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Most analysts called March 2026's dollar rally a "risk-off safe-haven move." That's the wrong answer. The dollar didn't strengthen because investors trusted it more. It strengthened because $19.9 billion in speculative shorts — the most crowded FX trade in two years — had nowhere to go when the Middle East conflict hit. Liquidity vanished. Stops triggered. CTAs reversed. Q1 settlement demand a...
The March 2026 Dollar Short Squeeze
Mar 21, 2026
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed February 28, 2026, in coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes (unconfirmed). The Interim Leadership Council formed March 1—President Pezeshkian (reformist), Judiciary Chief Ejei (hardliner), cleric Arafi (ceremonial)—creates deadlocked governance. The rial crashed 12% in 48 hours to 1,850,000:1, government workers earn $84/month (28% of poverty line), and...
Iran After Khamenei: Military Oligarchy, Fragmentation, or Reform?
Mar 03, 2026
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