Gabriel B
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Ukraine - October 06, 2023

Ukraine - October 06, 2023

Oct 07, 2023

Ukraine has reportedly "restarted" offensive operations against Verbove after a lengthy lull. Ukrainian forces are also maintaining heavy pressure east of Novoprokopivka, where they are trying to break through Russia's major belts of defenses, and around Kopani. However there have been no confirmed advances. For all intents and purposes, the front seems to be stalemated here even as Ukraine is still holding the initiative.

Russia has launched a new push west of the city of Donetsk around Marinka in an effort to fully secure the leveled city, which has been a Ukrainian stronghold since the initial 2014 conflict. Russia has slowly made progress in Marinka since 2022, but it has very much so been a "two steps forward, one step back" sort of situation with each hollowed out building being fought for one by one.

Russian troops have launched another serious drive to capture Synkivka, to the northeast of Kupyansk. As with their numerous previous attempts, this one so far also seems likely to stall out with no progress having been made today. With Ukrainian troops operating on a narrow strip along the east bank of the Oskil river, they can harass Russian supply lines along their final stretch towards Synkivka. This means that Russia has to weaken the strength of their main thrust as they need to leave additional troops along their flank to protect their supply routes. Russia has taken a serious effort at destroying Ukrainian crossing points along the Oskil river over the past few weeks, but Ukraine is still finding a way to maintain a strong presence to the east, likely a combination of tunnels and riverboats.

Russia has managed to shoot down one of their own warplanes for a second time over the past week or so. It's possible that this is just a bit of random chance; friendly fire happens in any major armed conflict. But it's worth noting in the event that there is another incident in the near future, which would suggest a serious lack of coordination and a communications breakdown between the different branches of Russia's military. It could instead also point to enhanced electronic warfare capabilities by Ukraine.

Several snippets of video, purportedly showing a limited number of Ukrainian troops active in Sudan have been posted online. All three have been geolocated to the area around Khartoum, Sudan's capital city, which has seen some of the fiercest fighting between the government and the rebel RSF forces backed by the Wagner Group. There are no identifying marks on the gear being used in the videos which would prove the presence of Ukrainian forces, nor are any Ukrainian voices heard. The footage is quite generic and doesn't show any direct combat, but the message is clear enough as the footage has been widely distributed by Ukrainian channels; Ukraine is capable and willing to deploy special forces abroad to attack Russian assets. However, this may be a major misrepresentation of the actual events happening in the footage. After all, sending special forces to fight against the Wagner Group, which is largely no longer an active combatant against Ukraine, does not seem to be an efficient use of resources.

The United States is looking at further ways to bypass Congress so that aid to Ukraine can continue. First was the announcement that seized Iranian military hardware would be sent to Ukraine. Now the United States is looking at using grants and loans from the State Department. This particular program was meant for multiple countries, not just Ukraine, but funding for Ukraine directly is running low and cooperation from a functional Congress seems unlikely. The United States is also looking at deploying Iron Dome air defense batteries to Poland, and then having Poland send Patriot batteries to Ukraine. Israel, which co-produced the Iron Dome, has vetoed their transfer to Ukraine. But sending them to Poland may be more palatable to the Israeli government, which maintains a complicated relationship with Russia. Ukraine has also asserted that the EU and the United States are considering funding Ukraine with seized Russian assets. However, this may be wishful thinking as the United States and the EU (as a whole) have largely balked at implementing such a mechanism.

Particularly as events around Turkey remain quite tense, and therefore it's far from clear whether or not Erdogan will stick to his word, Sweden is continuing to demur on if they will transfer warplanes to Ukraine. However, they have publicly confirmed that they are still considering the subject. I imagine the transfer will happen, but only after Sweden is admitted into NATO. The United States and Turkey are sniping at one another publicly even as they are engaging one another to try to smooth things over since a Turkish drone was shot down by American troops. Turkey has maintained their brutal air campaign against the AANES; depending on how the situation unfolds, it could impact both American and Turkish aid to Ukraine, but it could also rope in Russia, as they provide very limited protection to parts of the AANES as well.

There is another security incident involving Turkey. A naval mine struck a Turkish cargo ship off the coast of Romania, dealing minor damage. Ukraine has expended a lot of effort into pushing back the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and has managed to slightly lift Russia's embargo. However, the presence of naval mines pose a serious threat to Ukraine's ability to lift the confidence of companies which might be willing to ignore Russia's blockade otherwise.

Moldova has accused the deceased Prigozhin of plotting a coup in Moldova earlier in the year. This would be far from the first accusation that Moleova has made against Russia or its proxies of planning to overthrow the Moldovan government. The situation in Moldova has been fragile for quite a while, but the government has survived a series of violent incidents and protest movements, which were backed by Russia. The accusation comes alongside other overtly pro-western moves from Molsova such as offering to transit gas for free from the EU to Ukraine during the upcoming colder months.

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