Yesterday's alleged major push by Ukraine seems to have been greatly exaggerated by Russian sources. Combat is fierce west of Verbove still, with Ukrainian and Russian troops battling for control over the same stretch of fields, frequently swapping control over particular points. Ukraine is inching closer to Novoprokopivka, with fighting taking place at the northern and eastern edges of the village now. After Ukrainian infantry made it into the town the other day, there hasn't been any additional confirmation of Ukrainian troops in Novoprokopivka. I expect that that was merely a reconnaissance team, and as such, any surviving Members likely fled. However, there are some unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are now back in the northern part of Novoprokopivka.
Several hundred Wagner Group fighters have reportedly been redeployed back into Ukraine, around the Bakhmut area. They will help to plug the holes in Russia's defenses after recent Ukrainian advances. It also helps Russia that they are quite familiar with this part of the battlefield. The fact that it is only a few hundred reported to be active at this point in time leads me to believe that the Kremlin is conducting thorough vetting of those being sent back into Ukraine, as they want to avoid a repeat mutiny attempt.
Russia seems to be paying extra attention to supply lines today, as they targeted Ukrainians bridges across the Oskil river. But much more importantly, Russia has started construction on a new rail line which will run along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and further from the front. This would in turn reduces the strategic importance of cities such as Tokmak if it were to be completed. Some Ukrainian artillery could certainly still attack the future railroad, but doing enough damage to permanently sever the link is difficult, particularly as Ukraine and its allies face artillery shell shortages. It wouldn't be ideal for Russia, but they could likely run supply trains through with some consistency, even if Tokmak were to be under Ukrainians control. Ukraine's efforts to push to the coast now have a rather important time limit to beat.
Russia has published another video of Admiral Sokolov in an attempt to prove that he is alive. The video is far more convincing; he it up and about, uninjured, and talking. There are no awkward cuts with people losing glasses and papers. However, it is undated, and the two key events Sokolov references both took place prior to the Storm Shadow strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters. As a result, I am still far from convinced that Sokolov is alive and in good health. Ukraine has not commented any further on the matter. With Russia now failing, twice, to provide a proof of life video without serious questions about it, I am increasingly of the opinion that Sokolov was either severely wounded or killed.
Ukraine sent a letter to the G7, complaining of western components being used in drones that are hitting Ukraine (a well known problem that the west has failed to really control), and requested assistance to help deal with the drones. None of this was new; but the explosive bit was a request from Ukraine for long range missiles and permission to strike drone manufacturing sites in Russia, Iran, and Syria. It would represent an absolutely massive increase in the geographic scope of the conflict, and would directly rope in the regional power of Iran. Due to the ongoing civil war in Syria, it would threaten to drag in countries such as Turkey, the United States, and Israel. Ukraine is already reported to have conducted actions in Sudan, and has previously mulled operations in Syria, but decided against it at the time.
The Il-76 crash in Mali had more footage emerge today, showing the plane dramatically overshooting the runway, and then falling down a hill before bursting into flames. It's not clear why the plane overshot the runway by so much, but it did appear that the pilots were trying to prevent the crash, meaning. Pilot error and sabotage are both possible explanations, but it is now abundantly clear that the plane wasn't shot down, nor was anything on board detonated. If it was an act of sabotage against the Wagner Group, no one has claimed responsibility yet.
Germany is continuing to stall on the transfer of long range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The United Kingdom has shared intelligence and procedures with Germany as to how Ukraine has used their Storm Shadow missiles, which are vaguely comparable weapons. Even as Germany is delaying things, Ukraine will be getting additional missiles from Bulgaria. However, there's a catch. These S-300 air defense missiles were deemed to be unsuitable by Bulgaria for military purposes, and will need to be repaired. According to Bulgarian authorities, they do not have the means of patching the missiles up, but Ukraine does. This is part of a growing pattern in recent weeks where aid to Ukraine has been found to have some problems before it ever reaches the country; this time, it's just upfront. It suggests that many of Ukraine's allies are scraping the bottom of the barrel as production of military hardware has been slow to ramp up.