Gabriel B
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Ukraine - October 17, 2023

Ukraine - October 17, 2023

Oct 18, 2023

A major surprise arrived well before dawn in Ukraine as ATACMS rained down on two Russian airbases; one in Berdyansk, and one by Luhansk. After the strikes, Zelenskyy and American officials played coy, but clearly labeled remnants of the missiles were found, and then all parties involved announced that the United States had quietly transferred a small number of expired ATACMS to Ukraine. This particular variant has a shorter range but packs a heavy punch of cluster munitions; ideal for absolutely shredding an airbase for instance, but not ideal for knocking down a major structure like the Kerch Strait Bridge. The attack reportedly used eighteen missiles, of only a few thousand in existence. But the attack detonated at least one ammunition depot, damaged the runways, inflicted many casualties on Russian personnel, and torched a number of helicopters (Ukraine claims nine). Audio and video from the attack confirms that close to that number were indeed heavily damaged.

The damage done to the Berdyansk airbase in particular is a major setback to Russia. It was their primary helicopter hub in Zaporizhzhia oblast, which remains the focal point of Ukrainian offensive actions. While the lack of enough equipment to handle the vast minefields has in my assessment been the largest hindrance to Ukraine's offensive, helicopters have also posed a major problem. Classically, helicopters are one of the primary counters to armored vehicles, and Ukraine's goal has been to clear a path for a major armored push. Even when they have cleared a path from one defensive belt to the next, Russian drones, artillery, and helicopters have made advancing a grueling process. The loss of many helicopters is consequently a major blow to Russia. Depending on the exact amount of damage done, the attack may be the single largest hit to Russian aviation since their full invasion of Ukraine. Of note, it was also announced today that all 31 of the pledged Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine, right as Russia's helicopter fleet was dealt a reeling blow.

Russian milblogger Rybar has claimed that Ukrainian forces have fully crossed the Dnipro (meaning, beyond the islands) and seized the tiny hamlet of Poima and have entered Pishchanivka. Pishchanivka doesn't even have a thousand residents, yet it is a booming metropolis compared to Poima. Poima in of itself will not be enough for Ukraine to establish any sort of enduring presence, even if their intention is only to remain for a couple of days such as during the Kozachi Laheri raid. There has been no other confirmation or original reporting ona. Ukrainian crossing here, but Rybar was also the first to break the news of the Kozachi Laheri raid. That said, other reports they have made on the region in the past continue to be uncorroborated.

Putin has visited China, in a visit that was largely overshadowed by ATACMS news. China hit out against sanctions and "bloc confrontation", a clear shot at the United States, the EU, and other countries aligned with them. Putin called for "equal cooperation" while in China, likely trying to assert that Russia is an equal to China, not its underling. China pushed this issue earlier this year when they released a map showing a slice of Russian territory as Chinese territory, and at the time received minimal pushback from Russia.

Biden is now considering sending a request to Congress for $100 billion USD. This package would be a mega package encompassing many different things, including aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, other unspecified Indo-Pacific nations, as well as funding for enhancing border security of the United States. However, the House has, again, failed to get its leadership into order. As a result, any of these ideas thar Biden is considering will remain as such. While not related to the vote, it is worth noting that the latest leading candidate to become Speaker of the House, Jim Jordan, was sceptical of aid for Ukraine. This hypothetically leaves the door open for a successful candidate who also holds more pro-Ukraine views. Separately, the United States announced a $700 million plan which is designed to improve and modernize Ukrainian infrastructure. The EU is also planning a €50 billion multi-year plan to aid Ukraine's infrastructure.

The Rada has made additional steps towards aligning Ukrainian legislation with what the EU wants, particularly with oversight of politicians. Zelenskyy has said he is awaiting the legislation to arrive in his desk to sign it, and that it is a prerequisite for official accession talks with the EU to start. Zelenskyy also highlighted his desire for talks to commence by the end of the year.

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