Gabriel B
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Ukraine - October 24, 2023

Ukraine - October 24, 2023

Oct 25, 2023

The Dnipro front is an interesting one, as the river isn't truly controllable, and the islands make depriving the enemy of the ability to be move quite difficult. Taking advantage of the situation, Russia has punched back, launching a reconnaissance and sabotage group across the river northeast of Korsunka, which itself is east of Krynky. The party was detected on an island which is broadly under Ukrainian control, and was eliminated. Ukraine is still holding onto parts of Krynky, though there have been no recent reports of fighting by Pishchanivka; I think it is likely that Ukraine withdrew from their incursion here. The same applies to their most recent crossing, by Pidstepne. With Ukraine either withdrawing or being less on the attack at these other points, Krynky is the the probable point where Ukraine may make an attempt to create an enduring bridgehead. Ukraine will probably make the decision to hold it abandon Krynky over the next day or two, as Russia will be redirecting their forces from the other locations to Krynky.

Russia has seized important positions north of Avdiivka including, yet again, the key hill. However, Ukraine is hitting the area hard, and it's not a sure thing that Russia has been able to establish permanent positions in the region. With the heights once again at least partially under their control, Russia holds an imposing vantage point over Avdiivka. Ukraine is now carrying out evacuations in the city, a sign that they don't expect fighting to die down anytime soon. Avdiivka had few residents left due to its long standing status as a front line city, but some residents remained. Ukraine's current estimate is that around a thousand civilians still need to be evacuated.

Russia is also advancing further in the Bakhmut area, particularly west of the city. Russia has secured additional regions along the western perimeter of Bakhmut and close to Khromove. Combined with their push to the Berkhivka reservoir, Russia has made (for the normal rate of advances in the area) rapid gains. Ukraine is still pushing around Andriivka, but they are not moving rapidly enough to offset Russian advances in the north.

Germany has pledged a new, significant aid package for Ukraine. As usual, the emphasis is on air defenses. Unfortunately for Ukraine, much sought after Taurus missiles were not included. Ukraine today also declared that their use of ATACMS was better than they had even anticipated. Which seeing as their initial claim of damage done to the Berdyansk and Luhansk airbases was an extremely rare undercount coming from an official source, seems likely. Ukraine has also claimed that there has been a marked decrease in the number of helicopter attacks they have faced since their ATACMS strikes. Despite Ukraine talking to the ATACMS, Germany (or rather, the German Chancellor Scholz) has shown no signs of budging.

Reuters has reported that the European Commission is expected tomorrow to recommend that the EU officially signs off on commencing accession talks with Ukraine in December. Moldova is expected to be in a similar situation. There are still some reported concerns about Ukraine's progress on two of the seven prerequisites; fighting corruption, and improving minority rights. However, the European Commission has paid attention to the sustained and continuing improvements that Ukraine has made on both fronts. As for Georgia, the tea leaves are far less optimistic. Reuters report didn't rule out that accession talks might start for Georgia, but it wasn't optimistic either. The accession process to join the EU, even when exemptions are granted and the EU doesn't mandate the completion of all chapters before joining the bloc, is an extremely bureaucratic and drawn out process. Even if one ignores the war with Russia and even if all EU members fully endorse Ukraine joining the bloc and are generous with their exemptions and leeway, membership in the EU is likely still several years away for Ukraine at the minimum.

Hungary has immediately backtracked on their previous pledge that they wouldn't be the last country to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO. There is still time, but the opposition put forth a proposal to start the process, and the government shot it down. The ball has started rolling in Turkey, but there are potential roadblocks there as well.

Kazakhstan has been rewarded for their imposition of some sanctions on Russia. NATO has officially opened a liaison office in the country, an interesting move seeing as Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO. Meanwhile, a top EU official has stated that the EU will connect to Kazakhstan with a "broad strategic policy agenda"; a bunch of jargon, but a strong suggestion that ties between the EU and Kazakhstan will grow closer. This might take the form of Kazakhstan joining the EU's European Neighborhood Policy (ENP). A readout from the government of Kazakhstan noted "positive dynamics" at the highest levels between Kazakhstan and the EU. Among the issues discussed were regional and global security, a not so veiled reference to Russia. President Tokayev of Kazakhstan also recently met with China, where the latter's "Belt and Road Initiative" and Kazakhstan's role in it was discussed. Kazakhstan is clearly making an outreach to multiple powers that aren't Russia. Kazakhstan is not only the largest country that is a member of the Russian-led CIS and CSTO apart from Russia itself, but Kazakhstan and Russia also share a massive border. Kazakhstan's increasing drift from Russia threatens to significantly hamper Russia's future geopolitical goals.

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