Gabriel B
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Ukraine - September 22, 2023

Ukraine - September 22, 2023

Sep 23, 2023

MaxxPro MRAPs have also joined the fight near Verbove.  They're a bit different than the other vehicles that Ukraine has sent to the area, in that they specialize in being mine resistant, but they have some disadvantages as a trade off.  With their inclusion, Ukraine is steadily increasing the types of vehicles deployed to the Verbove breach, but they are still clearly sticking with their pattern of light vehicles.  Ukrainian armor is also still taking heavy losses in the area.  On the other side of the Robotyne bulge, Ukraine has pounded Russian positions west of Robotyne.  In one rather vivid example, they managed to set a Russian tank in fire, which then purposefully drove into a river.  Ukraine has notably been ramping up operations here, in the direction of Kopani.  I don't think Ukraine is planning a major push here, but instead is aiming to prevent a Russian push which would threaten to trap Ukrainian troops in Robotyne.  And to the south, Ukrainian troops are edging closer to Novoprokopivka from the north and the northwest.  Ukrainian troops are right up against the fortifications northeast of the town, and are reportedly less than a kilometer from the northern edge of the town.


Ukrainian troops have advanced further south of Bakhmut, establishing a bit of a buffer between Klishchiivka and Russian forces to the east.  Ukrainians troops are at multiple points contesting the railroad running through the area as well.  


A Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike on Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol has struck a significant blow to Russia's military command.  Numerous high value targets held an in-person meeting in the actual building, in an astonishing display of hubris as Ukraine has conducted several precision strikes in and around Sevastopol in recent days.  Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov has claimed that Lieutenant General Oleg Tsekov was severely wounded.  Also according to Budanov, Colonel General Alexander Romanchuk was severely wounded.  Romanchuk has been responsible for Russia's defense in Zaporizhzhia oblast.  Romanchuk is also the rector of the Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, located in Moscow.  Interestingly, Tsekov is a deputy head of the school.  This could just be coincidence, but it's also possible the meeting was about the education of new Russian recruits or something.  But perhaps most prominently, the status of Admiral Viktor Sokolov, who commands the Black Sea Fleet, is unknown.  There have been some reports that he was killed, but nothing has been confirmed.  Budanov himself said that Ukraine did not know if he was dead or not.  In addition, a number of other personnel were killed and wounded.  Depending on exactly who the other casualties were, how badly wounded Tsekov and Romanchuk are, and the status of Sokolov, the attack could possibly derail much of Russia's command structure for southern Ukraine.


A sizable explosion hit the Russian city of Kazan, very, very deep into Russia.  There's a decent chance it was caused by an industrial accident as a recording of the blast was geolocated to the industrial quarter of the city.  However, it's worth noting that the city hosts many important military industrial sites as well, such as a production plant for Iranian models of drones, as well as factories for parts of Russian warplanes.  It's extraordinarily deep into Russia but it certainly would make for a prime target for Ukraine, and they have been experimenting with new and longer ranged drones of late.  However, no confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes have made it anywhere close to that deep into Russia.


Russia has continued heavy strikes against Ukrainian cities.  Today, Kremenchuk, in Poltava oblast came under particularly strong fire.  Ukraine said civilian infrastructure was hit, and that a few dozen civilians were wounded.  Russia claims to have destroyed the bombers used to target Sevastopol at Kremenchuk.


Zelenskyy visited Canada today, resulting in a significant aid package from Canada, as well as additional Canadian sanctions being placed on Russia.  However, this was all overshadowed by reporting that the United States will, in fact, give Ukraine a very limited number of ATACMS in the future.  These would likely be used to more or less replace France's SCALP-EG missiles; France is reportedly planning on keeping the rest of their stockpile to themselves, as they are fairly limited in number.  The British Storm Shadow version are more numerous, and Britain is also less likely to be drawn into a major conflict at the moment (France maintains a high interest in western Africa which has witnessed several coups, and efforts by Russia to expand their footprint of late).  


Relations between Ukraine and Poland continue to be turbulent.  Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki demanded that Zelenskyy "never insult Poles again", all while at lower levels of governance, both countries are working hard to resolve their trade disputes.  In other EU news, optimistic signals are coming from the EU regarding Ukraine's hopes to commence official accession talks this autumn.


Another freighter loaded with Ukrainians grain has safely left a Ukrainian port.  While progress has been slow, Russia's embargo is slowly failing.  After brazenly searching one ship (which includes a risky helicopter landing) some time ago, Russia hasn't made any efforts to directly dissuade merchant ships from traversing the area.  And some of them are willing to take the risk that Russia might do something.  Ukrainian strikes against the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters, a command post, and its vessels directly have also pretty clearly tied down a lot of Russian naval assets in the region.

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