Ukrainian forces have, according to Russian sources, launched a major assault on Verbove. The attack began with a heavy bombardment, followed by several thrusts spearheaded by the western-trained 82nd. Various Russian sources claim to have repelled the attacks. There has been little news from Kopani or Novoprokopivka today. It is possible that Ukraine was shopping to pull Russian troops from Verbove to Kopani before pivoting back to and attacking Verbove. As of now, there are no reports of Ukraine managing to take and hold new territory around Verbove.
Fighting has started to subside around Avdiivka, with the status of the hill north of the city unclear; it is likely currently not controlled by either side, as both seek to deprive the other of a key vantage point. Even if Russia can eventually recapture the hill, it will have come at a very steep cost, one which I find impossible to justify. And if Ukraine eventually retains control over the point, Russia's entire offensive will have only netted slices of a couple of fields, at the cost of dozens of armored vehicles and scores of soldiers. Simply put, this offensive wasn't worth it, and even the most charitable reading of it is still a pyrrhic victory for Russia.
Russia's offensive on the Kupyansk suburb of Synkivka has collapsed in spectacular fashion. Not only have they failed to capture the town, but Ukrainian troops have actually recaptured territory nearby Synkivka, and are now pushing up against the Russian-occupied Lyman Pershyi. If Ukraine can recapture Lyman Pershyi, the risk of Russia capturing Kupyansk will be effectively nullified. Ukraine would still have a lot more ground to make up to fully reverse Russia's slow advances here over the past many months, but it's clear that the current iteration of Russia's offensive is not going well for them.
Parts of the former Kakhovka reservoir now have plant cover around two meters high, meaning that infantry could hypothetically snake their way through under cover. Obstacles include uneven cover, the remainder of the Dnipro river, and possible mines and other detritus. It's also not clear (at least to me, an ocean away) if the soil has firmed up enough yet to allow heavy vehicles to cross. It has solidified enough to allow very light vehicles, such as ATVs, to hypothetically cross. The looming rainy season may also complicate these calculations as well. Regardless, one major obstacle to crossing the region (the absolute lack of any sort of cover) is largely alleviated now, which means that we may see cross-river operations here in the near future, probably after it has been figured out how the new terrain will handle the rainy season.
Poland has finished tallying up their votes, and the final result was fairly close. The ruling PiS wound up being the largest individual party, but will be unlikely to form a government, as the main opposition parties have ruled out working with PiS as of now. Hard right parties also didn't win enough seats for PiS to coalition with; the moderate parties combined won enough, and they will likely form the next Polish government. This is fantastic news for Ukraine, who will be able to continue relying on Poland for aid once the new government is formed. Inversely, Slovakia's government is being formed and has awarded the foreign ministry to Smer. This was no surprise, but does suggest that Slovakia will become a he as dache for Ukraine and the EU in the future. However, Slovakia has already given a large amount of military aid to Ukraine, and the main logistical hub for sending aid to Ukraine is in Poland. All in all, a very worthwhile tradeoff for Ukraine.
A flurry of shuttle diplomacy from several top American officials and a surprise visit by Biden later this week to Israel underscores just how much of a backseat Ukraine has taken compared to tensions in the Middle East. Some important American officials are visiting Ukraine, but the heavy hitters are all visiting Israel or other countries in the Middle East with vested interests in trying to restore peace. Even as Biden is expected to visit Israel, Zelenskyy's request to visit was reportedly turned down. Ukraine is working with both Israeli and Palestinian authorities to get Ukrainian citizenss out of the region; hundreds are in Gaza alone. Those who have managed to be evacuated have also lodged complaints that they had to pay for their own, rather expensive airfare.
One interesting connection between both conflicts at the moment is the small country or Qatar. Qatar has irked many in the west in the past not only for being a deeply repressive state, but also for holding closer ties to Iran than, say, Saudi Arabia which the west is typically willing to work with. Qatar has made many statements regarding the conflict between Israel and Palestine of late that have isolated it from the west; which means it may be in the ideal position to float a ceasefire proposal. Their statements probably have also helped them to secure another deal, which say the return of four Ukrainian children from Russia back to Ukraine. Qatar has claimed that this is just the first step, but have also warned that they are unsure of how many children they will be able to return under this mechanism which was secretly negotiated with Ukraine and Russia. The kidnapping of Ukrainian children is one of the main charges lobbed against Putin by the international criminal justice system, and is a big part of why he has an international warrant out for his arrest.