Gabriel B
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Ukraine - October 23, 2023

Ukraine - October 23, 2023

Oct 24, 2023

Ukrainian forces have yet again crossed the Dnipro, this time between Pishchanivka and Kozachi Laheri, close to Pidstepne. With that in mind, it increasingly seems probable that Ukraine is trying to establish a permanent presence this time around. However, Ukraine has yet to fully secure any settlements on the eastern side of the Dnipro yet. Ukrainian forces still have a toehold in a part of Krynky, and are still active near Pishchanivka, which makes for three current locations where Ukrainian forces are active on the east bank of the river currently, excluding their other positions on the islands. Overall, I am still pessimistic about Ukraine's chances of securing a lasting lodgement with their current pushes, but this is by far the most serious threat Russia has faced along the Dnipro river in Kherson oblast so far.

Russia has pushed back towards Robotyne from the west, recapturing a few minor positions. They have also secured some areas to the southwest of Verbove. However, Ukraine is reported to have captured some positions by Kopani and northwest of Verbove. Even as the front here is a little dynamic now, the overall situation remains that of a stalemate.

Russia's massive offensive in Avdiivka continues, and they are slowly inching forward. However, they are still sustaining heavy armored losses. Increasingly, the battle is reminding me of Bakhmut, where Russian aligned troops were able to slowly advance, all while taking massive casualties. From a cold, hard numbers perspective, defending against these onslaughts is worthwhile for Ukraine on paper. However, the overall quality of the troops makes such an analysis a bit more murky. The high inclusion and loss rate of armored vehicles for Russia in Avdiivka makes it more worthwhile for Ukraine though.

Speaking of Bakhmut, Ukraine has expanded their area of control past the railroad by Andriivka. However, Russia has pushed back to the Berkhivka reservoir northwest of the city. Much as many other roses of the front, the situation around Bakhmut remains pretty stalemated. Unfortunately for Ukraine, their best opportunities to advance in the area are through open fields and plains, which are now turning to mud. Not that Ukraine's counterattack around Bakhmut has ever been a quick moving affair, but it is difficult to see Ukraine being able to reclaim much land here at all for the next several weeks.

Ukraine has moved to crack down on corruption yet again, with a new investigation looking into the illegal enrichment of military officials. A former head of Odesa's enlistment office is one of the most prominent individuals implicated. In a separate event, Spanish authorities arrested Spanish and Ukrainian nationals for smuggling Acythian artifacts out of Ukraine. The operation was a wide reaching one, with the countries of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and North Macedonia working with Spain and Ukraine on this case.

Hungary is continuing to block EU aid to Ukraine, citing a lack of assurances that Ukraine will fully and permanently remove the Hungarian OTP bank from their list of sanctioned entities. Ukraine dropped their sanctions last month, but Hungary is seeking a legal mechanism to make it permanent, out of fears that Ukraine will sanction the bank again once they receive additional aid from the EU. Hungarian leadership is certainly doubling down on their populist, anti-West stances, with Órban today comparing the EU to rule under the Soviet Union, on the anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution.

Even as funds for Ukraine in the United States are running low and Congress is still a mess, the United States is finding additional ways to indirectly assist Ukraine. Notably, they are moving to seize a yacht worth $300 million USD, belonging to Suleyman Kerimov, a Russian oligarch and senator with close ties to Putin and Kadyrov. There has been a slow drift towards using seized Russian assets to either indirectly (via taxation) or to directly fund Ukraine among Ukraine's backers. Even if the seizure of the yacht isn't used for such means, it is still a significant hit to a Putin ally.

With little fanfare, Erdogan has finally made good on a promise he made a long time ago, by signing the ratification papers for Sweden to join NATO. There are several further bureaucratic steps, all of which may be held up in order to delay ratification further, but the ball is rolling now. In the case if Finland, the remaining steps took around two and half weeks to complete; the main hurdle is getting through Turkish parliament to get through their bureaucracy, as Erdogan will have to either affirm or reject their ratification within fifteen days of it being completed. And of course, there remains Hungary's intransigence on the issue as well. However, Hungary has previously stated that they would not be the last country to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO. In addition to progressing with their bid to join NATO, Sweden is also currently mulling a deal with the United States which would allow access to select bases for American troops. While still fairly restrictive, it is a departure from Sweden's initial statements when they first were trying to join NATO. Increasingly, Russia is getting boxed in around the Baltic region.

There have been rumors once again that Putin is in poor health; namely, that he had a heart attack and had to be rescuscitated. Much as whenever these claims pop up, I am disinclined to believe them. Furthermore, there were no unusual movements reported around the Kremlin, or anything of the sort. This was almost certainly a disinformation campaign, though the timing was interesting; it came around at about the same time as reporting from the Washington Post that Ukraine was responsible for some high profile assassinations in Russia, such as the killing of Darya Dugina. Ukraine declined to either confirm or deny the reporting, simply stating that they would make their intelligence operations known after the conclusion of the war.

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