Hey Everyone,
Let's first start with the calendar update: 4th September is a stock market holiday in US. So the first trading day for US stocks is Tuesday, 5th September.
The other calendar (historical) statistical data you need to be aware of is that the month of September has on average been the worst performing month in a year! So caution is warranted when considering new buys based on this statistics. The breadth of the market participation could be better and if Russell 2000 index moves beyond $2000 then that would be encourage. So far it is stuck between $1750 & $2000.
In my earlier post, I shared couple of Stage Analysis based stocks I bought ($LW & $ROKU), and Earnings gap up play ($OKTA).
I have a 5 stocks watchlist for the week ahead and beyond. Two of them, fulfills my analysis of Stage 2 uptrend. If the market gains further strength, they are likely to move up further. If my analysis works out, then it could results in 40-50% gains in these stocks over the next few months. As usual, I will use the 50d EMA or 30wk MA as stop loss to prevent big losses if my analysis is wrong or if the timing is wrong.
See below for my watchlist stocks:
(1) $CPNG - Coupang
This is a screen shot of my Deepvue charting software. The top panel shows Stage Analysis stages as colour coded region. In short, shades of Green is Stage 2.
The price chart shows weekly chart with the 8, 21, 50 EMAs. The bottom panel is the volume panel, different colour to signify higher or lower relative volume. Of note: Fluroscent green is high relative volume, and orange is low relative volume.
(2) $ROKU - see earlier post <here> for details and chart.
Both $ROKU and $CPNG has some resistance at around 15-20%. If they break out of it 35-50% gain is likely.
The other stocks on my watch list include:
(3) $PDD:
There has been some positive news from Chinese governmental initiative to keep their economy going. This stock has jumped nearly 30% in a week after ther earnings, so it is a bit extended in the short term. I will be looking for the price action to cool off slightly and keep an eye on better risk : reward entry point based on daily chart. The above shows its weekly performance. Note the high relative volume last week in this chart. This signifies heavy buying pressure from institutions. This generally means big money institutions are keen to accummulate.
(4) $CVNA - Carvana
This was in stage 2 uptrend from around $13 onwards. Now at $50. I have recently bought it last week as it pulled back slightly and held the 8wk EMA after reclaiming the 50wk EMA. The pullback was on low relative volume (orange volume bar). If this keeps going, it could test much higher prices - $75 or close of $100 in due course. But if it fails, I would be quick to get out of it and not risk too much of my capital in this.
(5) $AMR
Now, what shall I say for this stock! All I can say is that I wish I had noticed it much earlier. At the bottom of Covid crash, it traded below $2. Now it is at $213.28!
Having gained over 100 times the lowest price in 2020, the stock consolidated with sideways movement since June 2022. The green line depicts the all time high price that hasn't been retested for at least the subsequent 3 months. This concept was introduced by Prof. Eric Wish (X handle: @wishingwealth). The GLB (Green Line Break) is a significant price level to take note off. If the price closes below the Green line, that signifies failing momentum and he suggests exiting the trade.
For $AMR the green line is at $186.98. The top panel, in addition to showing that the stock is in Stage 2 uptrend also depicts the RS (Relative Strength) line is at ATH (all time high) while the price is at ATH too - Green dot. These are the bullish signals that made up add this stock to my watchlist despite its tremendous run already in the last 3 years. If I am buying this, due to it being about 15% above the potential stop loss level, I will lower my position size to keep the risk low.
These are the top 5 watchlist stock I have for the next week.
Feel free to share your watchlist names in the comments and share your analysis of these stocks too. Do you agree with my analysis or have a differing view? Please comment. I would like to hear your thoughts.
Happy Learning and Successful Investing.
Disclaimer: This material is intended for educational purposes only, and is not recommendations to buy or sell any financial instruments or products. Do your own due diligence and make your own decision. The value of your investments can rise as well as fall. Capital is at risk when investing in any financial products. You could get back less than you invested. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.