolerate taking that kind of hit-a situation he cannot just yell his way out of either.
War means more American arms, more American money, more American personnel. It means higher oil prices, military shortages and another foreign conflict for voters to remember when they decide whether the Trump presidency has done any good for them.
A new justification for war against Iran must be presented as defensive and perhaps he thinks this will do it for him. But he may still find it difficult to make Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire for more conflict with Iran into a reason for Americans to fight.
An Iranian plot against a passenger plane bound for Israel though? Well that might go a long way to convince some voters – maybe enough of them.
Netanyahu has his own election coming up later this month, and he never misses an opportunity to demonstrate the security threat that only he is ever the answer to. He will show the public, as they head to the polls, that he is the only one standing between them and the abyss.
So this attack aboard flight FZ1073 is an early Christmas present for both of them potentially. Trump gets a provocation; and Netanyahu can remind people that Israelis would be lost without him.
And yet still, the evidence itself, is far behind where they are running with this story.
A politician does not need to invent a crisis to milk it though does he
Flydubai’s Israel service has been suspended pending the investigation's outcome. A perfectly natural reaction. Israel has also stepped up its control of foreign pilots, implying the rules about hem that Netanyahu claimed perhaps weren’t that tight after all.
The precautions after a cockpit blow-up are fair enough; using them to fuel the Iranian bogeyman story again is another matter, particularly when the loudest mouth in the campaign admits that there’s still no connection yet. They’re tangible consequences of an accident, but without a connection, the consequences are still just consequences.
A brief piece of media literacy: separate what happened, who caused it, and what governments did afterwards. The news often confuses these three things so that the government response can seem like confirmation of the alleged act. Stricter security measures show that people are afraid, but do not necessarily prove that Iran was involved.
And, then Andy Burnham walked in.
The RAF Fairford affair is its own beast, but it comes into this story now as well, because we’re seeing Andy do what Starmer always did and jump to the tune that both Trump and Netanyahu are singing here too and it all looks just a bit too co-ordinated.
Among the vehicles near Fairford, and the homes of the suspects there were no explosives found at all, in fact all that has been found was some petrol. So it could be anything from theft to arson on the face of this, but I’m guess ingas much as anyone else is here having said that.
After arresting five people on this suspicion though, the police released them on bail. A sixth person, a dual British-Iranian national, was arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts however. So there’s a possible Iran link which covers what Burnham has also just said. But we don’t know in what respect he relates to this case and British terrorism laws have been weaponised so hard, that for all we know, he was operating a gang of terror grannies making pro-Palestine placards. Obviously that’s unlikely, but you can forgive people for making a bit of a snort of derision over this.
The government has still yet to demonstrate to the public what role Iran allegedly played here, other than through one guy’s parentage.
But Burnham seems to be running ahead of that too, all while pretending to be cautious.
Well, there’s the chef’s kiss, if you like your confirmation half-baked.
Now the government can say that it believes something.
Again, that’s not confirmation, but timed as it is, it’s done Trump and Netanyahu a solid favour ahead of their elections too – another case where ‘Iran must be stopped’ over.
Certainly, Burnham may have access to intelligence the public does not, I have to raise such caveats of course, and he may well have good reasons to take the situation seriously. But the government must then make public as much as it safely can of the evidence for its case: what sort of Iranian connection is suspected, and to what extent the conclusion rests on fact or inference. Defending national security may justify protecting sources, but it must not become a catch-all that protects the accusation itself from investigation. That works out beautifully for the government. They get to pin the blame on Iran without ever showing their work; anyone who objects gets the old “we know things you don’t” routine. If ministers want public support for their course of action, they must show a basis in facts.
Perhaps there is. There are secrets in the state.
Britain is a well-known example. They also make mistakes, distort intelligence, and occasionally turn a situation into a prank when a war is pushed on them.
Evidence is the surest foundation of trust though. We don’t earn trust by saying “we believe” until your tongue drops out.
But then Netanyahu weighed in on this too – he cannot help himself.
He then went on TV to declare that Israeli intelligence had warned the British government that an attack was imminent.
I would pay a large sum of money, if I had it, to read the fine print on that little disclaimer.
Did Netanyahu warn of an imminent Iranian conspiracy? Did he name names? Or did he merely send a memo to Burnham saying, “Hide your red diesel the bilkers are coming?”
Netanyahu’s statement ties perfectly in though, and Burnham has neither confirmed nor denied it as well. Israel allegedly warned Britain in secret; Britain goes public with its suspicions; Israel then claims that Britain’s announcement was in fact a warning which it did not give.
They waved “corroboration” about everywhere-no one needed to show a single scrap of proof.
The sixth arrest shows that the affair is not yet settled, that the case is very much ongoing. The theft at Fairford could lead to a criminal prosecution involving Iran, or as I suspect, it’ll be something incredibly mundane by comparison.
This is an important difference when the emerging political narrative is that Iran has attacked a British airfield and an Israel-bound passenger plane. That’s a real blockbuster with all the support of a cliffhanger in a soap opera.
But Netanyahu, of course, even after spilling his guts as much as he already has here, is not content to present the Flydubai affair as an isolated incident.
And there it is The whole of the West has been dragged into the group chat. We’re all under threat, you must all come and help us now. Shame on you for not joining the war before now.
But remember where all of this stemmed from.
Our story began with one co-pilot whose motives are still a secret. The next minute Netanyahu is painting all of this as an End of Days scenario.
A man’s despair has turned into a network of ideas. The network turns into Iran; Iran threatens every Western country, and when the threat is sufficiently large enough in his mind, Netanyahu’s can try to turn more war not being conducted in the name of Israel but in service to the world and Trump knows a good sales pitch when he hears one. Both of them can then go into their respective elections soapboxing the hell out of this.
Both want their allies to regard a new clash with Iran as inevitable.
“Trump said that Iran was behind it” becomes “Iran was involved in the flight.”
“Britain believes that Iran had a hand in it” is transformed into “Iran attacked RAF Fairford.”
Two cautious political statements, carefully and softly made, then reappearing in the next newsreel.
As soon as the calls for redress arose, it was announced to the public that the case had been closed. Did you not see that in the papers?
And that’s the crux of the matter.
The greater danger is not concealment, but self-observation.
The fault is placed on Iran; the affair can be blamed on Iran, thus giving Trump an opportunity for further military display, and Netanyahu basically the same; Burnham’s gang has a chance to tag along, perhaps under the guise of a secret intelligence service. and thus they can all maintain that they are simply responding to events.
And if the investigations should ultimately fail to detect an Iranian hand in the affair, then no similar political moment will ever undo the damage. Elections might be all out of the way by then though eh?
Then again, we are not expecting to see Trump coming back to the White House grounds to admit that what he thought he had heard was absolute nonsense.
Netanyahu won’t be calling Fox News to grovel for stoking suspicion. Neither are known for apologising when they screw up after all.
That is why finger-pointing, before evidence is in, is half the battle to be won and keeping stuff hidden under the guise of national security makes that very easy. Governments act on it. Airlines act on it. Militaries act on it.
By the time investigators get there, the fallout's repercussions are already set in stone.
The plane landed in Tabuk, and the crew and passengers survived. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will now determine why this happened and whether an outside agency was involved.
The co-pilot likely acted alone.
And that is the most concrete information we pretty much have.
Burnham has based his statement about Fairford on intelligence the public has not been permitted to examine. Burnham’s separate charge about the Fairford case is based on supposition.
The Flydubai flight may not have been a false flag operation, but Trump and Netanyahu are certainly determined to turn it into one. They didn’t have to stage the emergency. They just had to grab the story from the investigators before they landed, pin an Iranian flag on it, and hope that the evidence remains stuck in baggage claim under their respective elections are over.
For more on the ongoing attacks on Iran coming from all sides it seems, as Western leaders are determined to make sure the Middle East remains as ballsed up as possible do stick with the channel for more, such as this story right here.
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