The region around Krynky is still heavily contested with Ukrainian drones and artillery pounding Russian troops nearby. Ukrainian forces are also attempting to widen their bridgehead by pushing west towards Kozachi Laheri. If Ukraine can spread their bridgehead to Kozachi Laheri, they will start to have a sizable somewhat protected space where they can start to ferry over significant amounts of troops and heavy equipment, necessary for carving out a more defendable lodgement and a future base of operations deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson oblast. Ukraine is also expanding the zone of heavy strikes on Russian positions further along the Dnipro river, with regular stone attacks now hitting the roads leading to Nova Kakhovka as well.
The most intense fighting currently continues to be around Avdiivka. Russia has fully taken the high ground north of the city, but Ukrainian drones and artillery are pounding the site, which has led to many Russian casualties. Russia is trying to advance in the westward direction north of here, through some fields. It has turned into yet another killing ground for Russian armor, as Ukraine has demolished a number of Russian vehicles at this part of the front. South of Avdiivka, Russia is still pushing hard to close the distance between the city of Donetsk and Avdiivka, but Ukrainian troops are doing a good job of holding the line here for now. Crucially, the main resupply road for Avdiivka remains open, and will continue to be open unless if Russia can capture the well fortified industrial region next to the heights that they have recently captured.
Fallout from negative reporting on Ukrainian progress both on and off the battlefield has continued for another day, as Zelenskyy's former advisor and likely presidential challenger for the next elections tore into Zelenskyy publicly on X (Twitter). Arestovych is not known for keeping his thoughts to himself (this is part of why he was fired by the Zelenskyy administration), but his voice is the loudest of many who are grumbling about the slow progress on the battlefield. Especially ahead of a long winter and western attention very obviously being pulled away from Ukraine, there seems to be a palpable deflation in morale.
Even as there has been a lot of focus on Ukrainian casualties of late, quietly Russia is showing signs of strain as well. Besides for the frequenct operational pauses at fronts such as at Kupyansk and the vast quantities of footage showing heavy casualties at Avdiivka, Ukraine has claimed that all Russian troops have now left Belarus, which effectively removes the risk of a second invasion by way of Belarus. While I am going to treat anything coming straight from the Ukrainian or Russian government with a healthy dose of scepticism, Russian fearmongering regarding Belarus has notably trended downwards of late. There haven't been major shoes if militarily exercises along the Ukrainian border of late, for instance, and the border tensions with Poland have ticked down ever so slightly the past couple of weeks. Lukashenko even recently expressed some concern about the direction of the war, floating the idea of a ceasefire after acknowledging that both Russia and Ukraine are facing significant difficulties. Put together, a less bold Belarus certainly suggests that there are not as many Russian troops left there to protect Lukashenko's regime.
The United Nations has determined that all 59 people killed on a strike on the tiny village of Hroza a few weeks ago were civilians. The United Nations also determined that Russia was likely behind the attack, which killed roughly a fifth of the village's population with a single strike.
An internal audit of some units of the Ukrainian military found a relatively minor discrepancy, with dozens of units collectively receiving around $3.4 million USD more than they were entitled to. The additional payments were made to individual soldiers who were not supposed to receive certain types of bonus pay, as they had yet to see combat. Commanders of the units were blamed for taking a too loose interpretation of the definition of combat. For instance, a unit specializing in pontoon bridges based in Kyiv received additional payments after Russian troops retreated from Kyiv. Despite the city coming under frequent drone and missile attack, its status as an official combat zone was removed when Russian infantry fled. All things considered, I think it is likely a good sign that the latest financial scandal to hit Ukraine's military is so small; I take it as a sign that perhaps, most of the bigger incidents of corruption have either been detected or have been stopped out of fear of discovery.
The United States has joined France with the detention of a handful of Russian citizens. The United States has arrested three Russian citizens holding dual citizenship (two with Canadian citizenship, one was a citizen of Tajikistan) in New York City. The trio have been accused of helping to organize a significant sanctions evasion scheme for Russia. As Russia has arbitrarily detained American journalists in the past, a future deal where they are swapped may end up happening.
Relations between Russia and Moldova continue to worsen, with Moldova now refusing to accredit Russian election monitors for local Moldovan elections. Even putting aside the issue of Transnistria, Moldova has other restive enclaves that Russia has amplified grievances of in the past, in particular Gagauzia. Russia has filed a complaint with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Ukraine has been pushing to get Russia expelled from the OSCE for a while now, albeit without much success.
The conflict in the Middle East has spread to yet another country today, as at least one Houthi missile missed, instead striking Jordan. Jordan recently requested additional military hardware from the United States, particularly air defenses so that they could adequately protect themselves from this exact situation. Egypt also ran into the same issue, and the country is already undergoing a massive modernization program of their already decent air defenses. With missiles flying over Saudi Arabia and then only shooting down a handful, the Saudis may feel compelled to make a show of acquiring additional air defenses as well. All of this is to say is that air defenses are likely to be in extremely high demand, when Ukraine arguably needs them the most. Russia is already intensifying their campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, striking several parts of Ukraine's energy grid just today.