Gabriel B
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Ukraine - September 04, 2023

Ukraine - September 04, 2023

Sep 05, 2023

Ukrainian troops advanced at two key spots in Zaporizhzhia oblast today. The recent discovery of Russia's covered trenches near Robotyne seems to have been a bit of a turning point. Ukrainian troops pushed south of Robotyne, reaching and seizing part of the minor line of fortifications between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka. Most of the rest of the line is heavily contested now. Should Ukraine be able to take over the whole thing, the road will be open for Ukrainian troops to reach Novoprokopivka. In a sign that Ukraine is committing heavily to this attack and that the line was outright breached and not just merely infiltrated, Ukraine lost a Challenger 2 tank (the first loss of this kind) on this segment of the front. If Ukraine hadn't fully breached the line, they likely wouldn't have sent valuable western designed tanks that close to this part of the front.

Further to the east, Russia's defenses west of Verbove are struggling. Having moved into try past the first of the two parallel lines, Ukraine has arced south past the initial breach and reached the second line. Ukraine's presence in the area I'd argue is still closer to something akin to an infiltration than an outright breach, as there have been no Ukrainian vehicles recorded on the Russian side of these lines. However, the sustained and growing presence of Ukrainian infantry should be a major concern for Russia. If Russia cannot expel the Ukrainian troops, it's only a matter of time before Ukraine can dismantle both lines and enable vehicles to storm through. Ukrainian infantry has also pushed closer to Verbove itself, now only a few hundred meters from the edge of the town. Should Ukraine be able to capture Verbove (which will likely take weeks at the bare minimum), there is only one major belt of defenses to its southeast. Beyond that, the only major hindrance to a Ukrainian advance beyond oddly shaped supply lines would be a large hilly region.

A solitary Russian milblogger account has claimed that Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead north of Ozarianivka. There are a few different places where this alleged bridgehead could be. One of the most logical would be between Andriivka and Kurdyumivka, where Ukrainian troops have advanced in recent days, though using Ozarianivka as the point of reference would make less sense in this case. The alternative location is directly between Ozarianivka and Kurdyumivka, which would mean an entirely new crossing of the canal by Ukrainian forces. Such a bridgehead would be pretty confined and squeezed by Russian strongpoints, but it would also greatly apply pressure to Kurdyumivka, which is already coming under fire from two directions. As of now, there hasn't been any further clarification or evidence, but the general area is certainly one to keep an eye on as things have slowly tilted back in Ukraine's favor south of Bakhmut over the past few days.

The rest of the front has remained pretty static. There have been some minor positional changes in the Serebryanskyy forest west of Kreminna, as well as around Bilohorivka. However, none of these are particularly notable and are likely just part of the natural ebb and flow of Ukrainian and Russian forces flipping from the offensive to the defensive occasionally. Minor advances here and none in the Kupyansk area makes me think that Russia's last effort to take Kupyansk has fully faltered. Ideally, Ukraine can reclaim some of their lost territories here to fully secure Kupyansk again, but I doubt that this is a priority for them as they are currently heavily committing to Zaporizhzhia oblast and secondarily to the Bakhmut and Dnipro river fronts.

Early in the morning, a large number of Russian drones targeted Odesa oblast. Ukraine claimed a drone fell in Romanian (and thus, EU and NATO) territory. Romania denied that any drones fell in their territory; Ukraine called the denial "pointless". A photo emerged seeming to show a fire from the Romanian side of the border, though the lack of accompanying footage of any photographs remotely close to the fire make it impossible to know if it was caused by a drone or some other cause.

A photograph of Surovikin was aired today, showing him in civilian clothes. Presuming that the photo was recent, it acts as both proof of life but also suggests that he may have been entirely removed from all of his military postings. The photograph was fairly low quality and there isn't much to infer from it, though there is a fence visible in part of it. It's impossible to tell if the entire area he is in is fenced off or not, but it is a piece of evidence which possibly points to him being under house arrest.

Erdogan visited Putin in Sochi, Russia and gave off optimistic signals about a Russian return to the Black Sea grain deal in the future. Public statements from Erdogan and reality on the subject have diverged greatly in the past (likely due to last minute Russian politicking), but so far Russian statements have been fairly agreeable. However, the overall Russian position seems fairly unchanged, in that they want sanctions lifted on their agricultural and fertilizer exports in exchange for rejoining the deal. Ukrainian officials have floated the idea of a talk between the Turkish and Ukrainian governments in the future in order to discuss in detail Russia's position.

Separately, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is expected to make a rare trip abroad by visiting with Putin in the far eastern Russian city of Vladivostok. They will reportedly discuss areas of military cooperation, including potential further North Korean supplies making their way to Russia. North Korea is widely assumed to have supplied Russia in the past, but has denied doing so. Their role may become more transparent after this upcoming meeting.

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