Right, so as you are no doubt aware, there has been an increasingly alarming conflict between India and Pakistan over the last few weeks, a ceasefire now thankfully coming into effect, though, a shaky one it must be said, alleged violations of it having happened already, but like so many flashpoints, they didn’t happen spontaneously and there is historical lead up to it, in much the same way that Israel and Gaza didn’t happen on October 7th 2023, but going back to 1967 and even further to 1948. We have a similar scenario here too which I’ll go into, but that doesn’t take away from the fact a devastating terrorist attack struck the scenic town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 26 civilians, including 25 Hindu tourists and a local Muslim guide. The Resistance Front, the TRF, an offshoot of the UN-designated terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility, their reasoning based on those historic disagreements. It was an act of terror that reopened the festering wounds between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and kicked off a dangerous escalation of violence between two nuclear nations.
On top of that, the conflict that has followed has exposed numerous other underlying tensions, from the status of Kashmir to India's military alliance with Israel, Israeli munitions being used against Pakistan as India remain despite the Gaza genocide, Israel’s biggest defence buyer. With Israel the global pariah it is, can peace truly hold between India and Pakistan, if India are the sort of nation to still do business with such an entity therefore?
Right, so India and Pakistan with a undertone of Israeli involvement too, but lets take a step back a minute because as easy as it is to just wade in feet first to what has happened in the here and now, to understand the current crisis, you need to appreciate the broader historical and political context where it comes to India, Pakistan and the allegedly most militarised region on the planet that is Kashmir. The region of Jammu and Kashmir has been disputed since the partition of British India in 1947. India, Pakistan, and to some extent China, lay claim to different parts of this territory, as shown by this map, the pink bits being India administered, the yellow Pakistan and the green China, but all of it was basically semi-autonomous, acting as a buffer zone if you like, between the three nations where their borders all meet. I say was. You see, in August of 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government decided to revoke Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted Kashmir its autonomy, which had been in existence since 1954. The region was then split and placed under direct Indian federal control.
This move was met with condemnation both domestically and internationally and referring to the area as a buffer zone as I did a minute ago does the area a bit of a disservice. Where India has sought to de facto integrate Indian administered Kashmir into the Indian state directly, Pakistan supports autonomy for Kashmir and would like to see it become more independent. This is a mindset that aligns with Kashmiri separatists as well, who saw this act of revocation by Modi as a provocation as you might imagine. Meanwhile, in Kashmir, local leaders were arrested en masse, curfews were imposed, internet services were suspended, and tens of thousands of additional troops were deployed. The Indian government's actions were widely criticised as a crackdown on civil liberties and an attempt to change the demography of the Muslim-majority region by encouraging non-local settlement, Modi’s administration, him being Hindu incidentally, has been marked for growing anti Muslim sentiment and violence and this incident certainly didn’t help matters.
So this is the background leading up to last month where an attack on Hindu pilgrims visiting Baisaran Valley shocked the world not just for its brutality, but for its timing and implications. The attackers, dressed as security personnel, stopped tourist vehicles and selectively executed individuals based on their religion. A local Muslim tour guide, who tried to protect the pilgrims however was also killed. This tragic loss of life was a reminder of the volatile nature of the region and the capabilities of extremist groups operating within or across the Line of Control, the LoC, which is basically the de facto border between India and Pakistan through Kashmir, if I bring this map up again its basically the line between the pink bit and the yellow bit, its comparable to the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon as another for instance.
India promptly accused Pakistan of backing the TRF, a group widely viewed as merely a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba, that UN designated terrorist group in the region, Pakistani Salafists, so similar in their religious extremism to Al Jolani’s HTS which now run Syria, they’re also Salafists. The Pakistan government denied any involvement and instead have called for a neutral, international investigation into the attack, which is hardly the actions of a guilty party trying to hide evidence, just look at Israel when it comes to asking about an independent investigation into October 7th by comparison. Nevertheless, Indian authorities remained adamant in their assertions that Pakistan itself was culpable.
The fallout has been, as we’ve seen, swift and severe. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which was a landmark agreement governing water sharing between the two nations, threatening Pakistan’s agricultural economy. Diplomatic ties were further strained as India expelled Pakistani envoys and imposed trade restrictions. In retaliation, Pakistan shut its airspace to Indian flights and formally suspended the Simla Agreement, which had underpinned bilateral engagement since 1972, a literal peace treaty and then all hell broke loose.
Militarily, the situation escalated rapidly. The Indian government authorized "Operation Sindoor," a large-scale military offensive, missiles being fired into Pakistan across the LoC beginning on May 7th. Meanwhile, Pakistani forces retaliated, resulting in intense exchanges of fire. Notably, India granted its forces “complete operational freedom” in Kashmir, which was a move that alarmed international observers for the carte blanche it gave Indian troops in a region already fraught with human rights abuses, especially since India removed Kashmir’s special status.
One of the most alarming developments was the aerial dogfight observed on May 10th, which was reportedly the largest since World War II, saw somewhere in the region of 100 aircraft engaged from both sides. Though neither country officially confirmed the total losses, unverified reports suggest multiple downed aircraft and casualties.
During another conflict a couple days before, reports emerged that India had deployed a fleet of Israeli drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes along the LoC, the Pakistani military claiming it had shot down some 29 of the Israeli made Harop drones, at a cost to India in the region of $17.5 million, all part of the close military ties between India and Israel, India being Israel’s largest arms buyer. In 2024 alone, India accounted for over 40% of Israeli arms exports.
Yes 2024, very much during the genocide of Gaza then and that has drawn further intense criticism aimed at India given the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, where Israeli military operations have very much been labelled a genocide by multiple human rights organizations and again it brings Modi’s attitude towards Muslims into question once more as well. While much of the world has begun distancing itself from Israel, right now at a rate not previously seen as even Donald Trump is turning his back, this news about Israeli drones news being used against Pakistan, have thrust India’s relations towards Israel into the public eye again at a time it possibly couldn’t be more damaging.
Human rights advocates and political analysts have questioned the moral implications of India supporting a regime facing global censure for potential war crimes. The use of Israeli drones in operations against Pakistani forces and potentially even against civilians in Kashmir, again, investigation required versus such allegations, has compounded these concerns. India's alignment with Israel is being increasingly perceived as it should be, as deeply immoral and unethical.
After that massive dogfight though, a ceasefire came suddenly and unexpectedly. Trump announcing it so as to get the praise for it, but it wasn’t just US pressure involved, various Gulf states, including Oman and even Iran were apparently involved.
Despite the ceasefire, violations have been reported within hours. Shelling and sniper fire have been exchanged along the LoC, with both nations accusing the other of provocation. There’s very little trust here, and the terms of the ceasefire which are largely verbal really need tightening up to hold in my view.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s call for that independent international investigation into the Pahalgam attack has been met with silence from New Delhi. India maintains that it has incontrovertible proof of Pakistan's involvement and sees the investigation demand as a stalling tactic, which is something not dissimilar to Netanyahu’s vciews of an independent investigation into October 7th. Pakistan, on the other hand, argues that its sovereignty and credibility require an impartial assessment to prevent escalation based on misinformation. This really isn’t the verbage of a guilty party is it?
Of course those who suffer most are always those caught in the middle. This latest conflict over Kashmir has taken a serious toll. Reports from the region speak of displaced families, civilian casualties, and destruction of infrastructure. In Pakistani-administered Kashmir, Indian shelling killed at least 13 civilians and injured 50, as per local officials.
The economic consequences have also been substantial. Amid fears of a protracted conflict, global markets reacted with volatility. Despite this, the IMF approved a $750 million loan to Pakistan, triggering criticism from Indian policymakers who accused the fund of indirectly supporting a country alleged to harbour terrorists, though it was applied for to help offset the damage of climate change of which Pakistan is particularly vulnerable and boosting its economy which is not doing so well.
Beyond South Asia, this standoff has wider global ramifications if it were to flare up again. Any further escalation risks drawing in other regional powers, including China and Iran, both of which have interests in Pakistan, China itself in Kashmir as well, both nations sharing borders with Pakistan. Additionally, Israel’s increasing involvement through arms deals complicates the equation as well, linking South Asia’s conflict with the broader instability in the Middle East.
The Pahalgam terror attack was a despicable act that deserves universal condemnation, but also requires not war but investigation to ascertain the truth, peace may frankly depend on that, especially if it turns out this was a terror attack that has instigated such widespread volatility. Responding to terrorism through military strikes and regional authoritarianism, as seen in India’s handling of Kashmir, only drives and deepens cycles of violence and that’s a political mess of Modi’s making.
Meanwhile, speaking of nuclear powers, or not as the case may be, Israel’s lies about Iran and its nuclear threat recently collapsed quite hilariously on live TV, the spokesperson doing the flailing is apparently in the mix to become the UK’s next Israeli ambassador too! Get all the details of that mess in this video recommendation here as your suggested next watch. Please do also hit like, share and subscribe if you haven’t done so already, so as to ensure you don’t miss out on all new daily content as well as supporting the channel at the same time which is very much appreciated, holding power to account for ordinary working class people and I will hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks.