Gabriel B
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Ukraine (and Russia) - June 23, 2023

Ukraine (and Russia) - June 23, 2023

Jun 24, 2023

The (metaphorical) dam broke today, as tensions erupted between the Russian Ministry of Defense and PMC Wagner. In response to an alleged missile strike from the Russian military base against a PMC Wagner base in Ukraine (the Kremlin and some observers called the video staged), Prigozhin declared his intent to overthrow the leadership of the Russian military, while leaving other institutions intact, including Putin's leadership over Russia. Many of Prigozhin's statements were reportedly made in advance, and many PMC Wagner fighters acknowledged that they had either said goodbyes to their loved ones or advised them to watch the news over the past day. While the video of the alleged missile strike may or may not have been staged, it's pretty clear that Prigozhin was planning his putsch for at least a little while. He called on Russia's citizens to either stay at home or to join him, and asked Russia's military to either stand aside or to join him as well with ousting Shoigu, Gerasimov, and other top Russian generals who he has blamed for ammunition shortages, battlefield failures, and for favoring the Russian military over PMC Wagner and other PMCs. Prigozhin claimed that Russian border guards stood aside and let a massive PMC Wagner convoy cross from Donetsk oblast into Rostov oblast despite Russia ordering the border between the two closed. Prigozhin has since claimed that Russian pilots have stood down, refusing to fire on PMC Wagner convoys as allegedly ordered. Separately, Russia was hit by a series of minor cyber attacks. A tiny new station in Moscow was hijacked and started to broadcast Prigozhin's statements, while a radio station was hijacked and started playing "Swan Lake". Students of Russian history should be well acquainted with Swan Lake, as it has been traditionally broadcast on all Russian media channels during changes of power.

Russia's response was almost immediate, with Russia throwing the book at Prigozhin through every possible legal avenue; he now faces decades in prison should he fail (assuming he isn't killed). Many major highways through southwestern Russia have had roadblocks installed, and Russia activated their "Krepost" (fortress) defensive plan. Russian military vehicles have been spotted roaming around several cities, including Moscow. The Kremlin has been locked down, and the Red Square has been closed to the public. Russian helicopters have reportedly been active over the city of Rostov-on-Don, ferrying Russian troops from elsewhere. After some Russian milbloggers discussed the situation and labeled Prigozhin's activities as a coup attempt, Russian censors went to work. The ability to access news through sites such as google has plummeted in Russia, and they have banned the mentioning of Prigozhin or the sharing of his posts on many sites, such as the popular VK social media service. Putin has been relatively scarce, instead leaving it up to his top officials and generals to make statements instead.

As the morning of the 24th has started, PMC Wagner seems to be in secure control over Rostov-on-Don. A German journalist asked some roaming soldiers who they belonged to; the answer was PMC Wagner. I gelocated some footage of their troops to the airport, located on the eastern side of the city. They were unopposed. And with that, Russia may have, remarkably, net lost a provincial capital since the start of their full scale invasion of Ukraine. In a further sign that Rostov-on-Don has fallen out of federal control, Rostov's governor has asked that citizens avoid traveling to the city.

It's worth noting that Prigozhin has confirmed that he has had contacts with Ukrainian intelligence operatives in the past. Thus far, PMC Wagner operations seem to be limited to Voronezh and Rostov oblasts; the two oblasts bordering Ukraine that they have not been able to directly reach. This certainly implies some sort of coordination, or at least tacit understanding between Prigozhin and Ukraine. However, Ukrainian proxies operating intermittently in Russia (namely, the RDK and LSR) have disavowed PMC Wagner, vowing to fight both PMC Wagner and Russia itself. For his part, Prigozhin has stated he will return to Ukraine once his quest to overthrow the Kremlin has come to a conclusion.

There is an immense amount of chaos in Russia, and it's still very early; and most of this is technically taking place on June 24th, and this is (technically) my June 23rd post. I will be covering this more tomorrow.

In terms of battlefield developments within Ukraine, Russia has established a pontoon bridge to replace the Chonhar bridges. The two bridges are now estimates to take at least two weeks to fully repair. Ukraine has yet to target the pontoon bridge, suggesting that the attack on the bridges may have been a one off.

Combat has heated up again in the Zaporizhzhia front; Ukraine has advanced towards Robotyne, and are now a field away from reaching the perimeter of the town. Ukraine still has a ways to go before they reach Russia's main first defensive line, but progress will be easier once they can secure settlements in the area. South of Velyka Novosilka, Ukraine has been pushing away from the river, threatening to cut off the village of Rivnopil. It also gives Ukraine the possibility of encircling Urozhaine and Staromaiorske in the future on the path towards Staromlynivka.

In Donetsk oblast, Russian lines continue to undergo a small collapse. If events here weren't massively overshadowed by Prigozhin's mutiny, they would be headline news. Ukraine managed to actually surpass the 2014-2022 line of contact slightly to the north of Marinka, advancing towards the city of Donetsk. Had Prigozhin not mutinied, I would have been confident that Russia would have held Donetsk. But with Russia bringing home troops and Rosgvardia (military police, who have frequently been deployed to Ukraine) to deal with rampaging mercenaries... I'm less sure now.

Russia's Kreminna-Kupyansk offensive seems to have completely wilted. It was already stalling (much like Ukraine's), but with current events, Russia will be unable to sustain it. Particularly with Rostov-on-Don having fallen and PMC Wagner troops well on their way to the provincial capital of Voronezh, Russian supply lines are in absolute shambles for the time being; if Russia cannot get a grip on the situation, many of their troops may, in effect, be cut off. If Ukraine can deal death blows to the Crimean bridges (both Chonhar and Kerch Strait), have the RDK and LSR cut off Russian supply lines in Belgorod oblast, and if PMC Wagner secures both Rostov-on-Don, Russia's entire invasion force in Ukraine will in effect be trapped. Their only way out will be by air or by boat. While this is only a possibility, it is nevertheless plausible given the current information we have on the situation in Russia. If PMC Wagner can sustain their current operations, Russia is on the verge of arguably the largest military disaster Europe has seen since World War 2. This is, of course, a huge if. In the meantime, Ukrainian officials have openly gloated about the current situation, and have said that they will watch it unfold. Belarus' most recent government in exile has likewise said the same; and Lukashenko left Minsk at midnight for an unknown destination.

In miscellaneous news, the EU laid out a path for Ukraine to meet all seven requirements tj start accession talks by October. Ukraine is confident that they can make the necessary changes, though they still have plenty of work to do on several points. The largest is working on minority rights. Rule of law, while not an official prerequisite to starting accession negotiations, is also a key point of concern. Zelenskyy today said that presidential elections will not be held as long as the war continues. Which, according to Ukraine's martial law, is actually Zelenskyy following the law. However, as with any democracy, the threat of backsliding is ever present.

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