Gabriel B
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Ukraine - October 12, 2023

Ukraine - October 12, 2023

Oct 13, 2023

Footage from Russian drone strikes has revealed that Ukrainian troops have advanced north of Kopani, seizing some fortifications. Kopani now seems to have superceded Novoprokopivka and Verbove as being the primary focal point of Ukraine's efforts to advance in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukraine is stuttering towards Kopani, but their rate of advance is quite slow still. It's also worth noting that Kopani isn't behind any defensive belts that Ukraine hasn't already breached elsewhere. At best, it would serve as a launching pad to hit other points along the line that Ukraine breached by Verbove, where hopefully Ukraine might have more success at being able to exploit a breach. Such an eventuality is likely a couple of months away, if it even comes to pass.

Russia's push around Avdiivka has continued to suffer from a staggeringly high rate of armored losses. Some estimates from the past few days range from several dozen to triple digits of armored vehicles that Russia has lost while trying to advances towards the city. Some analysts have started to compare it to Vuhledar, where poor tactics and difficult terrain led to heavy Russian losses of armored vehicles. There hasn't been much in the way of footage of the hill itself by the coke plant north of Avdiivka that Russian sources claim to have captured. That said, I am inclined to believe that they did successfully capture it, as there is a large amount of footage showing Ukrainian positions in the plant itself, immediately to the southwest, being bombarded. The probable loss of the hill to Russia is a stinging blow, but Ukraine can likely stall further Russian advances for quite some time by entrenching themselves in the factory. However, the hill still gives Russia a very advantageous view over the plant and the city, where they will be able to exert some degree of fire control. Ukraine also knocked down a bridge between Horlivka and Avdiivka, snarling Russian logistics along one of their most important routes for bringing reinforcements towards Avdiivka from Bakhmut and beyond.

Elsewhere around the city of Donetsk, Russia is also launching heavy pushes, though none remotely compare to Russia's efforts to seize Avdiivka. These various thrusts have met with varying degrees of success, but by and large have accomplished little other than tying down Ukrainian troops. With Ukraine on the defensive in the whole area, shelling of Russian positions within Donetsk have reportedly decreased.

A Russian patrol ship, the Pavel Derzhavin allegedly sustained damaged after hitting a Russian naval mine. The alleged incident is highly unconfirmed, with only Ukrainian sources reporting on it, and no footage to back up their claims. It would be one of several embarrassing events that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has suffered from, but I am treating this story with a healthy dose of scepticism.

Denmark and Czechia have joined forces to provide a substantial trickle of military equipment to Ukraine over the next several months. Included in the plan are dozens of armored vehicles, thousands of conventional firearms, hundreds of machine guns and sniper rifles, artillery shells, and equipment to boost Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities.

Russia has been dealt successive international losses. The first was their anticipated failure to rejoin the United Nations Human Rights Council. Frankly, I was a little surprised that they made the attempt in the first place. The International Olympics Committee has suspended the Russian Olympics Committee for incorporating sports councils from the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. The IOC did not do the same when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, even though under international law and Russia's internal legal system, there was no difference between the two events. In each case, Russia seized territory internationally recognized as belonging to Ukraine and unilaterally annexed said territory. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) recognized Holodomor as a genocide of the Ukrainian people. The Council of Europe includes many countries which have not independently recognized Holodomor as a genocide; PACE's vote may pressure some of them into aligning their individual perspectives.

Of a more directly impactful nature, there has finally been some movement on using seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Belgium is planning on taxing seized Russian assets, and then using the revenue to support Ukraine. Estonia, frequently a leading state when it comes to new policies of aiding Ukraine, has straight up approved the transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine. Separately, the United States has for the first time slapped sanctions on companies for violating the price cap on Russian oil imposed by the G7, EU, United States, and others.

Israel has reportedly received small diameter bombs from the United States; similar ones were pledged to Ukraine months ago, but have yet to be delivered. As American aid to Israel makes headlines, the speed of deliveries is likely to frustrate many in Ukraine. The excuses provided by the United States and other countries in the past for rejecting certain types of aid or as to why it takes a while to deliver seema to fall flat when compared to the rapid speed that Israel is receiving munitions that are similar to those pledged to Ukraine.

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